Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No appreciable changes have been made to the prior forecast. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Central FL this afternoon... Cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the CONUS from the Rockies eastward, with ridging over the Pacific coast. One embedded speed maxima will progress east-northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic, in advance of an upstream wave moving from the central High Plains/Rockies to the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The majority of the CONUS will be relatively cold/dry, with the only buoyant warm sector confined to the FL peninsula (and just off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight). The ongoing convection between Fort Meyers and Sarasota could persist through the afternoon while spreading east-northeastward along the warm front. There will be sufficient vertical shear/hodograph length for a weakly rotating storm within the cluster, but poor midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level flow/shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely. Read more

MD 0069 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas affected...parts of middle and eastern Tennessee Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 151750Z - 152045Z SUMMARY...An area of heavier snow rates, occasionally approaching 1 inch per hour, may be maintained east-northeastward across portions of middle and eastern Tennessee through 2-4 PM CST, before gradually diminishing through early evening. DISCUSSION...A mid-level speed maximum propagating across northern Mississippi is forecast to reach the Cumberland Plateau by early evening. This still appears associated with an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent, which might be maintained through the 20-22Z time frame while overspreading portions of middle through eastern Tennessee. Thereafter, frontogenetic forcing is forecast to generally weaken across the Tennessee Valley through southern Appalachians vicinity, yielding diminishing precipitation rates. Until then, it appears that the area of enhanced lift will include upward vertical motion maximized within the favorably cold mid-level layer (centered around or above 600 mb) for large dendritic ice crystal growth. It appears this may remain strong enough to support continuing potential for occasional heavy snow rates up to around 1 inch per hour, where lower/mid tropospheric profiles are maintained at or below freezing (roughly north of the 0 C isotherm at 859 mb). ..Kerr.. 01/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 34978743 35118584 35718402 36408364 36298463 36048579 35848708 34978743 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Similar to D1/Monday, cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central/eastern CONUS and Canada on Tuesday. Thunderstorm potential will remain limited to locations along/south of a front forecast to be in place over the FL Peninsula, where greater low-level moisture will reside. As the upper trough progresses eastward through the day, a weak surface reflection should develop from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the coastal western Atlantic. The cold front should also move southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the period. Strong (50-60 kt) mid-level west-southwesterly flow associated with the upper cyclone will be present over much of FL. Similar values of deep-layer shear would typically support organized severe thunderstorm potential. However, in this case forecast thermodynamic profiles across central/south FL will likely hinder updraft intensity, as poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft limit the degree of instability that can develop. In addition, enhanced low/mid-level flow will be largely parallel to the surface front, limiting low-level convergence/ascent. While there may be some potential for strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops and can remain south of the front, the undercutting nature of the boundary suggests that overall severe potential will probably remain too low/sparse for highlights. ..Gleason.. 01/15/2024 Read more