Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A broad longwave trough will slowly shift east over the central to the eastern states with the embedded primary shortwave impulse moving across the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians. This will induce primary cyclogenesis near the Mid-Atlantic to New England coasts, with weaker secondary cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf to off the South Atlantic coast. ...FL Peninsula... Initially elevated, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor ahead of the aforementioned cyclogenesis in the northeast Gulf. Some of this activity may become surface based by late morning in the north-central FL vicinity, along the northern extent of mid to upper 60s surface dew points. The temporal window for this to occur appears relatively limited, as cyclogenesis quickly focuses off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, the trailing surface cold front will push southeast, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of this boundary from late morning into the afternoon. West-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the troposphere, yielding strong, nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear. As such, a few supercells are probable, tending to focus across the north part of central FL during the morning to the south part in the afternoon. Low-level winds will tend to become more veered with time, suggesting hodograph curvature will be modest towards peak boundary-layer heating. Storm-scale/boundary interactions will probably be necessary for brief tornado development. Otherwise, isolated strong gusts will be possible in the deepest cores before convection wanes towards early evening. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A broad longwave trough will slowly shift east over the central to the eastern states with the embedded primary shortwave impulse moving across the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians. This will induce primary cyclogenesis near the Mid-Atlantic to New England coasts, with weaker secondary cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf to off the South Atlantic coast. ...FL Peninsula... Initially elevated, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor ahead of the aforementioned cyclogenesis in the northeast Gulf. Some of this activity may become surface based by late morning in the north-central FL vicinity, along the northern extent of mid to upper 60s surface dew points. The temporal window for this to occur appears relatively limited, as cyclogenesis quickly focuses off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, the trailing surface cold front will push southeast, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of this boundary from late morning into the afternoon. West-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the troposphere, yielding strong, nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear. As such, a few supercells are probable, tending to focus across the north part of central FL during the morning to the south part in the afternoon. Low-level winds will tend to become more veered with time, suggesting hodograph curvature will be modest towards peak boundary-layer heating. Storm-scale/boundary interactions will probably be necessary for brief tornado development. Otherwise, isolated strong gusts will be possible in the deepest cores before convection wanes towards early evening. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A broad longwave trough will slowly shift east over the central to the eastern states with the embedded primary shortwave impulse moving across the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians. This will induce primary cyclogenesis near the Mid-Atlantic to New England coasts, with weaker secondary cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf to off the South Atlantic coast. ...FL Peninsula... Initially elevated, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor ahead of the aforementioned cyclogenesis in the northeast Gulf. Some of this activity may become surface based by late morning in the north-central FL vicinity, along the northern extent of mid to upper 60s surface dew points. The temporal window for this to occur appears relatively limited, as cyclogenesis quickly focuses off the Atlantic coast. In its wake, the trailing surface cold front will push southeast, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along/ahead of this boundary from late morning into the afternoon. West-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the troposphere, yielding strong, nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear. As such, a few supercells are probable, tending to focus across the north part of central FL during the morning to the south part in the afternoon. Low-level winds will tend to become more veered with time, suggesting hodograph curvature will be modest towards peak boundary-layer heating. Storm-scale/boundary interactions will probably be necessary for brief tornado development. Otherwise, isolated strong gusts will be possible in the deepest cores before convection wanes towards early evening. ..Grams/Weinman.. 01/16/2024 Read more

MD 0071 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN LA...SOUTH-CENTRAL MS...NORTHERN AL...NORTHWEST GA...AND SOUTHEAST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...Southern LA...south-central MS...northern AL...northwest GA...and southeast TN Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 160132Z - 160600Z SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation (primarily freezing rain and sleet) will continue across portions of the Southeast into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams show a continuation of light freezing rain extending from southern LA northeastward into southeast TN this evening. This precipitation is generally being aided by a persistent low-level frontogenetic circulation and steady low-level warm advection across the region. This forcing for ascent should remain fairly persistent and quasi-stationary through about 06Z, with a slight southeastward evolution of the frontogenetic band with time. The 00Z observed JAN sounding depicts an 8 dec C warm nose atop a substantial (albeit shallow) sub-freezing layer (minimum wet bulb temperature of -8 deg C). Any descending ice should completely melt before re-freezing at the surface, suggesting that freezing rain will remain the predominant precipitation type. Farther north toward northwest GA and southeast TN, a deeper sub-freezing layer and minimal warm nose may favor a mix of sleet and freezing rain. While dry air aloft overspreading the region (evident in water vapor imagery and observed/forecast soundings) and modest forcing for ascent may temper overall precipitation rates, the quasi-stationary forcing will support a fairly prolonged period of light to moderate freezing rain and sleet, with localized bursts of higher rates possible in the more robust cores. Colder surface temperatures will gradually spread southeastward and support freezing rain in areas currently above freezing during the next few hours (i.e., portions of southeast LA and east-central MS). ..Weinman.. 01/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30269318 30779292 31449196 32569019 34488706 35308530 35408476 35128432 34638466 33158682 31378909 30519025 29549117 29349200 29439257 29729316 30269318 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...FL... The pair of supercells which produced a pair of reported tornadoes along the Atlantic Coast east of Lake Okeechobee earlier has become confined offshore. An upstream storm cluster between Lake Okeechobee and Fort Myers has slowly been progressing east. This activity will probably slowly decay through the rest of the evening as afternoon guidance indicates weakening low-level convergence along the mesoscale outflow boundary. Convergence will become more focused farther north across the northeast Gulf into north FL during the early morning. This should support isolated elevated thunderstorms spreading inland between 08-12Z. Strong deep-layer shear may yield mid-level updraft rotation. However, weak mid-level lapse rates coupled with near-surface stability suggests severe potential should be negligible through 12Z. ..Grams.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...FL... The pair of supercells which produced a pair of reported tornadoes along the Atlantic Coast east of Lake Okeechobee earlier has become confined offshore. An upstream storm cluster between Lake Okeechobee and Fort Myers has slowly been progressing east. This activity will probably slowly decay through the rest of the evening as afternoon guidance indicates weakening low-level convergence along the mesoscale outflow boundary. Convergence will become more focused farther north across the northeast Gulf into north FL during the early morning. This should support isolated elevated thunderstorms spreading inland between 08-12Z. Strong deep-layer shear may yield mid-level updraft rotation. However, weak mid-level lapse rates coupled with near-surface stability suggests severe potential should be negligible through 12Z. ..Grams.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...FL... The pair of supercells which produced a pair of reported tornadoes along the Atlantic Coast east of Lake Okeechobee earlier has become confined offshore. An upstream storm cluster between Lake Okeechobee and Fort Myers has slowly been progressing east. This activity will probably slowly decay through the rest of the evening as afternoon guidance indicates weakening low-level convergence along the mesoscale outflow boundary. Convergence will become more focused farther north across the northeast Gulf into north FL during the early morning. This should support isolated elevated thunderstorms spreading inland between 08-12Z. Strong deep-layer shear may yield mid-level updraft rotation. However, weak mid-level lapse rates coupled with near-surface stability suggests severe potential should be negligible through 12Z. ..Grams.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...FL... The pair of supercells which produced a pair of reported tornadoes along the Atlantic Coast east of Lake Okeechobee earlier has become confined offshore. An upstream storm cluster between Lake Okeechobee and Fort Myers has slowly been progressing east. This activity will probably slowly decay through the rest of the evening as afternoon guidance indicates weakening low-level convergence along the mesoscale outflow boundary. Convergence will become more focused farther north across the northeast Gulf into north FL during the early morning. This should support isolated elevated thunderstorms spreading inland between 08-12Z. Strong deep-layer shear may yield mid-level updraft rotation. However, weak mid-level lapse rates coupled with near-surface stability suggests severe potential should be negligible through 12Z. ..Grams.. 01/16/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 15 22:59:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152256Z - 160000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized threat for a brief tornado is expected to continue in the short-term. Any threat should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a supercell ongoing in Martin County, Florida. WSR-88D VWPs along the Florida east coast suggest veering winds with height in the lowest 2 km above ground level, with some speed shear in the low to mid-levels. Low-level shear may also be strengthened by frictional effects associated with the coastal vicinity. In addition, the storm is located near a boundary helping to increase low-level convergence. The cell will continue to approach the coast over the next half hour. Additional cells may develop, and could be associated with an isolated/brief tornado threat due to the localized enhancement of low-level shear. However, any threat is expected to remain marginal, and not sufficient for tornado watch issuance. ..Broyles/Goss.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB... LAT...LON 27078008 26998037 26988054 27058069 27188073 27318069 27408059 27458036 27478017 27378005 27168003 27078008 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 15 22:33:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A progressive upper pattern is expected through the week into early next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to traverse the CONUS up to the weekend. The progressing mid-level troughs will reinforce surface high pressure and an accompanying arctic airmass, limiting wildfire-spread potential over most locales. Guidance consistency continues to show surface low development over the southern High Plains on Wednesday in advance of one of the upper troughs. Here, downslope flow will encourage some dry/breezy conditions, but the lack of fuel receptiveness suggests that Critical probabilities are not currently warranted. By the weekend, upper-ridging will overspread the central CONUS before another mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. While surface temperatures might rise above the freezing mark across the southern Plains by early next week, low-level moisture will also increase, keeping wildfire-spread concerns at a minimum. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0068 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...Louisiana into Mississippi and northern Alabama Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 151717Z - 152115Z SUMMARY...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected to spread east from southeast Arkansas and northern Louisiana into Mississippi and northern Alabama through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Surface observations, LSRs, and MPING reports over the past 1-2 hours continue to show a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from the ArkLaTex region into northern MS/AL within a broad precipitation swath. Isentropic ascent over a 925-850 mb frontal zone is forecast to persist through early afternoon as a low-amplitude wave, currently over the southern Plains, migrates east. Recent sleet LSRs and forecast soundings suggest that a mix of snow and sleet will be more likely where surface temperatures are in the low 20s or lower. Areas where temperatures are in the mid-20s or higher should have too shallow/warm of a sub-freezing layer to support much re-freezing of hydrometeors, making a sleet/freezing rain mix more probable. Forecast guidance suggests that precipitation intensity may gradually wane heading into the mid-afternoon hours, but a zone of impactful wintry precipitation appears probable prior to this occurring. ..Moore.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32389370 32969267 34238987 34948780 34978610 34718575 34368570 33158810 32298989 31939125 31739213 31609304 31669354 31849381 32109389 32389370 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more