Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday. On D3/Saturday, a midlevel shortwave ridge will be in place over the southern Rockies, with enhanced west-northwest flow along the northern periphery of this feature. This will promote lee troughing/weak lee cyclogenesis and locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Overall, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions and marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, a southern-stream jet max will track eastward from southern CA and overspread the southern Rockies on D4/Sunday. The strong westerly downslope flow will maintain a weak lee cyclone (ahead of an approaching cold front from the north) and favor dry/windy conditions across southeast NM into West TX. While locally elevated conditions are possible, marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear minimal. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Critical fire-weather conditions are not expected during the extended forecast period, though locally elevated conditions are possible over the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday. On D3/Saturday, a midlevel shortwave ridge will be in place over the southern Rockies, with enhanced west-northwest flow along the northern periphery of this feature. This will promote lee troughing/weak lee cyclogenesis and locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Overall, a minimal overlap of dry/breezy conditions and marginal fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, a southern-stream jet max will track eastward from southern CA and overspread the southern Rockies on D4/Sunday. The strong westerly downslope flow will maintain a weak lee cyclone (ahead of an approaching cold front from the north) and favor dry/windy conditions across southeast NM into West TX. While locally elevated conditions are possible, marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns appear minimal. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. Little if any lightning activity is expected across the CONUS through tonight, as the air mass dries over far southern FL and an upper trough approaches the West Coast late. While showers are expected into northern CA tonight, thunderstorms are unlikely through 12Z Friday. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023/ A large upper low remains over the mid MS Valley today, with dry and stable conditions over the nation. Thunderstorms that earlier occurred near the FL Keys have move eastward and away from the coast. Other thunderstorms may occur off the coast of southeast New England tonight. But no organized thunderstorms are expected over the CONUS today or tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. Little if any lightning activity is expected across the CONUS through tonight, as the air mass dries over far southern FL and an upper trough approaches the West Coast late. While showers are expected into northern CA tonight, thunderstorms are unlikely through 12Z Friday. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023/ A large upper low remains over the mid MS Valley today, with dry and stable conditions over the nation. Thunderstorms that earlier occurred near the FL Keys have move eastward and away from the coast. Other thunderstorms may occur off the coast of southeast New England tonight. But no organized thunderstorms are expected over the CONUS today or tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. Little if any lightning activity is expected across the CONUS through tonight, as the air mass dries over far southern FL and an upper trough approaches the West Coast late. While showers are expected into northern CA tonight, thunderstorms are unlikely through 12Z Friday. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023/ A large upper low remains over the mid MS Valley today, with dry and stable conditions over the nation. Thunderstorms that earlier occurred near the FL Keys have move eastward and away from the coast. Other thunderstorms may occur off the coast of southeast New England tonight. But no organized thunderstorms are expected over the CONUS today or tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. Little if any lightning activity is expected across the CONUS through tonight, as the air mass dries over far southern FL and an upper trough approaches the West Coast late. While showers are expected into northern CA tonight, thunderstorms are unlikely through 12Z Friday. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023/ A large upper low remains over the mid MS Valley today, with dry and stable conditions over the nation. Thunderstorms that earlier occurred near the FL Keys have move eastward and away from the coast. Other thunderstorms may occur off the coast of southeast New England tonight. But no organized thunderstorms are expected over the CONUS today or tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. Little if any lightning activity is expected across the CONUS through tonight, as the air mass dries over far southern FL and an upper trough approaches the West Coast late. While showers are expected into northern CA tonight, thunderstorms are unlikely through 12Z Friday. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023/ A large upper low remains over the mid MS Valley today, with dry and stable conditions over the nation. Thunderstorms that earlier occurred near the FL Keys have move eastward and away from the coast. Other thunderstorms may occur off the coast of southeast New England tonight. But no organized thunderstorms are expected over the CONUS today or tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. Little if any lightning activity is expected across the CONUS through tonight, as the air mass dries over far southern FL and an upper trough approaches the West Coast late. While showers are expected into northern CA tonight, thunderstorms are unlikely through 12Z Friday. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023/ A large upper low remains over the mid MS Valley today, with dry and stable conditions over the nation. Thunderstorms that earlier occurred near the FL Keys have move eastward and away from the coast. Other thunderstorms may occur off the coast of southeast New England tonight. But no organized thunderstorms are expected over the CONUS today or tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. Little if any lightning activity is expected across the CONUS through tonight, as the air mass dries over far southern FL and an upper trough approaches the West Coast late. While showers are expected into northern CA tonight, thunderstorms are unlikely through 12Z Friday. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023/ A large upper low remains over the mid MS Valley today, with dry and stable conditions over the nation. Thunderstorms that earlier occurred near the FL Keys have move eastward and away from the coast. Other thunderstorms may occur off the coast of southeast New England tonight. But no organized thunderstorms are expected over the CONUS today or tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes are needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes are needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes are needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes are needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes are needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes are needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some moderately breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Friday as the mid-level trough shifts eastward. However, temperatures will be cool and fuels remain moist across these areas. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal. Elsewhere, moist fuels are present across most of the CONUS which precludes any fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper-air pattern will exist on Friday, with a large upper trough and low over the eastern CONUS, and a ridge over the West. Another upper trough will affect the West Coast, bringing cooling aloft and increasing midlevel moisture. Weak elevated instability may support sporadic lightning flashes within the warm advection zone preceding the cold front from northern CA into western OR, with further destabilization taking place overnight as the cold front approaches the Coast. The greatest threat of isolated thunderstorms will be after 06Z, coincident with the coolest temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings show little if any threat of severe weather, given weakening shear beneath the upper trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain offshore winds, with no thunderstorms forecast across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper-air pattern will exist on Friday, with a large upper trough and low over the eastern CONUS, and a ridge over the West. Another upper trough will affect the West Coast, bringing cooling aloft and increasing midlevel moisture. Weak elevated instability may support sporadic lightning flashes within the warm advection zone preceding the cold front from northern CA into western OR, with further destabilization taking place overnight as the cold front approaches the Coast. The greatest threat of isolated thunderstorms will be after 06Z, coincident with the coolest temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings show little if any threat of severe weather, given weakening shear beneath the upper trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain offshore winds, with no thunderstorms forecast across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper-air pattern will exist on Friday, with a large upper trough and low over the eastern CONUS, and a ridge over the West. Another upper trough will affect the West Coast, bringing cooling aloft and increasing midlevel moisture. Weak elevated instability may support sporadic lightning flashes within the warm advection zone preceding the cold front from northern CA into western OR, with further destabilization taking place overnight as the cold front approaches the Coast. The greatest threat of isolated thunderstorms will be after 06Z, coincident with the coolest temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings show little if any threat of severe weather, given weakening shear beneath the upper trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain offshore winds, with no thunderstorms forecast across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper-air pattern will exist on Friday, with a large upper trough and low over the eastern CONUS, and a ridge over the West. Another upper trough will affect the West Coast, bringing cooling aloft and increasing midlevel moisture. Weak elevated instability may support sporadic lightning flashes within the warm advection zone preceding the cold front from northern CA into western OR, with further destabilization taking place overnight as the cold front approaches the Coast. The greatest threat of isolated thunderstorms will be after 06Z, coincident with the coolest temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings show little if any threat of severe weather, given weakening shear beneath the upper trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain offshore winds, with no thunderstorms forecast across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper-air pattern will exist on Friday, with a large upper trough and low over the eastern CONUS, and a ridge over the West. Another upper trough will affect the West Coast, bringing cooling aloft and increasing midlevel moisture. Weak elevated instability may support sporadic lightning flashes within the warm advection zone preceding the cold front from northern CA into western OR, with further destabilization taking place overnight as the cold front approaches the Coast. The greatest threat of isolated thunderstorms will be after 06Z, coincident with the coolest temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings show little if any threat of severe weather, given weakening shear beneath the upper trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain offshore winds, with no thunderstorms forecast across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/28/2023 Read more