Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas this evening into tonight. ...20z Update... Aside from trimming general thunderstorm probabilities from parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, no changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of south-central/southeast Texas, posing a risk of large hail and strong gusts. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/ ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including an organizing cluster or two, are expected from central Texas coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning into the early evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity from the Middle/Upper Texas Coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Gulf Coast... A series of midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing somewhere from east TX toward coastal LA and the adjacent Gulf waters during the morning hours. However, large spread continues in 12z CAM guidance regarding placement of early convection and subsequent downstream evolution through the morning and into the afternoon. Height tendencies will remain fairly neutral through much of the period across the Gulf Coast. However, a cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf to near the LA and Mid/Upper TX Coasts Sunday morning. The front will not move much or only slowly sag southward through the morning. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a cluster or small MCS developing/ongoing near the TX coast early in the period. Depending on the surface boundary position, and where exactly this convection is located, severe thunderstorm potential is possible along the Gulf Coast through the afternoon as convection shifts east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and there is some potential severe potential will remain just offshore. Additionally, given timing of convection during the morning, degree of downstream destabilization and impact of low-level inhibition due to limited heating foster additional uncertainty. If the surface boundary remains inland, supporting a very moist boundary-layer, favorable vertical shear will support organized convection. The main concern with storms, especially if a small MCS or convective line develops, will be strong gusts/locally damaging winds. Enhanced 0-1 km SRH within the frontal zone also may support a brief spin-up. Given aforementioned uncertainties in placement, timing, destabilization, etc., will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. If confidence increases a small area of the central Gulf Coast (southeast LA, far southern MS/AL) may need outlook upgrade in later outlooks. ...Central Texas... Elevated thunderstorms are expected during the morning and afternoon. While the surface cold front will sag southward through the day, warm advection and abundant midlevel moisture atop the cooler boundary-layer will remain in place. Modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear will support organized cells with some potential for sporadic hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for low-end hail potential. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including an organizing cluster or two, are expected from central Texas coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning into the early evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity from the Middle/Upper Texas Coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Gulf Coast... A series of midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing somewhere from east TX toward coastal LA and the adjacent Gulf waters during the morning hours. However, large spread continues in 12z CAM guidance regarding placement of early convection and subsequent downstream evolution through the morning and into the afternoon. Height tendencies will remain fairly neutral through much of the period across the Gulf Coast. However, a cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf to near the LA and Mid/Upper TX Coasts Sunday morning. The front will not move much or only slowly sag southward through the morning. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a cluster or small MCS developing/ongoing near the TX coast early in the period. Depending on the surface boundary position, and where exactly this convection is located, severe thunderstorm potential is possible along the Gulf Coast through the afternoon as convection shifts east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and there is some potential severe potential will remain just offshore. Additionally, given timing of convection during the morning, degree of downstream destabilization and impact of low-level inhibition due to limited heating foster additional uncertainty. If the surface boundary remains inland, supporting a very moist boundary-layer, favorable vertical shear will support organized convection. The main concern with storms, especially if a small MCS or convective line develops, will be strong gusts/locally damaging winds. Enhanced 0-1 km SRH within the frontal zone also may support a brief spin-up. Given aforementioned uncertainties in placement, timing, destabilization, etc., will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. If confidence increases a small area of the central Gulf Coast (southeast LA, far southern MS/AL) may need outlook upgrade in later outlooks. ...Central Texas... Elevated thunderstorms are expected during the morning and afternoon. While the surface cold front will sag southward through the day, warm advection and abundant midlevel moisture atop the cooler boundary-layer will remain in place. Modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear will support organized cells with some potential for sporadic hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for low-end hail potential. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 Read more