Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Thunderstorms remain unlikely across the CONUS today, with cool and/or stable air over land. Sporadic weak convection may produce a few lightning flashes from the FL Straits into the Bahamas, aided by warm water temperature beneath a midlevel moist plume. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 01/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies on D2/Thursday, favoring lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. Along/south of the lee trough, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield two corridors of strong/gusty surface winds. The northern corridor will extend from east-central NM into the western portion of the TX South Plains, though RH reductions will be marginal here (i.e., 20-25 percent). Farther south, a second belt of sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph (with higher gusts) is expected across the TX Trans-Pecos region. Here, warmer surface temperatures will support 15-20 percent RH, and with slightly more receptive fuels, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. With that said, the overall threat appears too localized for Elevated highlights given modestly receptive fuels at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will persist over much of the CONUS on Thursday, primarily from the Rockies eastward. An upper ridge along the West Coast will gradually shift east toward the Great Basin by Friday morning. An embedded shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward out of MT and into the northern/central Plains during the day, with a deepening upper low over the Great Lakes. South of these systems, high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the Southeast, with only weak moisture return through Friday morning over FL and southern GA. Meanwhile, another strong cold front will surge south across the Plains in association with the MT wave. Although very weak instability is indicated over parts of FL, lack of lift suggests little thunderstorm activity will occur except perhaps over a small portion of far southern FL during peak heating. ..Jewell.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the conterminous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... The majority of the CONUS is dominated by a continental polar air mass, with the associated front now into the Bahamas/Cuba/northern Yucatan. Substantial low-level moisture and buoyancy are likely to remain to the south of FL, and little to no buoyancy is expected with the shortwave trough over the Great Basin/central Rockies. Thus, thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday morning. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/17/2024 Read more