Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... It appears that a high will become better established during this period near or west of the Gulf of Alaska, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, models suggest that the blocking regime inland of the U.S. Pacific coast will continue to break down, and the remnant Southwestern low may begin to transition to a low amplitude wave. Eastward progress toward the southern Rockies will likely be slow, with flow east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau strongly confluent, as large-scale downstream troughing generally maintains higher amplitude east of the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this trough, the boundary layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by a significant intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. However, within a developing area of mid-level ascent (supported by warm advection based around 700 mb) spreading northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning, residual moisture farther aloft may contribute to weak destabilization, and elevated convection which may become capable of producing some lightning. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms may generally remain confined to portions of the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday evening, aided by weak destabilization beneath the mid-level cold pool associated with the eastward migrating short wave perturbation. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... It appears that a high will become better established during this period near or west of the Gulf of Alaska, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, models suggest that the blocking regime inland of the U.S. Pacific coast will continue to break down, and the remnant Southwestern low may begin to transition to a low amplitude wave. Eastward progress toward the southern Rockies will likely be slow, with flow east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau strongly confluent, as large-scale downstream troughing generally maintains higher amplitude east of the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this trough, the boundary layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by a significant intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. However, within a developing area of mid-level ascent (supported by warm advection based around 700 mb) spreading northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning, residual moisture farther aloft may contribute to weak destabilization, and elevated convection which may become capable of producing some lightning. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms may generally remain confined to portions of the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday evening, aided by weak destabilization beneath the mid-level cold pool associated with the eastward migrating short wave perturbation. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... It appears that a high will become better established during this period near or west of the Gulf of Alaska, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, models suggest that the blocking regime inland of the U.S. Pacific coast will continue to break down, and the remnant Southwestern low may begin to transition to a low amplitude wave. Eastward progress toward the southern Rockies will likely be slow, with flow east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau strongly confluent, as large-scale downstream troughing generally maintains higher amplitude east of the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this trough, the boundary layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by a significant intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. However, within a developing area of mid-level ascent (supported by warm advection based around 700 mb) spreading northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning, residual moisture farther aloft may contribute to weak destabilization, and elevated convection which may become capable of producing some lightning. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms may generally remain confined to portions of the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday evening, aided by weak destabilization beneath the mid-level cold pool associated with the eastward migrating short wave perturbation. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... It appears that a high will become better established during this period near or west of the Gulf of Alaska, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, models suggest that the blocking regime inland of the U.S. Pacific coast will continue to break down, and the remnant Southwestern low may begin to transition to a low amplitude wave. Eastward progress toward the southern Rockies will likely be slow, with flow east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau strongly confluent, as large-scale downstream troughing generally maintains higher amplitude east of the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this trough, the boundary layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by a significant intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. However, within a developing area of mid-level ascent (supported by warm advection based around 700 mb) spreading northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning, residual moisture farther aloft may contribute to weak destabilization, and elevated convection which may become capable of producing some lightning. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms may generally remain confined to portions of the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday evening, aided by weak destabilization beneath the mid-level cold pool associated with the eastward migrating short wave perturbation. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... It appears that a high will become better established during this period near or west of the Gulf of Alaska, within amplified split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, models suggest that the blocking regime inland of the U.S. Pacific coast will continue to break down, and the remnant Southwestern low may begin to transition to a low amplitude wave. Eastward progress toward the southern Rockies will likely be slow, with flow east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau strongly confluent, as large-scale downstream troughing generally maintains higher amplitude east of the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this trough, the boundary layer across all but southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been stabilized by a significant intrusion of cool/dry air by early Tuesday. However, within a developing area of mid-level ascent (supported by warm advection based around 700 mb) spreading northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning, residual moisture farther aloft may contribute to weak destabilization, and elevated convection which may become capable of producing some lightning. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms may generally remain confined to portions of the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday evening, aided by weak destabilization beneath the mid-level cold pool associated with the eastward migrating short wave perturbation. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW LRD TO 30 SSW COT TO 35 NNW HDO. ..DEAN..03/17/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-047-131-163-247-249-273-283-297-311-325-355-409-427- 479-505-170740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BROOKS DUVAL FRIO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MEDINA NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB ZAPATA GMZ231-232-170740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more