Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level cyclone over the southern CONUS will move eastward with the surface low moving into the mid MS Valley early this morning. Strong low-level winds should remain behind the low and the trailing cold front as it moves into the Gulf. A few hours of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are possible across parts of deep south TX this morning through the early afternoon. Gusts of 25-30 mph with humidity below 25% may support a few hours of meteorological elevated fire-weather conditions before winds begin to weaken later in the day. However, near-normal fuel moisture and the brief overlap of the strongest dry and windy conditions suggest any fire-weather concerns will remain relatively low end and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas. ...Southeast states... A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated 100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley. A line of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf. These storms will progress rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist and marginally unstable air mass northward. The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold front. However, model guidance suggests that the front will overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the squall line. Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024 Read more