Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

MD 0028 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4... FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0905 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle into north FL and south-central GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 4... Valid 091505Z - 091630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for embedded QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds will continue this morning. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, with occasional embedded supercell structures, is ongoing this morning across parts of the FL Panhandle into south/central GA. Multiple CC minima/tornadic circulations have been observed with this line over the past several hours. Modifying the 12Z TLH sounding for current surface observations yields only weak MLCAPE. Still, rapid low-level moisture advection is occurring ahead of the line, and even modest daytime heating should allow for weak destabilization downstream. Current expectations are for the tornado threat to continue eastward across south-central GA and north FL, as area VWPs show extremely strong low-level flow (1 km southerly winds in excess of 70 kt from KTLH) and 0-1 km SRH approaching 600 m2/s2 that will easily support embedded QLCS circulations. Straight-line severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph will also remain a threat with the line given the strength of the low-level flow. ..Gleason.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29718528 31998449 32288331 32058257 31408249 30198264 29758290 29588342 29908397 29858433 29608471 29528499 29598526 29718528 Read more

MD 0027 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 4... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0832 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 4... Valid 091432Z - 091600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado watch 4 may need to be expanded into portions of central and eastern Georgia. DISCUSSION...Low 60s dewpoints have advected northward across central Georgia which has led to some weak surface based instability north of Tornado watch 4. Continued moisture advection will continue to destabilize this region which will lead to an increasing damaging wind threat through the morning. In addition, a few line-embedded tornadic circulations are possible, particularly if mid 60s dewpoints can advect into the region and bring more substantial surface based instability. ..Bentley/Hart.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC... LAT...LON 32168459 33368398 33678222 32988218 32288239 32168459 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW AAF TO 25 SSE PFN TO 25 NNE MAI TO 30 NE DHN TO 25 SE CSG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027 ..GLEASON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-091540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-023-029-037-039-041-045-047-063-065-067-073-077-079- 121-123-129-091540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN COLUMBIA DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GILCHRIST GULF HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-005-007-017-019-027-037-061-065-069-071-075-081-087-091- Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW AAF TO 25 SSE PFN TO 25 NNE MAI TO 30 NE DHN TO 25 SE CSG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027 ..GLEASON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-091540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC005-013-023-029-037-039-041-045-047-063-065-067-073-077-079- 121-123-129-091540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN COLUMBIA DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GILCHRIST GULF HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-005-007-017-019-027-037-061-065-069-071-075-081-087-091- Read more

MD 0026 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 3... FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle...southern Alabama...and southwest Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 3... Valid 091136Z - 091430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for supercells producing tornadoes and severe wind persists across eastern parts of Tornado Watch 3, with an additional watch likely for areas east/northeast prior to 13Z. DISCUSSION...A small but volatile warm sector currently exists across the FL Panhandle, and this air mass will likely spread into parts of southern AL and southwest GA later this morning. Shear remains extreme with 0-1 km SRH values between 500-600 m2/s2, which is also coincident with the warm front. This boundary is forecast to move north, though progression may be slow due to ongoing precipitation. The supercell near Holmes County FL is likely right on the warm front. Depending on boundary motion, a tornado risk may remain for a short time prior to the storm moving over the cooler air to the north. Farther south, an impressive supercell, likely tornadic and producing hail, is now moving into Bay County from the Gulf Of Mexico. These cells, as well as any additional cells that form ahead of the cold front/squall line, could result in strong tornadoes. ..Jewell.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30138723 31258662 32118629 32628581 32858523 32888442 32698380 32198325 31818295 31088286 30498316 29968389 29488490 29568641 29828731 30008728 30138723 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... CORRECTED FOR FL THUNDERSTORM LINE. ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Discussion... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night. Downstream of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains by the end of the period. As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization. This appears likely to be aided by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at 100-120 kt around 500 mb). Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. The mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the (roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas. This may gradually evolve into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more