Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0267 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Areas affected...parts of south Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170239Z - 170445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected across parts of south Texas late this evening, some of which may produce hail and gusty winds. A watch may be issued. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast Mexico in advance of a subtle shortwave trough apparent in water vapor satellite imagery. Across south Texas, some nocturnal surface stabilization has occurred. However, an ACARS profile from San Antonio and regional RAP profiles indicate the presence of a deep moist layer, which should continue to support convection even in the presence of a surface stable layer. Given diffuse low-level forcing for ascent, storms are expected to remain cellular, though some clustering is apparent in short-term model guidance. In addition, with deep CAPE profiles and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates along with long, straight hodographs (effective bulk shear values of 50-60 kts), large hail is expected to be the primary threat. Additionally, some gusty winds are possible with any clustering that occurs, though this is mitigated by the relatively moist profile. Short-term model guidance indicates storms will continue eastward across south Texas through the night before moving off the coast early in the morning. ..Supinie/Goss.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 27829998 29110093 29600014 29819895 29699805 29269725 28619694 27899703 27489763 26929876 26659932 27829998 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south-central/southeast Texas tonight. ...Central TX to the TX coastal plain and southwest LA... A mid-level low over the Desert Southwest will move little through early Sunday morning. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a lower-latitude shortwave trough moving east-northeast across northern Mexico, and this feature will move across southern TX tonight. A corresponding increase in large-scale ascent and an accompanying intensification of mid-level flow will overspread south-central TX later this evening and into the coastal plain overnight. 00z Corpus Christi and Brownsville observed soundings show 8 to 8.5 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates with strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow. Short-term model guidance continues to indicate thunderstorms developing over northern Mexico this evening with additional development near/east of the Rio Grande later this evening. CAPE/shear profiles favor organized thunderstorms, with supercells being the preferential mode at least early in the convective life cycle. A threat of large to very large hail is likely with the more robust supercells. A gradual transition to greater storm coverage and clustering of storms will probably occur along the stalled frontal zone draped over the region. Severe gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible as some upscale growth occurs, and especially as storms move east into a more moisture-rich environment near the coastal plain late. ..Smith.. 03/17/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 16 22:29:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 16 22:29:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central/eastern CONUS will gradually shift east on D3/Mon through D5/Wed, with strong mid-level flow persisting over the northern Great Plains during this time frame. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff upper-level low over the Southwest should remain quasi-stationary, before eventually shifting east into the Southern Plains by D5/Wed and remain somewhat weak during this evolution. Thereafter, a zonal flow pattern will setup before another upper-level trough develops over the central/eastern CONUS by the end of week. Despite the indication of strong northwest upper-level flow over the central CONUS, cool surface temperatures accompanying this flow regime should help limit RH values from approaching critical thresholds. Elsewhere, perhaps localized concerns may emerge with the ejecting upper-level low, but given the expected weak flow aloft, potential for widespread areas approaching critical thresholds appears low. Therefore, fire-weather concerns across the CONUS remain low for most of next week. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more