Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active mid-level flow pattern is expected over much of the central and eastern US through the extended forecast period. The first system, departing to the east later this week, will support broad chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures over much of the country. A second trough is forecast to develop this weekend and into early next week supporting another round of cool and wet conditions over central and eastern parts of the US. Given the expected wet and cool pattern, fire-weather chances appear low through the next 7 days. ...Southwest/South TX... Despite the active pattern, parts of southern and southwest TX may remain more sheltered from the cooler and wetter conditions elsewhere. Strong flow aloft from the passing troughs will remain overhead, supporting periodic breezy winds of 10-15 mph. Locally stronger winds may develop coincident with a deepening area of low pressure over eastern MEX and the Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week. While not overly dry, some potential for low-end fire-weather conditions may develop as a cold front and drier air mass move in from farther north. However, confidence in forecast evolution is low, and fuels are only marginally dry. This suggests that critical fire-weather potential remains too low for any probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active mid-level flow pattern is expected over much of the central and eastern US through the extended forecast period. The first system, departing to the east later this week, will support broad chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures over much of the country. A second trough is forecast to develop this weekend and into early next week supporting another round of cool and wet conditions over central and eastern parts of the US. Given the expected wet and cool pattern, fire-weather chances appear low through the next 7 days. ...Southwest/South TX... Despite the active pattern, parts of southern and southwest TX may remain more sheltered from the cooler and wetter conditions elsewhere. Strong flow aloft from the passing troughs will remain overhead, supporting periodic breezy winds of 10-15 mph. Locally stronger winds may develop coincident with a deepening area of low pressure over eastern MEX and the Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week. While not overly dry, some potential for low-end fire-weather conditions may develop as a cold front and drier air mass move in from farther north. However, confidence in forecast evolution is low, and fuels are only marginally dry. This suggests that critical fire-weather potential remains too low for any probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active mid-level flow pattern is expected over much of the central and eastern US through the extended forecast period. The first system, departing to the east later this week, will support broad chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures over much of the country. A second trough is forecast to develop this weekend and into early next week supporting another round of cool and wet conditions over central and eastern parts of the US. Given the expected wet and cool pattern, fire-weather chances appear low through the next 7 days. ...Southwest/South TX... Despite the active pattern, parts of southern and southwest TX may remain more sheltered from the cooler and wetter conditions elsewhere. Strong flow aloft from the passing troughs will remain overhead, supporting periodic breezy winds of 10-15 mph. Locally stronger winds may develop coincident with a deepening area of low pressure over eastern MEX and the Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week. While not overly dry, some potential for low-end fire-weather conditions may develop as a cold front and drier air mass move in from farther north. However, confidence in forecast evolution is low, and fuels are only marginally dry. This suggests that critical fire-weather potential remains too low for any probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An active mid-level flow pattern is expected over much of the central and eastern US through the extended forecast period. The first system, departing to the east later this week, will support broad chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures over much of the country. A second trough is forecast to develop this weekend and into early next week supporting another round of cool and wet conditions over central and eastern parts of the US. Given the expected wet and cool pattern, fire-weather chances appear low through the next 7 days. ...Southwest/South TX... Despite the active pattern, parts of southern and southwest TX may remain more sheltered from the cooler and wetter conditions elsewhere. Strong flow aloft from the passing troughs will remain overhead, supporting periodic breezy winds of 10-15 mph. Locally stronger winds may develop coincident with a deepening area of low pressure over eastern MEX and the Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week. While not overly dry, some potential for low-end fire-weather conditions may develop as a cold front and drier air mass move in from farther north. However, confidence in forecast evolution is low, and fuels are only marginally dry. This suggests that critical fire-weather potential remains too low for any probabilities. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. Weakly rotating showers are ongoing near San Diego CA, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present per latest VWP from KNKX. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak MUCAPE should continue to limit updraft strength and intensity this afternoon. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from parts of CA into the Lower CO River Valley and AZ through tonight as an upper trough continues eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. Weakly rotating showers are ongoing near San Diego CA, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present per latest VWP from KNKX. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak MUCAPE should continue to limit updraft strength and intensity this afternoon. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from parts of CA into the Lower CO River Valley and AZ through tonight as an upper trough continues eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. Weakly rotating showers are ongoing near San Diego CA, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present per latest VWP from KNKX. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak MUCAPE should continue to limit updraft strength and intensity this afternoon. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from parts of CA into the Lower CO River Valley and AZ through tonight as an upper trough continues eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. Weakly rotating showers are ongoing near San Diego CA, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present per latest VWP from KNKX. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak MUCAPE should continue to limit updraft strength and intensity this afternoon. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from parts of CA into the Lower CO River Valley and AZ through tonight as an upper trough continues eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. Weakly rotating showers are ongoing near San Diego CA, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present per latest VWP from KNKX. Poor lapse rates aloft and weak MUCAPE should continue to limit updraft strength and intensity this afternoon. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from parts of CA into the Lower CO River Valley and AZ through tonight as an upper trough continues eastward. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Discussion... Progressive upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today, as a trough continues to exit eastern NOAM into the western Atlantic. Upstream, a second trough near the West Coast this morning will gradually shift eastward toward the Great Basin/Desert Southwest, in tandem with downstream eastward advance of stout ridging over the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a Pacific cold front will shift eastward across the Southwest through the period, ahead of the advancing upper system. Later this afternoon, daytime heating beneath mid-level cooling/steepening lapse rates will promote weak/low-topped destabilization in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley. Scattered to isolated convective development thus remains apparent. While the kinematic environment -- well within the parameter space supportive of organized convection and thus severe potential -- is noted, the weak/low-topped nature of the anticipated CAPE across this region should limit updraft intensity, and any associated hail/wind risk. As such, have again opted against introduction of a risk area. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, the threat for critical fire-weather concerns is low. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible over West TX. However, poorly receptive fuels and increasing clouds/moisture should keep broader potential limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, the threat for critical fire-weather concerns is low. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible over West TX. However, poorly receptive fuels and increasing clouds/moisture should keep broader potential limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, the threat for critical fire-weather concerns is low. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible over West TX. However, poorly receptive fuels and increasing clouds/moisture should keep broader potential limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, the threat for critical fire-weather concerns is low. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible over West TX. However, poorly receptive fuels and increasing clouds/moisture should keep broader potential limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes, the threat for critical fire-weather concerns is low. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible over West TX. However, poorly receptive fuels and increasing clouds/moisture should keep broader potential limited. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 02/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to eject from the Southwest across the southern/central Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. Even with low-level moisture expected to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough may support sufficient elevated instability for some convection. This thunderstorm potential should remain focused across parts of southern CA early in the day, and over portions of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies through Wednesday night. Orographic lift should aid in convective development across these regions, but weak instability is expected to preclude an organized severe threat. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains through Wednesday evening as the upper trough ejects eastward. Due to prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return will likely remain quite meager with northward and westward extent across the Plains. While thunderstorm potential remains uncertain, some guidance shows the potential for weak instability to develop by late Wednesday afternoon along/east of a surface lee/cold front trough over the southern/central High Plains. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer could support occasional strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops across eastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles, and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through Wednesday evening, even if it produces little lightning. Even so, the potential for severe-caliber winds still appears low given the limited forecast instability. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to eject from the Southwest across the southern/central Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. Even with low-level moisture expected to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough may support sufficient elevated instability for some convection. This thunderstorm potential should remain focused across parts of southern CA early in the day, and over portions of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies through Wednesday night. Orographic lift should aid in convective development across these regions, but weak instability is expected to preclude an organized severe threat. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains through Wednesday evening as the upper trough ejects eastward. Due to prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return will likely remain quite meager with northward and westward extent across the Plains. While thunderstorm potential remains uncertain, some guidance shows the potential for weak instability to develop by late Wednesday afternoon along/east of a surface lee/cold front trough over the southern/central High Plains. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer could support occasional strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops across eastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles, and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through Wednesday evening, even if it produces little lightning. Even so, the potential for severe-caliber winds still appears low given the limited forecast instability. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to eject from the Southwest across the southern/central Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. Even with low-level moisture expected to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough may support sufficient elevated instability for some convection. This thunderstorm potential should remain focused across parts of southern CA early in the day, and over portions of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies through Wednesday night. Orographic lift should aid in convective development across these regions, but weak instability is expected to preclude an organized severe threat. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains through Wednesday evening as the upper trough ejects eastward. Due to prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return will likely remain quite meager with northward and westward extent across the Plains. While thunderstorm potential remains uncertain, some guidance shows the potential for weak instability to develop by late Wednesday afternoon along/east of a surface lee/cold front trough over the southern/central High Plains. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer could support occasional strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops across eastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles, and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through Wednesday evening, even if it produces little lightning. Even so, the potential for severe-caliber winds still appears low given the limited forecast instability. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to eject from the Southwest across the southern/central Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. Even with low-level moisture expected to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough may support sufficient elevated instability for some convection. This thunderstorm potential should remain focused across parts of southern CA early in the day, and over portions of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies through Wednesday night. Orographic lift should aid in convective development across these regions, but weak instability is expected to preclude an organized severe threat. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains through Wednesday evening as the upper trough ejects eastward. Due to prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return will likely remain quite meager with northward and westward extent across the Plains. While thunderstorm potential remains uncertain, some guidance shows the potential for weak instability to develop by late Wednesday afternoon along/east of a surface lee/cold front trough over the southern/central High Plains. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer could support occasional strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops across eastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles, and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through Wednesday evening, even if it produces little lightning. Even so, the potential for severe-caliber winds still appears low given the limited forecast instability. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to eject from the Southwest across the southern/central Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. Even with low-level moisture expected to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough may support sufficient elevated instability for some convection. This thunderstorm potential should remain focused across parts of southern CA early in the day, and over portions of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies through Wednesday night. Orographic lift should aid in convective development across these regions, but weak instability is expected to preclude an organized severe threat. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains through Wednesday evening as the upper trough ejects eastward. Due to prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return will likely remain quite meager with northward and westward extent across the Plains. While thunderstorm potential remains uncertain, some guidance shows the potential for weak instability to develop by late Wednesday afternoon along/east of a surface lee/cold front trough over the southern/central High Plains. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer could support occasional strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops across eastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles, and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through Wednesday evening, even if it produces little lightning. Even so, the potential for severe-caliber winds still appears low given the limited forecast instability. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to eject from the Southwest across the southern/central Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday. Even with low-level moisture expected to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper trough may support sufficient elevated instability for some convection. This thunderstorm potential should remain focused across parts of southern CA early in the day, and over portions of the Southwest and southern/central Rockies through Wednesday night. Orographic lift should aid in convective development across these regions, but weak instability is expected to preclude an organized severe threat. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains through Wednesday evening as the upper trough ejects eastward. Due to prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico, low-level moisture return will likely remain quite meager with northward and westward extent across the Plains. While thunderstorm potential remains uncertain, some guidance shows the potential for weak instability to develop by late Wednesday afternoon along/east of a surface lee/cold front trough over the southern/central High Plains. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and a well-mixed boundary layer could support occasional strong/gusty winds with any convection that develops across eastern CO and the OK/TX Panhandles, and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through Wednesday evening, even if it produces little lightning. Even so, the potential for severe-caliber winds still appears low given the limited forecast instability. ..Gleason.. 02/06/2024 Read more