Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the West on Wednesday, with an intense shortwave moving from northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Behind this lead wave, low heights with cold temperatures aloft will remain over the West Coast as a backside wave pushes south along the coast. Preceding the Plains wave, low pressure will develop over the central and northern Plains, with increasing southerly winds at the surface. However, given the prominent surface ridge over the East, poor moisture return is forecast. Indeed, little to no instability is forecast to develop over the central High Plains in the synoptically favored area, though weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out. Overall, the threat of thunderstorms across the warm sector is very low. A greater chance of scattered thunderstorms will occur beneath the cold air aloft and mainly confined to the Four Corners states, and perhaps near the Coastal Range in southern CA. Favored areas for diurnal development will be along the Mogollon Rim and perhaps over the higher terrain of northern NM. While sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over parts of the central Plains, chances appear less than 10% at this time. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the West on Wednesday, with an intense shortwave moving from northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Behind this lead wave, low heights with cold temperatures aloft will remain over the West Coast as a backside wave pushes south along the coast. Preceding the Plains wave, low pressure will develop over the central and northern Plains, with increasing southerly winds at the surface. However, given the prominent surface ridge over the East, poor moisture return is forecast. Indeed, little to no instability is forecast to develop over the central High Plains in the synoptically favored area, though weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out. Overall, the threat of thunderstorms across the warm sector is very low. A greater chance of scattered thunderstorms will occur beneath the cold air aloft and mainly confined to the Four Corners states, and perhaps near the Coastal Range in southern CA. Favored areas for diurnal development will be along the Mogollon Rim and perhaps over the higher terrain of northern NM. While sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over parts of the central Plains, chances appear less than 10% at this time. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the West on Wednesday, with an intense shortwave moving from northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Behind this lead wave, low heights with cold temperatures aloft will remain over the West Coast as a backside wave pushes south along the coast. Preceding the Plains wave, low pressure will develop over the central and northern Plains, with increasing southerly winds at the surface. However, given the prominent surface ridge over the East, poor moisture return is forecast. Indeed, little to no instability is forecast to develop over the central High Plains in the synoptically favored area, though weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out. Overall, the threat of thunderstorms across the warm sector is very low. A greater chance of scattered thunderstorms will occur beneath the cold air aloft and mainly confined to the Four Corners states, and perhaps near the Coastal Range in southern CA. Favored areas for diurnal development will be along the Mogollon Rim and perhaps over the higher terrain of northern NM. While sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over parts of the central Plains, chances appear less than 10% at this time. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic is forecast to remain strong and amplified, but perhaps continue to become a bit more progressive through this period. Within this regime, models suggest that a significant surface cyclone, now developing northeast of the Bahamas, may deepen further, before occluding, with secondary surface cyclogenesis proceeding east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. Upstream, mid-level ridging likely will shift from the lee of the Rockies across and east of the Mississippi Valley today through tonight, as trailing large-scale mid-level troughing accelerates northeastward, inland of coastal southern California and Baja California through much of the Southwest and northwestern Mexico by early Wednesday. As a surface low associated with the latter feature migrates northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada into the northern intermountain region, a trailing cold front will advance across the Great Basin and Southwest into the southern Rockies, preceded by gradually deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies. While this probably will be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow across southern portions of the high plains into the middle Missouri Valley, the low-level environment across much of the western Gulf Basin into Rio Grande Valley is initially dry, with little appreciable modification forecast through this period. ...Southwest... An ongoing influx of low/mid-level moisture off the Pacific, coupled with cooling aloft, may contribute to layers of weak destabilization across much California, and across the Great Basin into the Rockies today through tonight. However, latest model output continues to suggest that the evolution of thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning may remain confined to the post-cold frontal regime, beneath the inland spreading mid-level cold core. Generally, it appears that appreciable probabilities for thunderstorm activity may begin to develop near southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas around midday, on the leading edge of stronger cooling (roughly -22 to -24 C at 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection. As this spreads inland, additional thunderstorm development appears probable across the lower Colorado Valley by late afternoon, and the Mogollon Rim vicinity/lower deserts of central Arizona by late evening. While forecast soundings, particularly across portions of Arizona, suggest that vertical shear profiles might become conditionally supportive of supercell structures, thermodynamic profiles do not appear conducive to an appreciable risk for severe weather. However, small hail and gusty winds could accompany a few of the stronger storms. ...Florida... Beneath a relatively cold mid-level environment, the risk for thunderstorm activity today into tonight appears likely to remain confined to areas offshore of the Atlantic coast, associated with boundary-layer destabilization focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic is forecast to remain strong and amplified, but perhaps continue to become a bit more progressive through this period. Within this regime, models suggest that a significant surface cyclone, now developing northeast of the Bahamas, may deepen further, before occluding, with secondary surface cyclogenesis proceeding east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. Upstream, mid-level ridging likely will shift from the lee of the Rockies across and east of the Mississippi Valley today through tonight, as trailing large-scale mid-level troughing accelerates northeastward, inland of coastal southern California and Baja California through much of the Southwest and northwestern Mexico by early Wednesday. As a surface low associated with the latter feature migrates northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada into the northern intermountain region, a trailing cold front will advance across the Great Basin and Southwest into the southern Rockies, preceded by gradually deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies. While this probably will be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow across southern portions of the high plains into the middle Missouri Valley, the low-level environment across much of the western Gulf Basin into Rio Grande Valley is initially dry, with little appreciable modification forecast through this period. ...Southwest... An ongoing influx of low/mid-level moisture off the Pacific, coupled with cooling aloft, may contribute to layers of weak destabilization across much California, and across the Great Basin into the Rockies today through tonight. However, latest model output continues to suggest that the evolution of thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning may remain confined to the post-cold frontal regime, beneath the inland spreading mid-level cold core. Generally, it appears that appreciable probabilities for thunderstorm activity may begin to develop near southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas around midday, on the leading edge of stronger cooling (roughly -22 to -24 C at 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection. As this spreads inland, additional thunderstorm development appears probable across the lower Colorado Valley by late afternoon, and the Mogollon Rim vicinity/lower deserts of central Arizona by late evening. While forecast soundings, particularly across portions of Arizona, suggest that vertical shear profiles might become conditionally supportive of supercell structures, thermodynamic profiles do not appear conducive to an appreciable risk for severe weather. However, small hail and gusty winds could accompany a few of the stronger storms. ...Florida... Beneath a relatively cold mid-level environment, the risk for thunderstorm activity today into tonight appears likely to remain confined to areas offshore of the Atlantic coast, associated with boundary-layer destabilization focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic is forecast to remain strong and amplified, but perhaps continue to become a bit more progressive through this period. Within this regime, models suggest that a significant surface cyclone, now developing northeast of the Bahamas, may deepen further, before occluding, with secondary surface cyclogenesis proceeding east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. Upstream, mid-level ridging likely will shift from the lee of the Rockies across and east of the Mississippi Valley today through tonight, as trailing large-scale mid-level troughing accelerates northeastward, inland of coastal southern California and Baja California through much of the Southwest and northwestern Mexico by early Wednesday. As a surface low associated with the latter feature migrates northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada into the northern intermountain region, a trailing cold front will advance across the Great Basin and Southwest into the southern Rockies, preceded by gradually deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies. While this probably will be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow across southern portions of the high plains into the middle Missouri Valley, the low-level environment across much of the western Gulf Basin into Rio Grande Valley is initially dry, with little appreciable modification forecast through this period. ...Southwest... An ongoing influx of low/mid-level moisture off the Pacific, coupled with cooling aloft, may contribute to layers of weak destabilization across much California, and across the Great Basin into the Rockies today through tonight. However, latest model output continues to suggest that the evolution of thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning may remain confined to the post-cold frontal regime, beneath the inland spreading mid-level cold core. Generally, it appears that appreciable probabilities for thunderstorm activity may begin to develop near southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas around midday, on the leading edge of stronger cooling (roughly -22 to -24 C at 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection. As this spreads inland, additional thunderstorm development appears probable across the lower Colorado Valley by late afternoon, and the Mogollon Rim vicinity/lower deserts of central Arizona by late evening. While forecast soundings, particularly across portions of Arizona, suggest that vertical shear profiles might become conditionally supportive of supercell structures, thermodynamic profiles do not appear conducive to an appreciable risk for severe weather. However, small hail and gusty winds could accompany a few of the stronger storms. ...Florida... Beneath a relatively cold mid-level environment, the risk for thunderstorm activity today into tonight appears likely to remain confined to areas offshore of the Atlantic coast, associated with boundary-layer destabilization focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic is forecast to remain strong and amplified, but perhaps continue to become a bit more progressive through this period. Within this regime, models suggest that a significant surface cyclone, now developing northeast of the Bahamas, may deepen further, before occluding, with secondary surface cyclogenesis proceeding east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. Upstream, mid-level ridging likely will shift from the lee of the Rockies across and east of the Mississippi Valley today through tonight, as trailing large-scale mid-level troughing accelerates northeastward, inland of coastal southern California and Baja California through much of the Southwest and northwestern Mexico by early Wednesday. As a surface low associated with the latter feature migrates northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada into the northern intermountain region, a trailing cold front will advance across the Great Basin and Southwest into the southern Rockies, preceded by gradually deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies. While this probably will be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow across southern portions of the high plains into the middle Missouri Valley, the low-level environment across much of the western Gulf Basin into Rio Grande Valley is initially dry, with little appreciable modification forecast through this period. ...Southwest... An ongoing influx of low/mid-level moisture off the Pacific, coupled with cooling aloft, may contribute to layers of weak destabilization across much California, and across the Great Basin into the Rockies today through tonight. However, latest model output continues to suggest that the evolution of thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning may remain confined to the post-cold frontal regime, beneath the inland spreading mid-level cold core. Generally, it appears that appreciable probabilities for thunderstorm activity may begin to develop near southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas around midday, on the leading edge of stronger cooling (roughly -22 to -24 C at 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection. As this spreads inland, additional thunderstorm development appears probable across the lower Colorado Valley by late afternoon, and the Mogollon Rim vicinity/lower deserts of central Arizona by late evening. While forecast soundings, particularly across portions of Arizona, suggest that vertical shear profiles might become conditionally supportive of supercell structures, thermodynamic profiles do not appear conducive to an appreciable risk for severe weather. However, small hail and gusty winds could accompany a few of the stronger storms. ...Florida... Beneath a relatively cold mid-level environment, the risk for thunderstorm activity today into tonight appears likely to remain confined to areas offshore of the Atlantic coast, associated with boundary-layer destabilization focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific into western Atlantic is forecast to remain strong and amplified, but perhaps continue to become a bit more progressive through this period. Within this regime, models suggest that a significant surface cyclone, now developing northeast of the Bahamas, may deepen further, before occluding, with secondary surface cyclogenesis proceeding east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. Upstream, mid-level ridging likely will shift from the lee of the Rockies across and east of the Mississippi Valley today through tonight, as trailing large-scale mid-level troughing accelerates northeastward, inland of coastal southern California and Baja California through much of the Southwest and northwestern Mexico by early Wednesday. As a surface low associated with the latter feature migrates northeast of the southern Sierra Nevada into the northern intermountain region, a trailing cold front will advance across the Great Basin and Southwest into the southern Rockies, preceded by gradually deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies. While this probably will be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow across southern portions of the high plains into the middle Missouri Valley, the low-level environment across much of the western Gulf Basin into Rio Grande Valley is initially dry, with little appreciable modification forecast through this period. ...Southwest... An ongoing influx of low/mid-level moisture off the Pacific, coupled with cooling aloft, may contribute to layers of weak destabilization across much California, and across the Great Basin into the Rockies today through tonight. However, latest model output continues to suggest that the evolution of thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning may remain confined to the post-cold frontal regime, beneath the inland spreading mid-level cold core. Generally, it appears that appreciable probabilities for thunderstorm activity may begin to develop near southern California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas around midday, on the leading edge of stronger cooling (roughly -22 to -24 C at 500 mb) associated with mid-level forcing for ascent and cold advection. As this spreads inland, additional thunderstorm development appears probable across the lower Colorado Valley by late afternoon, and the Mogollon Rim vicinity/lower deserts of central Arizona by late evening. While forecast soundings, particularly across portions of Arizona, suggest that vertical shear profiles might become conditionally supportive of supercell structures, thermodynamic profiles do not appear conducive to an appreciable risk for severe weather. However, small hail and gusty winds could accompany a few of the stronger storms. ...Florida... Beneath a relatively cold mid-level environment, the risk for thunderstorm activity today into tonight appears likely to remain confined to areas offshore of the Atlantic coast, associated with boundary-layer destabilization focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Weak thunderstorm activity may persist another hour or two inland of coastal areas, near and east/southeast of Tampa. This appears focused beneath the mid-level cold core near a lingering mid/upper low center, within larger-scale mid-level troughing still digging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity. Models continue to suggest that this troughing will begin to redevelop east of the Florida peninsula overnight, as more notable surface cyclogenesis commences north-northeast of the northern Bahamas. This will be accompanied by further low-level cooling and drying across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Keys and southern peninsula. However, it does appear that scattered thunderstorm development may persist and perhaps increase a bit overnight offshore of Atlantic coastal areas, as the boundary-layer, particularly near the Gulf Stream, moistens and destabilizes beneath the cold air aloft. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin into California... Based on satellite and radar imagery, large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to increasing/deepening convective development, beneath the mid-level thermal trough, where insolation has contributed to weak destabilization. Some of this activity may continue to become capable of producing lightning, at least into early evening, before this potential begins to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Weak thunderstorm activity may persist another hour or two inland of coastal areas, near and east/southeast of Tampa. This appears focused beneath the mid-level cold core near a lingering mid/upper low center, within larger-scale mid-level troughing still digging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity. Models continue to suggest that this troughing will begin to redevelop east of the Florida peninsula overnight, as more notable surface cyclogenesis commences north-northeast of the northern Bahamas. This will be accompanied by further low-level cooling and drying across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Keys and southern peninsula. However, it does appear that scattered thunderstorm development may persist and perhaps increase a bit overnight offshore of Atlantic coastal areas, as the boundary-layer, particularly near the Gulf Stream, moistens and destabilizes beneath the cold air aloft. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin into California... Based on satellite and radar imagery, large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to increasing/deepening convective development, beneath the mid-level thermal trough, where insolation has contributed to weak destabilization. Some of this activity may continue to become capable of producing lightning, at least into early evening, before this potential begins to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Weak thunderstorm activity may persist another hour or two inland of coastal areas, near and east/southeast of Tampa. This appears focused beneath the mid-level cold core near a lingering mid/upper low center, within larger-scale mid-level troughing still digging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity. Models continue to suggest that this troughing will begin to redevelop east of the Florida peninsula overnight, as more notable surface cyclogenesis commences north-northeast of the northern Bahamas. This will be accompanied by further low-level cooling and drying across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Keys and southern peninsula. However, it does appear that scattered thunderstorm development may persist and perhaps increase a bit overnight offshore of Atlantic coastal areas, as the boundary-layer, particularly near the Gulf Stream, moistens and destabilizes beneath the cold air aloft. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin into California... Based on satellite and radar imagery, large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to increasing/deepening convective development, beneath the mid-level thermal trough, where insolation has contributed to weak destabilization. Some of this activity may continue to become capable of producing lightning, at least into early evening, before this potential begins to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Weak thunderstorm activity may persist another hour or two inland of coastal areas, near and east/southeast of Tampa. This appears focused beneath the mid-level cold core near a lingering mid/upper low center, within larger-scale mid-level troughing still digging across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity. Models continue to suggest that this troughing will begin to redevelop east of the Florida peninsula overnight, as more notable surface cyclogenesis commences north-northeast of the northern Bahamas. This will be accompanied by further low-level cooling and drying across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Keys and southern peninsula. However, it does appear that scattered thunderstorm development may persist and perhaps increase a bit overnight offshore of Atlantic coastal areas, as the boundary-layer, particularly near the Gulf Stream, moistens and destabilizes beneath the cold air aloft. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin into California... Based on satellite and radar imagery, large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be contributing to increasing/deepening convective development, beneath the mid-level thermal trough, where insolation has contributed to weak destabilization. Some of this activity may continue to become capable of producing lightning, at least into early evening, before this potential begins to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 5 21:59:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 5 21:59:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A deep western US trough will gradually move eastward over the central US through mid to late week this week. Strong mid-level flow will also persist over the southern and central US. Accompanying the passing trough, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected to limit fire-weather potential. An exception to this may be across parts of southwest TX where more limited precipitation is expected. Later this week into next weekend, a second potent trough may develop over the Southwest and again may bring precipitation and cooler temperatures to much of the country. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Despite the wetter pattern supporting widespread precipitation, somewhat drier conditions may persist over parts of far southwest TX and southern NM from midweek this week through the end of the forecast period. The strong upper-level flow lingering over a relative minima in precipitation may allow for periodic dry and breezy conditions to develop D3/Wed through D6/Sat behind a strong lee cyclone. While fuels are not overly dry, at least a low-end risk for critical fire-weather conditions is possible. However, forecast details and model differences remain too large to justify critical probabilities. Otherwise, the risk for critical fire-weather conditions over the CONUS is low owing to the seasonably cool and wet pattern. ..Lyons.. 02/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous outlook below for more information. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024/ ...Discussion... A positively tilted upper trough -- extending from near the Pacific Northwest Coast southwestward across the eastern Pacific -- will make gradual eastward progress today. Upstream, ridging will prevail over the central CONUS. Still further upstream, two upper lows will continue to affect the eastern U.S. through the period. The first -- lingering over the northwestern Atlantic southeast of the Canadian Maritimes -- will result in persistence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft across New England. The second low of interest is one that has drifted south into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to take a southeastward and then eastward turn with time, shifting into Florida late today, and then across the Peninsula tonight. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Gulf is forecast to redevelop off eastern coast of Florida near the Bahamas by this evening. Currently, vigorous convection that was affecting the Keys and southern portions of the Peninsula has shifted east, with northerly low-level winds now over southern Florida in the wake of this convection and the associated outflow boundary. While weak instability lingers off the western Florida coast at this time, dewpoints are now in the 50s inland, and thus an accordingly stable airmass is indicated. As such, potential for any stronger convection inland has diminished substantially, and will gradually end entirely as the surface low redevelops off the eastern coast. As such, the MRGL risk is being removed at this time, with severe storms not expected across Florida, or the rest of the U.S., for the remainder of the period. Read more