Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Florida... Scattered storms continue to develop ahead of a front and within the moist air mass, although heating has become quite limited. Convergence is relatively weak along the boundary, which has become relatively stationary, but the uncapped air mass to the south along with favorable time of day should continue to support scattered development with MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is favorable for fast-moving and sustained storms with 50-60 kt, and winds do veer with height especially over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As such, a storm or two could become a supercell this afternoon with the risk of a tornado, but overall coverage of severe storms should remain isolated given minimal large-scale support and gradually veering low-level winds. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Florida... Scattered storms continue to develop ahead of a front and within the moist air mass, although heating has become quite limited. Convergence is relatively weak along the boundary, which has become relatively stationary, but the uncapped air mass to the south along with favorable time of day should continue to support scattered development with MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is favorable for fast-moving and sustained storms with 50-60 kt, and winds do veer with height especially over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As such, a storm or two could become a supercell this afternoon with the risk of a tornado, but overall coverage of severe storms should remain isolated given minimal large-scale support and gradually veering low-level winds. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Florida... Scattered storms continue to develop ahead of a front and within the moist air mass, although heating has become quite limited. Convergence is relatively weak along the boundary, which has become relatively stationary, but the uncapped air mass to the south along with favorable time of day should continue to support scattered development with MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is favorable for fast-moving and sustained storms with 50-60 kt, and winds do veer with height especially over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As such, a storm or two could become a supercell this afternoon with the risk of a tornado, but overall coverage of severe storms should remain isolated given minimal large-scale support and gradually veering low-level winds. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Florida... Scattered storms continue to develop ahead of a front and within the moist air mass, although heating has become quite limited. Convergence is relatively weak along the boundary, which has become relatively stationary, but the uncapped air mass to the south along with favorable time of day should continue to support scattered development with MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is favorable for fast-moving and sustained storms with 50-60 kt, and winds do veer with height especially over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As such, a storm or two could become a supercell this afternoon with the risk of a tornado, but overall coverage of severe storms should remain isolated given minimal large-scale support and gradually veering low-level winds. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Florida... Scattered storms continue to develop ahead of a front and within the moist air mass, although heating has become quite limited. Convergence is relatively weak along the boundary, which has become relatively stationary, but the uncapped air mass to the south along with favorable time of day should continue to support scattered development with MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is favorable for fast-moving and sustained storms with 50-60 kt, and winds do veer with height especially over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As such, a storm or two could become a supercell this afternoon with the risk of a tornado, but overall coverage of severe storms should remain isolated given minimal large-scale support and gradually veering low-level winds. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Florida... Scattered storms continue to develop ahead of a front and within the moist air mass, although heating has become quite limited. Convergence is relatively weak along the boundary, which has become relatively stationary, but the uncapped air mass to the south along with favorable time of day should continue to support scattered development with MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is favorable for fast-moving and sustained storms with 50-60 kt, and winds do veer with height especially over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As such, a storm or two could become a supercell this afternoon with the risk of a tornado, but overall coverage of severe storms should remain isolated given minimal large-scale support and gradually veering low-level winds. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Florida... Scattered storms continue to develop ahead of a front and within the moist air mass, although heating has become quite limited. Convergence is relatively weak along the boundary, which has become relatively stationary, but the uncapped air mass to the south along with favorable time of day should continue to support scattered development with MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is favorable for fast-moving and sustained storms with 50-60 kt, and winds do veer with height especially over the eastern part of the Peninsula. As such, a storm or two could become a supercell this afternoon with the risk of a tornado, but overall coverage of severe storms should remain isolated given minimal large-scale support and gradually veering low-level winds. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An embedded midlevel impulse accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies during the day, promoting lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Through the afternoon, the lee cyclone should evolve southward into the southern High Plains, where warmer surface temperatures and reduced static stability will be in place. In response, breezy surface winds are expected along/south of the lee cyclone over the southern High Plains, where downslope warming/drying will contribute to modest RH reductions. The combination of 15-20 mph west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions; however, marginal fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161617Z - 161815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms moving onto the Florida west coast within the next hour may pose a risk of damaging winds. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A band of convection focused along a cold front is slowly approaching the FL west coast per recent radar/satellite imagery. GOES IR and lightning trends show a few intensifying updrafts within the line, denoted by concentrated lightning clusters and cooling cloud top temperatures. This trend should continue as the line moves onshore where temperatures are warming into the low/mid 70s and MLCAPE values are slowly increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg. VWP observations from KTBW show 0-6 km BWD values around 50-60 knots, but deep-layer shear vectors are largely oriented along the boundary with weak line-normal deep-layer shear. This may limit the overall organization/intensity of the line, but may support stronger embedded segments capable of damaging winds. This kinematic regime is not overly favorable for line-embedded tornadoes, but a brief tornado appears possible if a portion of the line can become more oriented from southeast to northwest. Confidence in this scenario is low at this time given recent storm trends, and a damaging wind risk appears more probable. Regardless, the overall severe threat appears too limited to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Thompson.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28268276 28578263 28918271 29598115 29228100 28878081 28458073 28238066 28158070 27668245 27638262 27658273 27868287 28028286 28268276 Read more

MD 0073 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 161349Z - 161745Z SUMMARY...Locally moderate winter precipitation rates will spread northeastward this morning, with some modest ice accretion possible where freezing rain persists. DISCUSSION...A surface low currently off of the Mid Atlantic coast is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves northeast toward coastal southern New England this morning. Multiple waves of light to locally moderate precipitation are ongoing and will continue to spread northeastward in conjunction with the surface low. While interior portions of the Northeast will likely continue to see snow (with generally light to moderate rates) this morning, low-level warm advection will support a transition from snow to sleet across parts of southern New England, with freezing rain persisting over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. As the low deepens offshore, a modest uptick in precipitation intensity will be possible through the morning. While rates will likely remain light to locally moderate, antecedent cold conditions (with temperatures initially in the 20s F) may result in relatively efficient ice accretion in areas that transition to freezing rain. Pockets of moderate sleet/snow will also be possible into parts of southern New England. Low-level warm advection will support a gradual transition to rain along the Mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts, but subfreezing temperatures may persist inland through the morning. ..Dean.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...LWX... LAT...LON 39497504 38747620 38747652 39137660 39727603 41187450 42147322 42607220 42787134 42627089 42347101 41377217 40937321 40307434 39497504 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more