SPC Feb 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through early evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, far southern Wisconsin, and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley/Lake Michigan vicinity... Steady height falls will occur preceding the eastward advancement of an upper trough currently across the northern/central Great Plains, with this trough reaching the Upper Great Lakes/northern Ontario tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds (80+ kt 500 mb) will overspread much of the Midwest/Lake Michigan vicinity. A surface low will progress northeastward across northern Minnesota toward northern Ontario, as a cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Some pre-frontal moistening is expected today, but overall limited moisture quality should preclude a greater and more certain severe risk. Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop, at least on an isolated basis, by mid/late afternoon initially across eastern Iowa and Wisconsin/northwest Illinois near the front, within a zone of modest destabilization (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE) but minimal inhibition. While low-level moisture will be rather limited, with surface dewpoints should generally no higher than 50 F around peak heating, the steepness of lapse rates (-25C around 500mb) could support some severe-caliber surface-based low-topped storms (tops generally 25,000 ft or below), with strong wind profiles/low-level hodograph curvature supportive of rotating storms. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible, along with some tornado risk. Storms should persist, and potentially remain strong/locally severe, northeastward toward the southern Lake Michigan vicinity through early/mid-evening, before nocturnal boundary layer/cool lake influences lead to a diminishing convective intensity by late evening. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z Monday/D5. A more favorable warm sector will be in place by this time, with widespread mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a developing cold front. This should contribute to around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from southeast TX across southern LA, with lesser values farther east. Given the trajectory of the low and position of the most favorable air mass, the greatest chance of severe storms looks to be from eastern TX across southern LA, beginning early over TX and pushing toward MS by 12Z Monday/D5. Wind fields will favor both damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming dewpoints trending higher/mid to upper 60s F. However, there is some concern about warm sector quality given the possibility of precipitation prior to the low/cold front arrival. Beyond this range, predictability decreases due to both the widespread nature of antecedent rain forecast across the broadening warm sector and warm advection zone, and resulting minimal instability. Severe potential may still exist on Monday/D5, and will be addressed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z Monday/D5. A more favorable warm sector will be in place by this time, with widespread mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a developing cold front. This should contribute to around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from southeast TX across southern LA, with lesser values farther east. Given the trajectory of the low and position of the most favorable air mass, the greatest chance of severe storms looks to be from eastern TX across southern LA, beginning early over TX and pushing toward MS by 12Z Monday/D5. Wind fields will favor both damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming dewpoints trending higher/mid to upper 60s F. However, there is some concern about warm sector quality given the possibility of precipitation prior to the low/cold front arrival. Beyond this range, predictability decreases due to both the widespread nature of antecedent rain forecast across the broadening warm sector and warm advection zone, and resulting minimal instability. Severe potential may still exist on Monday/D5, and will be addressed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z Monday/D5. A more favorable warm sector will be in place by this time, with widespread mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a developing cold front. This should contribute to around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from southeast TX across southern LA, with lesser values farther east. Given the trajectory of the low and position of the most favorable air mass, the greatest chance of severe storms looks to be from eastern TX across southern LA, beginning early over TX and pushing toward MS by 12Z Monday/D5. Wind fields will favor both damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming dewpoints trending higher/mid to upper 60s F. However, there is some concern about warm sector quality given the possibility of precipitation prior to the low/cold front arrival. Beyond this range, predictability decreases due to both the widespread nature of antecedent rain forecast across the broadening warm sector and warm advection zone, and resulting minimal instability. Severe potential may still exist on Monday/D5, and will be addressed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z Monday/D5. A more favorable warm sector will be in place by this time, with widespread mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a developing cold front. This should contribute to around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from southeast TX across southern LA, with lesser values farther east. Given the trajectory of the low and position of the most favorable air mass, the greatest chance of severe storms looks to be from eastern TX across southern LA, beginning early over TX and pushing toward MS by 12Z Monday/D5. Wind fields will favor both damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming dewpoints trending higher/mid to upper 60s F. However, there is some concern about warm sector quality given the possibility of precipitation prior to the low/cold front arrival. Beyond this range, predictability decreases due to both the widespread nature of antecedent rain forecast across the broadening warm sector and warm advection zone, and resulting minimal instability. Severe potential may still exist on Monday/D5, and will be addressed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z Monday/D5. A more favorable warm sector will be in place by this time, with widespread mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a developing cold front. This should contribute to around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from southeast TX across southern LA, with lesser values farther east. Given the trajectory of the low and position of the most favorable air mass, the greatest chance of severe storms looks to be from eastern TX across southern LA, beginning early over TX and pushing toward MS by 12Z Monday/D5. Wind fields will favor both damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming dewpoints trending higher/mid to upper 60s F. However, there is some concern about warm sector quality given the possibility of precipitation prior to the low/cold front arrival. Beyond this range, predictability decreases due to both the widespread nature of antecedent rain forecast across the broadening warm sector and warm advection zone, and resulting minimal instability. Severe potential may still exist on Monday/D5, and will be addressed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good enough agreement for Sunday/D4, depicting a progressive shortwave trough moving from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This system will maintain a positive-tilt overall, but is forecast to deepen. Gradual height falls will overspread the Gulf Coast region on Sunday/D4, as low pressure moves from eastern TX across LA and MS, turning northward into TN by 12Z Monday/D5. A more favorable warm sector will be in place by this time, with widespread mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a developing cold front. This should contribute to around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE from southeast TX across southern LA, with lesser values farther east. Given the trajectory of the low and position of the most favorable air mass, the greatest chance of severe storms looks to be from eastern TX across southern LA, beginning early over TX and pushing toward MS by 12Z Monday/D5. Wind fields will favor both damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes assuming dewpoints trending higher/mid to upper 60s F. However, there is some concern about warm sector quality given the possibility of precipitation prior to the low/cold front arrival. Beyond this range, predictability decreases due to both the widespread nature of antecedent rain forecast across the broadening warm sector and warm advection zone, and resulting minimal instability. Severe potential may still exist on Monday/D5, and will be addressed in later outlooks as predictability increases. Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are most likely on Saturday from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Weak shortwave ridging will occur over the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday as a leading wave moves into the Northeast, with a broad belt of southwesterlies aloft extending into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Rockies, with the primary vorticity maximum moving across NM and into western TX and OK through Sunday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will extend from the OH Valley into TX Saturday morning, drifting slowly southward with the air of rain-cooled air from ongoing activity focused from central TX into northern MS/AL. This activity is not expected to be severe, given modest moisture levels with lower 60 F dewpoints and front-parallel winds aloft. Pockets of heating ahead of this daytime activity could result in locally stronger storms. To the west, a surface trough will develop over western TX late, with a cold front pushing east toward I-35 into Sunday morning as the upper jet noses toward the Red River. At that time, the more robust low-level moisture is forecast to be well south of the area of strongest ascent along the TX Coast. However, focused ascent along the cold front and near the low could provide a focus for storms beginning around 06Z over northwest TX. Forecast soundings around that time depict a mostly stable boundary layer, with elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg and lengthy hodographs. Given the overnight timing and late moisture return, severe is not currently forecast though small hail would appear to be the primary concern given such cold midlevel temperatures. ..Jewell.. 02/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough embedded in broader cyclonic flow will overspread the central CONUS, with a surface low expected to progress across the southern Plains tomorrow/Friday. Dry westerly downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with Elevated surface conditions likely by afternoon peak heating. Similar to Day 1 though, fire weather highlights have been withheld given poorly receptive fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 6 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Severe Storms
Storm Prediction Center
Subscribe to Severe Storms feed