Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a large upper trough will affect much of the western and central CONUS, with a primary embedded shortwave trough developing from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. The parent upper low will deepen slightly through the period as it moves from the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar path to the upper low, being vertically stacked. A broad fetch of southwesterly low-level flow will spread northward ahead of the low, but low-level moisture will lag, as will destabilization. While cold air aloft and areas of daytime heating may lead to weak instability over the upper MS Valley, substantial midlevel drying will also occur. As such, the plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley is expected to remain inactive as ascent will be well north of that area. Elevated CAPE up to 250 J/kg may support scattered weak convection north of the midlevel jet, most likely from MN into WI during the afternoon. The weak instability levels should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a large upper trough will affect much of the western and central CONUS, with a primary embedded shortwave trough developing from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. The parent upper low will deepen slightly through the period as it moves from the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar path to the upper low, being vertically stacked. A broad fetch of southwesterly low-level flow will spread northward ahead of the low, but low-level moisture will lag, as will destabilization. While cold air aloft and areas of daytime heating may lead to weak instability over the upper MS Valley, substantial midlevel drying will also occur. As such, the plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley is expected to remain inactive as ascent will be well north of that area. Elevated CAPE up to 250 J/kg may support scattered weak convection north of the midlevel jet, most likely from MN into WI during the afternoon. The weak instability levels should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a large upper trough will affect much of the western and central CONUS, with a primary embedded shortwave trough developing from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. The parent upper low will deepen slightly through the period as it moves from the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar path to the upper low, being vertically stacked. A broad fetch of southwesterly low-level flow will spread northward ahead of the low, but low-level moisture will lag, as will destabilization. While cold air aloft and areas of daytime heating may lead to weak instability over the upper MS Valley, substantial midlevel drying will also occur. As such, the plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley is expected to remain inactive as ascent will be well north of that area. Elevated CAPE up to 250 J/kg may support scattered weak convection north of the midlevel jet, most likely from MN into WI during the afternoon. The weak instability levels should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a large upper trough will affect much of the western and central CONUS, with a primary embedded shortwave trough developing from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. The parent upper low will deepen slightly through the period as it moves from the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar path to the upper low, being vertically stacked. A broad fetch of southwesterly low-level flow will spread northward ahead of the low, but low-level moisture will lag, as will destabilization. While cold air aloft and areas of daytime heating may lead to weak instability over the upper MS Valley, substantial midlevel drying will also occur. As such, the plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley is expected to remain inactive as ascent will be well north of that area. Elevated CAPE up to 250 J/kg may support scattered weak convection north of the midlevel jet, most likely from MN into WI during the afternoon. The weak instability levels should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a large upper trough will affect much of the western and central CONUS, with a primary embedded shortwave trough developing from the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. The parent upper low will deepen slightly through the period as it moves from the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, low pressure will follow a similar path to the upper low, being vertically stacked. A broad fetch of southwesterly low-level flow will spread northward ahead of the low, but low-level moisture will lag, as will destabilization. While cold air aloft and areas of daytime heating may lead to weak instability over the upper MS Valley, substantial midlevel drying will also occur. As such, the plume of 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley is expected to remain inactive as ascent will be well north of that area. Elevated CAPE up to 250 J/kg may support scattered weak convection north of the midlevel jet, most likely from MN into WI during the afternoon. The weak instability levels should preclude any severe threat. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will progress toward the East Coast as a pronounced mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states tomorrow/Wednesday. Surface high pressure and associated dry air (i.e. RH below 35 percent in spots) will linger around the Appalachians and points east. A surface cyclone will develop over the northern High Plains, encouraging moisture return across the southern and central Plains, but dry downslope flow across portions of far western Texas. In general, fuels remain poorly receptive to fire spread in most locations, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights anywhere across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today as a mid-level trough impinges on the Rocky Mountains. Rain and snow accompanying the mid-level trough will continue across California into the Interior West while surface high pressure will encourage relatively weak surface winds atop poorly receptive fuels east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today as a mid-level trough impinges on the Rocky Mountains. Rain and snow accompanying the mid-level trough will continue across California into the Interior West while surface high pressure will encourage relatively weak surface winds atop poorly receptive fuels east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today as a mid-level trough impinges on the Rocky Mountains. Rain and snow accompanying the mid-level trough will continue across California into the Interior West while surface high pressure will encourage relatively weak surface winds atop poorly receptive fuels east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today as a mid-level trough impinges on the Rocky Mountains. Rain and snow accompanying the mid-level trough will continue across California into the Interior West while surface high pressure will encourage relatively weak surface winds atop poorly receptive fuels east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today as a mid-level trough impinges on the Rocky Mountains. Rain and snow accompanying the mid-level trough will continue across California into the Interior West while surface high pressure will encourage relatively weak surface winds atop poorly receptive fuels east of the Rockies. The net result will be quiescent fire weather conditions across the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the West on Wednesday, with an intense shortwave moving from northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Behind this lead wave, low heights with cold temperatures aloft will remain over the West Coast as a backside wave pushes south along the coast. Preceding the Plains wave, low pressure will develop over the central and northern Plains, with increasing southerly winds at the surface. However, given the prominent surface ridge over the East, poor moisture return is forecast. Indeed, little to no instability is forecast to develop over the central High Plains in the synoptically favored area, though weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out. Overall, the threat of thunderstorms across the warm sector is very low. A greater chance of scattered thunderstorms will occur beneath the cold air aloft and mainly confined to the Four Corners states, and perhaps near the Coastal Range in southern CA. Favored areas for diurnal development will be along the Mogollon Rim and perhaps over the higher terrain of northern NM. While sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over parts of the central Plains, chances appear less than 10% at this time. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over the West on Wednesday, with an intense shortwave moving from northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Behind this lead wave, low heights with cold temperatures aloft will remain over the West Coast as a backside wave pushes south along the coast. Preceding the Plains wave, low pressure will develop over the central and northern Plains, with increasing southerly winds at the surface. However, given the prominent surface ridge over the East, poor moisture return is forecast. Indeed, little to no instability is forecast to develop over the central High Plains in the synoptically favored area, though weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out. Overall, the threat of thunderstorms across the warm sector is very low. A greater chance of scattered thunderstorms will occur beneath the cold air aloft and mainly confined to the Four Corners states, and perhaps near the Coastal Range in southern CA. Favored areas for diurnal development will be along the Mogollon Rim and perhaps over the higher terrain of northern NM. While sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over parts of the central Plains, chances appear less than 10% at this time. ..Jewell.. 02/06/2024 Read more