Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southeast Wyoming into adjacent areas of western Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the development of a strong downslope flow regime across central WY to the NE Panhandle. Spread in guidance has been sufficiently reduced to introduce a fire weather risk area. While ERCs remain somewhat marginal for much of the region, local reports suggest that fine, 1-hour fuels should be sufficiently dry to support a fire threat. 15-25 mph winds with 20-25% RH remains likely across this region, but drier/windier solutions hint at RH reductions down to 15% by peak heating. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southeast Wyoming into adjacent areas of western Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the development of a strong downslope flow regime across central WY to the NE Panhandle. Spread in guidance has been sufficiently reduced to introduce a fire weather risk area. While ERCs remain somewhat marginal for much of the region, local reports suggest that fine, 1-hour fuels should be sufficiently dry to support a fire threat. 15-25 mph winds with 20-25% RH remains likely across this region, but drier/windier solutions hint at RH reductions down to 15% by peak heating. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southeast Wyoming into adjacent areas of western Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the development of a strong downslope flow regime across central WY to the NE Panhandle. Spread in guidance has been sufficiently reduced to introduce a fire weather risk area. While ERCs remain somewhat marginal for much of the region, local reports suggest that fine, 1-hour fuels should be sufficiently dry to support a fire threat. 15-25 mph winds with 20-25% RH remains likely across this region, but drier/windier solutions hint at RH reductions down to 15% by peak heating. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southeast Wyoming into adjacent areas of western Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the development of a strong downslope flow regime across central WY to the NE Panhandle. Spread in guidance has been sufficiently reduced to introduce a fire weather risk area. While ERCs remain somewhat marginal for much of the region, local reports suggest that fine, 1-hour fuels should be sufficiently dry to support a fire threat. 15-25 mph winds with 20-25% RH remains likely across this region, but drier/windier solutions hint at RH reductions down to 15% by peak heating. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southeast Wyoming into adjacent areas of western Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the development of a strong downslope flow regime across central WY to the NE Panhandle. Spread in guidance has been sufficiently reduced to introduce a fire weather risk area. While ERCs remain somewhat marginal for much of the region, local reports suggest that fine, 1-hour fuels should be sufficiently dry to support a fire threat. 15-25 mph winds with 20-25% RH remains likely across this region, but drier/windier solutions hint at RH reductions down to 15% by peak heating. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southeast Wyoming into adjacent areas of western Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the development of a strong downslope flow regime across central WY to the NE Panhandle. Spread in guidance has been sufficiently reduced to introduce a fire weather risk area. While ERCs remain somewhat marginal for much of the region, local reports suggest that fine, 1-hour fuels should be sufficiently dry to support a fire threat. 15-25 mph winds with 20-25% RH remains likely across this region, but drier/windier solutions hint at RH reductions down to 15% by peak heating. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southeast Wyoming into adjacent areas of western Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the development of a strong downslope flow regime across central WY to the NE Panhandle. Spread in guidance has been sufficiently reduced to introduce a fire weather risk area. While ERCs remain somewhat marginal for much of the region, local reports suggest that fine, 1-hour fuels should be sufficiently dry to support a fire threat. 15-25 mph winds with 20-25% RH remains likely across this region, but drier/windier solutions hint at RH reductions down to 15% by peak heating. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southeast Wyoming into adjacent areas of western Nebraska. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the development of a strong downslope flow regime across central WY to the NE Panhandle. Spread in guidance has been sufficiently reduced to introduce a fire weather risk area. While ERCs remain somewhat marginal for much of the region, local reports suggest that fine, 1-hour fuels should be sufficiently dry to support a fire threat. 15-25 mph winds with 20-25% RH remains likely across this region, but drier/windier solutions hint at RH reductions down to 15% by peak heating. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Predominantly zonal mid-level flow is anticipated across the U.S. on Thursday, leading to generally mild conditions and low fire-weather concerns. Locally drier and windier conditions could develop in portions of the Southern and Central Plains, but confidence is currently too low in these scenarios to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...NE Panhandle and vicinity... Confidence has increased in a surface cyclone developing in the lee of the Rockies near the NE Panhandle throughout the day on Thursday. This will support some moisture return across the Southern Plains, as well as relatively dry, downsloping flow in the NE Panhandle, eastern WY, and northeastern CO. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers could yield relative humidities around 20 percent across the region with sustained winds of 15-20 mph. Fuels do not appear to be critically dry, but could support some fire spread (e.g., ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentiles in some areas). No Elevated area is delineated in this outlook due to slightly lower confidence in the location of the surface cyclone and attendant moisture gradients; guidance will be monitored for possible future inclusion. ...West TX... An area of slightly stronger mid-level flow is expected to overspread West TX on Thursday afternoon, contributing to locally gustier surface conditions. Wind speeds around 15-20 mph and relative humidities around 15-20 percent could contribute to local Elevated fire-weather conditions. However, highlighting a particular area is currently difficult due to the chance for wetting precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence in such a scenario will continue to be monitored, possibly warranting areal delineations in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through evening. ...Texas/Louisiana... An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through the day. Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km, amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg) suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection. Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. This second round of convection will shift east through the overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the Middle/Upper TX Coast. Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells developing into one or more clusters with time are expected. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX) to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more