Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon. While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves, which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel reports). ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to suggest that flow will trend more progressive across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific by early this coming weekend. As this occurs, a blocking regime initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to breakdown, with flow subsequently amplifying downstream, across the U.S. into western Atlantic. It appears that this will include mid/upper trough amplification across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast on Saturday, accompanied by strengthening cyclogenesis. Surface frontal wave development is still generally forecast to remain more modest across the northeastern Gulf/eastern Gulf Coast into Georgia/Carolina Atlantic coast vicinity Friday through Friday night, but there may be considerable convective development within a destabilizing environment along a warm frontal zone across the Gulf of Mexico by early Friday. It appears that this will spread across the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys during the day Friday. However, models suggest that an initially (relatively) dry/potentially cool environment may preclude an appreciable risk of severe storms, as initial convection spreads into this environment, weakens and suppresses destabilization. Late this coming weekend into early next week, models continue to suggest that short wave perturbations, within amplifying large-scale mid-level troughing spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, severe weather potential in association with this still seems largely conditioned on the degree of warm sector destabilization, which remains unclear. In the wake of one significant intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin, reinforced at least somewhat in the wake of the amplifying system off the South Atlantic coast early this weekend, low-level moisture return to the warm sector remains in question. More substantive low-level moistening appears probable into the southeastern Great Plains on Monday, compared to the central/southern high plains on Sunday. However, as this occurs and model spread becomes more pronounced concerning a short wave emerging from the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to suggest that flow will trend more progressive across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific by early this coming weekend. As this occurs, a blocking regime initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to breakdown, with flow subsequently amplifying downstream, across the U.S. into western Atlantic. It appears that this will include mid/upper trough amplification across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast on Saturday, accompanied by strengthening cyclogenesis. Surface frontal wave development is still generally forecast to remain more modest across the northeastern Gulf/eastern Gulf Coast into Georgia/Carolina Atlantic coast vicinity Friday through Friday night, but there may be considerable convective development within a destabilizing environment along a warm frontal zone across the Gulf of Mexico by early Friday. It appears that this will spread across the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys during the day Friday. However, models suggest that an initially (relatively) dry/potentially cool environment may preclude an appreciable risk of severe storms, as initial convection spreads into this environment, weakens and suppresses destabilization. Late this coming weekend into early next week, models continue to suggest that short wave perturbations, within amplifying large-scale mid-level troughing spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, severe weather potential in association with this still seems largely conditioned on the degree of warm sector destabilization, which remains unclear. In the wake of one significant intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin, reinforced at least somewhat in the wake of the amplifying system off the South Atlantic coast early this weekend, low-level moisture return to the warm sector remains in question. More substantive low-level moistening appears probable into the southeastern Great Plains on Monday, compared to the central/southern high plains on Sunday. However, as this occurs and model spread becomes more pronounced concerning a short wave emerging from the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to suggest that flow will trend more progressive across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific by early this coming weekend. As this occurs, a blocking regime initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to breakdown, with flow subsequently amplifying downstream, across the U.S. into western Atlantic. It appears that this will include mid/upper trough amplification across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast on Saturday, accompanied by strengthening cyclogenesis. Surface frontal wave development is still generally forecast to remain more modest across the northeastern Gulf/eastern Gulf Coast into Georgia/Carolina Atlantic coast vicinity Friday through Friday night, but there may be considerable convective development within a destabilizing environment along a warm frontal zone across the Gulf of Mexico by early Friday. It appears that this will spread across the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys during the day Friday. However, models suggest that an initially (relatively) dry/potentially cool environment may preclude an appreciable risk of severe storms, as initial convection spreads into this environment, weakens and suppresses destabilization. Late this coming weekend into early next week, models continue to suggest that short wave perturbations, within amplifying large-scale mid-level troughing spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, severe weather potential in association with this still seems largely conditioned on the degree of warm sector destabilization, which remains unclear. In the wake of one significant intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin, reinforced at least somewhat in the wake of the amplifying system off the South Atlantic coast early this weekend, low-level moisture return to the warm sector remains in question. More substantive low-level moistening appears probable into the southeastern Great Plains on Monday, compared to the central/southern high plains on Sunday. However, as this occurs and model spread becomes more pronounced concerning a short wave emerging from the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to suggest that flow will trend more progressive across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific by early this coming weekend. As this occurs, a blocking regime initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to breakdown, with flow subsequently amplifying downstream, across the U.S. into western Atlantic. It appears that this will include mid/upper trough amplification across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast on Saturday, accompanied by strengthening cyclogenesis. Surface frontal wave development is still generally forecast to remain more modest across the northeastern Gulf/eastern Gulf Coast into Georgia/Carolina Atlantic coast vicinity Friday through Friday night, but there may be considerable convective development within a destabilizing environment along a warm frontal zone across the Gulf of Mexico by early Friday. It appears that this will spread across the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys during the day Friday. However, models suggest that an initially (relatively) dry/potentially cool environment may preclude an appreciable risk of severe storms, as initial convection spreads into this environment, weakens and suppresses destabilization. Late this coming weekend into early next week, models continue to suggest that short wave perturbations, within amplifying large-scale mid-level troughing spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, severe weather potential in association with this still seems largely conditioned on the degree of warm sector destabilization, which remains unclear. In the wake of one significant intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin, reinforced at least somewhat in the wake of the amplifying system off the South Atlantic coast early this weekend, low-level moisture return to the warm sector remains in question. More substantive low-level moistening appears probable into the southeastern Great Plains on Monday, compared to the central/southern high plains on Sunday. However, as this occurs and model spread becomes more pronounced concerning a short wave emerging from the Southwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to suggest that flow will trend more progressive across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific by early this coming weekend. As this occurs, a blocking regime initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to breakdown, with flow subsequently amplifying downstream, across the U.S. into western Atlantic. It appears that this will include mid/upper trough amplification across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast on Saturday, accompanied by strengthening cyclogenesis. Surface frontal wave development is still generally forecast to remain more modest across the northeastern Gulf/eastern Gulf Coast into Georgia/Carolina Atlantic coast vicinity Friday through Friday night, but there may be considerable convective development within a destabilizing environment along a warm frontal zone across the Gulf of Mexico by early Friday. It appears that this will spread across the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys during the day Friday. However, models suggest that an initially (relatively) dry/potentially cool environment may preclude an appreciable risk of severe storms, as initial convection spreads into this environment, weakens and suppresses destabilization. Late this coming weekend into early next week, models continue to suggest that short wave perturbations, within amplifying large-scale mid-level troughing spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, severe weather potential in association with this still seems largely conditioned on the degree of warm sector destabilization, which remains unclear. In the wake of one significant intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin, reinforced at least somewhat in the wake of the amplifying system off the South Atlantic coast early this weekend, low-level moisture return to the warm sector remains in question. More substantive low-level moistening appears probable into the southeastern Great Plains on Monday, compared to the central/southern high plains on Sunday. However, as this occurs and model spread becomes more pronounced concerning a short wave emerging from the Southwest. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio and Missouri Valleys. Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although substantive spread is evident in the various model output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity early the period. A trailing perturbation may become better-defined while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night. Models suggest that this could support a developing surface low across the upper Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the western flank of a developing frontal zone extending east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak. ...Southeast Texas... Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas during the day. This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. There is some signal in the model output that this activity could grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast Texas becomes more unclear. Barring a substantive negative impact on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the primary upstream short wave may contribute to the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Although low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will probably also be possible. Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern Louisiana coastal areas. It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later outlooks. However, this may take a few cycles with much depending on sub-synoptic developments. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio and Missouri Valleys. Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although substantive spread is evident in the various model output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity early the period. A trailing perturbation may become better-defined while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night. Models suggest that this could support a developing surface low across the upper Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the western flank of a developing frontal zone extending east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak. ...Southeast Texas... Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas during the day. This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. There is some signal in the model output that this activity could grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast Texas becomes more unclear. Barring a substantive negative impact on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the primary upstream short wave may contribute to the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Although low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will probably also be possible. Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern Louisiana coastal areas. It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later outlooks. However, this may take a few cycles with much depending on sub-synoptic developments. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio and Missouri Valleys. Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although substantive spread is evident in the various model output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity early the period. A trailing perturbation may become better-defined while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night. Models suggest that this could support a developing surface low across the upper Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the western flank of a developing frontal zone extending east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak. ...Southeast Texas... Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas during the day. This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. There is some signal in the model output that this activity could grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast Texas becomes more unclear. Barring a substantive negative impact on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the primary upstream short wave may contribute to the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Although low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will probably also be possible. Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern Louisiana coastal areas. It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later outlooks. However, this may take a few cycles with much depending on sub-synoptic developments. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio and Missouri Valleys. Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although substantive spread is evident in the various model output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity early the period. A trailing perturbation may become better-defined while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night. Models suggest that this could support a developing surface low across the upper Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the western flank of a developing frontal zone extending east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak. ...Southeast Texas... Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas during the day. This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. There is some signal in the model output that this activity could grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast Texas becomes more unclear. Barring a substantive negative impact on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the primary upstream short wave may contribute to the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Although low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will probably also be possible. Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern Louisiana coastal areas. It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later outlooks. However, this may take a few cycles with much depending on sub-synoptic developments. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio and Missouri Valleys. Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although substantive spread is evident in the various model output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity early the period. A trailing perturbation may become better-defined while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night. Models suggest that this could support a developing surface low across the upper Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the western flank of a developing frontal zone extending east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak. ...Southeast Texas... Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas during the day. This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. There is some signal in the model output that this activity could grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast Texas becomes more unclear. Barring a substantive negative impact on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the primary upstream short wave may contribute to the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Although low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will probably also be possible. Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern Louisiana coastal areas. It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later outlooks. However, this may take a few cycles with much depending on sub-synoptic developments. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more