Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough over the western U.S. early in the period will slowly shift east toward the Rockies and adjacent High Plains through at least Day 6/Tue. Beyond Tuesday, most medium-range guidance depicts a mean upper trough roughly over the High Plains, with a series of shortwave ejecting east/northeast into the Mid-South/Midwest vicinity Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. This overall pattern will support long-duration deep-layer southwesterly flow across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast states and the Mid-South. As a result, Gulf moisture is expected to return northward, first across the Texas coastal vicinity on Day 4/Sun before also increasing across much of the rest of the Gulf coast states the remainder of the period. Given increased southwesterly flow overspreading returning Gulf moisture, at least some low-end severe potential appears possible across coastal TX early in the period. Some severe potential could then shift east across the Gulf Coast states later in the period, (around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu) when some guidance shows a stronger shortwave trough ejecting over the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity in conjunction with a deeper surface low and cold front. Severe potential appears too low early in the period to include 15 percent probabilities. Uncertainty in timing and latitudinal position of the possible late-period shortwave trough also precludes probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, this pattern change could support increasing severe potential with time across Gulf coast areas, which may necessitate probabilities in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough over the western U.S. early in the period will slowly shift east toward the Rockies and adjacent High Plains through at least Day 6/Tue. Beyond Tuesday, most medium-range guidance depicts a mean upper trough roughly over the High Plains, with a series of shortwave ejecting east/northeast into the Mid-South/Midwest vicinity Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. This overall pattern will support long-duration deep-layer southwesterly flow across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast states and the Mid-South. As a result, Gulf moisture is expected to return northward, first across the Texas coastal vicinity on Day 4/Sun before also increasing across much of the rest of the Gulf coast states the remainder of the period. Given increased southwesterly flow overspreading returning Gulf moisture, at least some low-end severe potential appears possible across coastal TX early in the period. Some severe potential could then shift east across the Gulf Coast states later in the period, (around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu) when some guidance shows a stronger shortwave trough ejecting over the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity in conjunction with a deeper surface low and cold front. Severe potential appears too low early in the period to include 15 percent probabilities. Uncertainty in timing and latitudinal position of the possible late-period shortwave trough also precludes probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, this pattern change could support increasing severe potential with time across Gulf coast areas, which may necessitate probabilities in the coming days. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning and shift east toward the Ohio Valley by early Sunday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a dry and stable boundary layer across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. Further west, an upper trough will shift east across the western U.S. While moderate deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will maintain a relatively moist airmass, cool boundary-layer temperatures and poor lapse rates will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning and shift east toward the Ohio Valley by early Sunday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a dry and stable boundary layer across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. Further west, an upper trough will shift east across the western U.S. While moderate deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will maintain a relatively moist airmass, cool boundary-layer temperatures and poor lapse rates will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning and shift east toward the Ohio Valley by early Sunday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a dry and stable boundary layer across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. Further west, an upper trough will shift east across the western U.S. While moderate deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will maintain a relatively moist airmass, cool boundary-layer temperatures and poor lapse rates will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning and shift east toward the Ohio Valley by early Sunday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a dry and stable boundary layer across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. Further west, an upper trough will shift east across the western U.S. While moderate deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will maintain a relatively moist airmass, cool boundary-layer temperatures and poor lapse rates will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning and shift east toward the Ohio Valley by early Sunday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a dry and stable boundary layer across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. Further west, an upper trough will shift east across the western U.S. While moderate deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will maintain a relatively moist airmass, cool boundary-layer temperatures and poor lapse rates will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley Saturday morning and shift east toward the Ohio Valley by early Sunday. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a dry and stable boundary layer across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. Further west, an upper trough will shift east across the western U.S. While moderate deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will maintain a relatively moist airmass, cool boundary-layer temperatures and poor lapse rates will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will quickly move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend from eastern VA/NC into northern FL by late morning. Ahead of the front across the FL Peninsula, 60s F dewpoints will be in place. Despite adequate low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft will foster poor lapse rates and layers of weak capping. As a result, little instability will exist across the FL Peninsula. Behind the front, strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains, and another cold, stable airmass will filter into much of the CONUS. As such, thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will quickly move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend from eastern VA/NC into northern FL by late morning. Ahead of the front across the FL Peninsula, 60s F dewpoints will be in place. Despite adequate low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft will foster poor lapse rates and layers of weak capping. As a result, little instability will exist across the FL Peninsula. Behind the front, strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains, and another cold, stable airmass will filter into much of the CONUS. As such, thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will quickly move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend from eastern VA/NC into northern FL by late morning. Ahead of the front across the FL Peninsula, 60s F dewpoints will be in place. Despite adequate low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft will foster poor lapse rates and layers of weak capping. As a result, little instability will exist across the FL Peninsula. Behind the front, strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains, and another cold, stable airmass will filter into much of the CONUS. As such, thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will quickly move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend from eastern VA/NC into northern FL by late morning. Ahead of the front across the FL Peninsula, 60s F dewpoints will be in place. Despite adequate low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft will foster poor lapse rates and layers of weak capping. As a result, little instability will exist across the FL Peninsula. Behind the front, strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains, and another cold, stable airmass will filter into much of the CONUS. As such, thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will quickly move offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning. A trailing cold front will extend from eastern VA/NC into northern FL by late morning. Ahead of the front across the FL Peninsula, 60s F dewpoints will be in place. Despite adequate low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft will foster poor lapse rates and layers of weak capping. As a result, little instability will exist across the FL Peninsula. Behind the front, strong surface high pressure will build over the Plains, and another cold, stable airmass will filter into much of the CONUS. As such, thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida later today. ...South FL... Weak large-scale forcing will be noted across the FL Peninsula today as broad west-southwesterly flow persists along the southern portions of a dominant MS Valley trough. While negligible height changes are expected across this region, weak surface boundary should advance north across the FL Straits, enhancing low-level convergence, albeit meager. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels will become buoyant by early afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s. While lapse rates will remain poor, weak warm advection and diurnal heating may contribute to a few showers capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, any lightning should remain sparse. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida later today. ...South FL... Weak large-scale forcing will be noted across the FL Peninsula today as broad west-southwesterly flow persists along the southern portions of a dominant MS Valley trough. While negligible height changes are expected across this region, weak surface boundary should advance north across the FL Straits, enhancing low-level convergence, albeit meager. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels will become buoyant by early afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s. While lapse rates will remain poor, weak warm advection and diurnal heating may contribute to a few showers capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, any lightning should remain sparse. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida later today. ...South FL... Weak large-scale forcing will be noted across the FL Peninsula today as broad west-southwesterly flow persists along the southern portions of a dominant MS Valley trough. While negligible height changes are expected across this region, weak surface boundary should advance north across the FL Straits, enhancing low-level convergence, albeit meager. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels will become buoyant by early afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s. While lapse rates will remain poor, weak warm advection and diurnal heating may contribute to a few showers capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, any lightning should remain sparse. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida later today. ...South FL... Weak large-scale forcing will be noted across the FL Peninsula today as broad west-southwesterly flow persists along the southern portions of a dominant MS Valley trough. While negligible height changes are expected across this region, weak surface boundary should advance north across the FL Straits, enhancing low-level convergence, albeit meager. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels will become buoyant by early afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s. While lapse rates will remain poor, weak warm advection and diurnal heating may contribute to a few showers capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, any lightning should remain sparse. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida later today. ...South FL... Weak large-scale forcing will be noted across the FL Peninsula today as broad west-southwesterly flow persists along the southern portions of a dominant MS Valley trough. While negligible height changes are expected across this region, weak surface boundary should advance north across the FL Straits, enhancing low-level convergence, albeit meager. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels will become buoyant by early afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s. While lapse rates will remain poor, weak warm advection and diurnal heating may contribute to a few showers capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, any lightning should remain sparse. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Minimal fire-weather concerns for D2/Friday, as cold post-frontal air infiltrates much of the central CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more