Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024 Read more

MD 0269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE LA GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the LA Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171254Z - 171500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps some hail may develop this morning. DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing this morning across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and adjacent portions of the LA and upper TX coasts, in association with a convectively enhanced shortwave trough. Continued upscale growth into an eastward-moving MCS is possible with time, as convection moves near/north of a baroclinic zone draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico. With the accompanying MCV expected to track near the coast, some threat for locally damaging gusts may evolve slightly inland if an organized MCS does develop. Otherwise, moderate elevated buoyancy could support an isolated hail threat within the warm-advection wing of the MCS across far southern LA. With the inland threat expected to remain generally limited in areal coverage and magnitude, watch issuance is currently considered unlikely. ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29709333 29909326 29939174 29889066 29759003 29408991 29238992 29048999 28989038 29069100 29079147 29159210 29229279 29409309 29579328 29709333 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf coast through this evening... A Rex block will be maintained over the western CONUS, while a northern stream shortwave trough digs south-southeastward over the upper Midwest. A reinforcing cool surge will accompany the amplifying northern stream, while a southern stream will persist over the Gulf coast, east of the closed low over AZ. A developing MCS near the northwest Gulf coast is expected to move generally eastward today near the northern Gulf coast, roughly along a quasi-stationary front across the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, much of the convection will remain a little offshore, with inland threats for damaging wind/hail limited to the northern comma head of the MCV, and more cellular (slightly elevated) convection in the warm advection wing east of the MCV across southern LA (near the north edge of the richer low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy). The weakening MCS is expected to reach the FL Panhandle late this afternoon and the isolated severe threat will diminish by this evening. Farther west, the potential for additional strong-severe storm development is quite uncertain into TX. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous at best in the wake of the MCV, and the remaining warm sector will be displaced southward this evening into tonight by a reinforcing cool surge. For these reasons, have opted to remove the Marginal risk area from TX. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf coast through this evening... A Rex block will be maintained over the western CONUS, while a northern stream shortwave trough digs south-southeastward over the upper Midwest. A reinforcing cool surge will accompany the amplifying northern stream, while a southern stream will persist over the Gulf coast, east of the closed low over AZ. A developing MCS near the northwest Gulf coast is expected to move generally eastward today near the northern Gulf coast, roughly along a quasi-stationary front across the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, much of the convection will remain a little offshore, with inland threats for damaging wind/hail limited to the northern comma head of the MCV, and more cellular (slightly elevated) convection in the warm advection wing east of the MCV across southern LA (near the north edge of the richer low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy). The weakening MCS is expected to reach the FL Panhandle late this afternoon and the isolated severe threat will diminish by this evening. Farther west, the potential for additional strong-severe storm development is quite uncertain into TX. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous at best in the wake of the MCV, and the remaining warm sector will be displaced southward this evening into tonight by a reinforcing cool surge. For these reasons, have opted to remove the Marginal risk area from TX. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf coast through this evening... A Rex block will be maintained over the western CONUS, while a northern stream shortwave trough digs south-southeastward over the upper Midwest. A reinforcing cool surge will accompany the amplifying northern stream, while a southern stream will persist over the Gulf coast, east of the closed low over AZ. A developing MCS near the northwest Gulf coast is expected to move generally eastward today near the northern Gulf coast, roughly along a quasi-stationary front across the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, much of the convection will remain a little offshore, with inland threats for damaging wind/hail limited to the northern comma head of the MCV, and more cellular (slightly elevated) convection in the warm advection wing east of the MCV across southern LA (near the north edge of the richer low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy). The weakening MCS is expected to reach the FL Panhandle late this afternoon and the isolated severe threat will diminish by this evening. Farther west, the potential for additional strong-severe storm development is quite uncertain into TX. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous at best in the wake of the MCV, and the remaining warm sector will be displaced southward this evening into tonight by a reinforcing cool surge. For these reasons, have opted to remove the Marginal risk area from TX. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf coast through this evening... A Rex block will be maintained over the western CONUS, while a northern stream shortwave trough digs south-southeastward over the upper Midwest. A reinforcing cool surge will accompany the amplifying northern stream, while a southern stream will persist over the Gulf coast, east of the closed low over AZ. A developing MCS near the northwest Gulf coast is expected to move generally eastward today near the northern Gulf coast, roughly along a quasi-stationary front across the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, much of the convection will remain a little offshore, with inland threats for damaging wind/hail limited to the northern comma head of the MCV, and more cellular (slightly elevated) convection in the warm advection wing east of the MCV across southern LA (near the north edge of the richer low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy). The weakening MCS is expected to reach the FL Panhandle late this afternoon and the isolated severe threat will diminish by this evening. Farther west, the potential for additional strong-severe storm development is quite uncertain into TX. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous at best in the wake of the MCV, and the remaining warm sector will be displaced southward this evening into tonight by a reinforcing cool surge. For these reasons, have opted to remove the Marginal risk area from TX. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf coast through this evening... A Rex block will be maintained over the western CONUS, while a northern stream shortwave trough digs south-southeastward over the upper Midwest. A reinforcing cool surge will accompany the amplifying northern stream, while a southern stream will persist over the Gulf coast, east of the closed low over AZ. A developing MCS near the northwest Gulf coast is expected to move generally eastward today near the northern Gulf coast, roughly along a quasi-stationary front across the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, much of the convection will remain a little offshore, with inland threats for damaging wind/hail limited to the northern comma head of the MCV, and more cellular (slightly elevated) convection in the warm advection wing east of the MCV across southern LA (near the north edge of the richer low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy). The weakening MCS is expected to reach the FL Panhandle late this afternoon and the isolated severe threat will diminish by this evening. Farther west, the potential for additional strong-severe storm development is quite uncertain into TX. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous at best in the wake of the MCV, and the remaining warm sector will be displaced southward this evening into tonight by a reinforcing cool surge. For these reasons, have opted to remove the Marginal risk area from TX. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. ...Gulf coast through this evening... A Rex block will be maintained over the western CONUS, while a northern stream shortwave trough digs south-southeastward over the upper Midwest. A reinforcing cool surge will accompany the amplifying northern stream, while a southern stream will persist over the Gulf coast, east of the closed low over AZ. A developing MCS near the northwest Gulf coast is expected to move generally eastward today near the northern Gulf coast, roughly along a quasi-stationary front across the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, much of the convection will remain a little offshore, with inland threats for damaging wind/hail limited to the northern comma head of the MCV, and more cellular (slightly elevated) convection in the warm advection wing east of the MCV across southern LA (near the north edge of the richer low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy). The weakening MCS is expected to reach the FL Panhandle late this afternoon and the isolated severe threat will diminish by this evening. Farther west, the potential for additional strong-severe storm development is quite uncertain into TX. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous at best in the wake of the MCV, and the remaining warm sector will be displaced southward this evening into tonight by a reinforcing cool surge. For these reasons, have opted to remove the Marginal risk area from TX. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/17/2024 Read more

MD 0268 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56... Valid 170824Z - 171000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for localized hail and strong gusts remains possible across parts of south TX, but the threat appears too isolated for additional watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has struggled to remain organized across parts of south TX early this morning, though occasional upticks in intensity have been noted with individual cells, accompanied by increased hail potential (as noted in MRMS MESH data). While MUCAPE is generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range across the region, some MUCINH remains due to warm temperatures in the 800-700 mb layer. Much of the convection is likely rooted near/above this layer, with less available buoyancy, though isolated hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. If any cells can become rooted closer to the surface, then available buoyancy and effective shear would both increase, with some supercell potential. However, this scenario remains highly conditional, with large-scale ascent expected to weaken as a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough begins to move away from the region. Unless an uptick in storm organization is observed, additional watch issuance is not expected. ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28299873 28949784 28819669 28239650 27049686 26589759 26709857 26929893 27629881 28189874 28299873 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range model output indicates little substantive change to general forecast trends for the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. Initial large-scale mid-level troughing, east of the Mississippi Valley through western Atlantic, is forecast to gradually deamplify and shift into the northern Atlantic. Within a more zonal split flow in its wake, a low amplitude wave emerging from the Southwest may dig east-southeast of the Rockies through much of the Southeast, before possibly contributing to substantive surface cyclogenesis within amplifying flow offshore of the southern Atlantic coast early next weekend. Upstream, flow evolution subsequent to the development of a blocking high near the Gulf of Alaska is much more unclear, based on the spread evident within the model output. In general, it appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may develop inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains next weekend, contributing to potential for significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies. However, this may be preceded by a vigorous perturbation digging south of the Canadian Arctic, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward. This probably will be accompanied by another significant cold intrusion to the lee of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, though it remains unclear how far south this air mass may penetrate before slowing and modifying, which will have at least some impact on the location and strength of any lee cyclogenesis. In the wake of the amplifying wave offshore of the south Atlantic coast, moistening on strengthening southerly return flow off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer will probably be limited as well, at least initially. But it is not out of the question that developments could support increasing organized severe weather potential across parts of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley by late next weekend, if not earlier. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range model output indicates little substantive change to general forecast trends for the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. Initial large-scale mid-level troughing, east of the Mississippi Valley through western Atlantic, is forecast to gradually deamplify and shift into the northern Atlantic. Within a more zonal split flow in its wake, a low amplitude wave emerging from the Southwest may dig east-southeast of the Rockies through much of the Southeast, before possibly contributing to substantive surface cyclogenesis within amplifying flow offshore of the southern Atlantic coast early next weekend. Upstream, flow evolution subsequent to the development of a blocking high near the Gulf of Alaska is much more unclear, based on the spread evident within the model output. In general, it appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may develop inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains next weekend, contributing to potential for significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies. However, this may be preceded by a vigorous perturbation digging south of the Canadian Arctic, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward. This probably will be accompanied by another significant cold intrusion to the lee of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, though it remains unclear how far south this air mass may penetrate before slowing and modifying, which will have at least some impact on the location and strength of any lee cyclogenesis. In the wake of the amplifying wave offshore of the south Atlantic coast, moistening on strengthening southerly return flow off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer will probably be limited as well, at least initially. But it is not out of the question that developments could support increasing organized severe weather potential across parts of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley by late next weekend, if not earlier. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range model output indicates little substantive change to general forecast trends for the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. Initial large-scale mid-level troughing, east of the Mississippi Valley through western Atlantic, is forecast to gradually deamplify and shift into the northern Atlantic. Within a more zonal split flow in its wake, a low amplitude wave emerging from the Southwest may dig east-southeast of the Rockies through much of the Southeast, before possibly contributing to substantive surface cyclogenesis within amplifying flow offshore of the southern Atlantic coast early next weekend. Upstream, flow evolution subsequent to the development of a blocking high near the Gulf of Alaska is much more unclear, based on the spread evident within the model output. In general, it appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may develop inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains next weekend, contributing to potential for significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies. However, this may be preceded by a vigorous perturbation digging south of the Canadian Arctic, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward. This probably will be accompanied by another significant cold intrusion to the lee of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, though it remains unclear how far south this air mass may penetrate before slowing and modifying, which will have at least some impact on the location and strength of any lee cyclogenesis. In the wake of the amplifying wave offshore of the south Atlantic coast, moistening on strengthening southerly return flow off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer will probably be limited as well, at least initially. But it is not out of the question that developments could support increasing organized severe weather potential across parts of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley by late next weekend, if not earlier. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range model output indicates little substantive change to general forecast trends for the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. Initial large-scale mid-level troughing, east of the Mississippi Valley through western Atlantic, is forecast to gradually deamplify and shift into the northern Atlantic. Within a more zonal split flow in its wake, a low amplitude wave emerging from the Southwest may dig east-southeast of the Rockies through much of the Southeast, before possibly contributing to substantive surface cyclogenesis within amplifying flow offshore of the southern Atlantic coast early next weekend. Upstream, flow evolution subsequent to the development of a blocking high near the Gulf of Alaska is much more unclear, based on the spread evident within the model output. In general, it appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may develop inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains next weekend, contributing to potential for significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies. However, this may be preceded by a vigorous perturbation digging south of the Canadian Arctic, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward. This probably will be accompanied by another significant cold intrusion to the lee of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, though it remains unclear how far south this air mass may penetrate before slowing and modifying, which will have at least some impact on the location and strength of any lee cyclogenesis. In the wake of the amplifying wave offshore of the south Atlantic coast, moistening on strengthening southerly return flow off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer will probably be limited as well, at least initially. But it is not out of the question that developments could support increasing organized severe weather potential across parts of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley by late next weekend, if not earlier. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range model output indicates little substantive change to general forecast trends for the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. Initial large-scale mid-level troughing, east of the Mississippi Valley through western Atlantic, is forecast to gradually deamplify and shift into the northern Atlantic. Within a more zonal split flow in its wake, a low amplitude wave emerging from the Southwest may dig east-southeast of the Rockies through much of the Southeast, before possibly contributing to substantive surface cyclogenesis within amplifying flow offshore of the southern Atlantic coast early next weekend. Upstream, flow evolution subsequent to the development of a blocking high near the Gulf of Alaska is much more unclear, based on the spread evident within the model output. In general, it appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may develop inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains next weekend, contributing to potential for significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies. However, this may be preceded by a vigorous perturbation digging south of the Canadian Arctic, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward. This probably will be accompanied by another significant cold intrusion to the lee of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, though it remains unclear how far south this air mass may penetrate before slowing and modifying, which will have at least some impact on the location and strength of any lee cyclogenesis. In the wake of the amplifying wave offshore of the south Atlantic coast, moistening on strengthening southerly return flow off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer will probably be limited as well, at least initially. But it is not out of the question that developments could support increasing organized severe weather potential across parts of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley by late next weekend, if not earlier. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range model output indicates little substantive change to general forecast trends for the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. Initial large-scale mid-level troughing, east of the Mississippi Valley through western Atlantic, is forecast to gradually deamplify and shift into the northern Atlantic. Within a more zonal split flow in its wake, a low amplitude wave emerging from the Southwest may dig east-southeast of the Rockies through much of the Southeast, before possibly contributing to substantive surface cyclogenesis within amplifying flow offshore of the southern Atlantic coast early next weekend. Upstream, flow evolution subsequent to the development of a blocking high near the Gulf of Alaska is much more unclear, based on the spread evident within the model output. In general, it appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may develop inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains next weekend, contributing to potential for significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies. However, this may be preceded by a vigorous perturbation digging south of the Canadian Arctic, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward. This probably will be accompanied by another significant cold intrusion to the lee of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, though it remains unclear how far south this air mass may penetrate before slowing and modifying, which will have at least some impact on the location and strength of any lee cyclogenesis. In the wake of the amplifying wave offshore of the south Atlantic coast, moistening on strengthening southerly return flow off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer will probably be limited as well, at least initially. But it is not out of the question that developments could support increasing organized severe weather potential across parts of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley by late next weekend, if not earlier. Read more