Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ...Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ...Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ...Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to both Elevated risk areas based on morning observations and latest forecast guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions are already being observed across northern VA with RH values falling below 30%. This region will see the highest potential for transient critical fire weather conditions as RH values fall to 20-25% by late afternoon amid 15-25 mph winds. Elevated conditions are also noted across portions of the lower OH river valley, and may continue into the late morning hours. However, a gradual decrease in wind speeds should limit the overall fire weather potential. Across southwest TX, the 12 UTC EPZ sounding sampled steep lapse rates above 800 mb, which should facilitate downward mixing of 20-25 mph winds as boundary-layer mixing deepens this afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Separate areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon and evening in portions of the Southern High Plains and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... A shortwave mid-level trough is expected to gradually weaken and phase with the subtropical jet throughout the day today. As a result, modest westerly flow aloft will yield lee cyclogenesis along the NM/TX border and southerly moisture return across the Southern Plains. To the west, downsloping flow will support steadily drying conditions across southeastern NM and West TX with relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent and wind speeds around 15 mph. Steadily drying fuels -- amidst these dry, windy conditions -- are expected to support an Elevated fire-weather threat across the region this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... A belt of strong northwesterly mid-level flow will move through the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day today. This will support deep boundary-layer mixing and dry, windy surface conditions. Current guidance suggests relative humidities could drop to around 25-30 percent with sustained winds around 15 mph. Finer fuels have dried sufficiently to support some fire spread, warranting an Elevated area across the Mid-Atlantic region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE TX COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible early Thursday morning near the Texas coast. ...Western OK/TX Panhandle this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will begin to move eastward from AZ/NM toward west TX by tonight, with associated downstream cyclogenesis occurring today across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Low-level moisture return will be limited in the warm sector, with boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from 40-45 F as surface temperatures warm into the 70s this afternoon along a surface trough/front across western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will support weak buoyancy, and weak ascent along the boundaries could result in a few storms with the potential to produce marginally severe hail and strong outflow gusts. There is also a low probability of a non-mesocyclone tornado with developing updrafts along the slow-moving front in northwest OK later this afternoon, given steep low-level lapse rates/vertical vorticity along the front. ...South central TX to the coastal plain late tonight... Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest by tonight as a maritime tropical air mass spreads northward from the Bay of Campeche (along the prior stalled front) to the TX coast. Near the end of the period, destabilization will become sufficient for elevated thunderstorm development in the warm advection zone atop a diffuse coastal front. MUCAPE could reach 1000-1500 J/kg as moisture increase below midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, in an environment with sufficiently long hodographs (and some low-level curvature) for a conditional supercell/large hail threat mainly 09-12z. ...Southern New England this afternoon... A deepening midlevel trough will move from ON to New England, as an associated cold front moves across New England later today and cyclogenesis occurs tonight near the ME coast. Moisture/buoyancy will be scant at best ahead of the cold front across southern New England, where some shallow/forced convection may occur along the cold front this afternoon. The convection could be associated with a few strong gusts, but the potential for convectively driven severe gusts appears too low to warrant introduction of an outlook area. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE TX COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible early Thursday morning near the Texas coast. ...Western OK/TX Panhandle this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will begin to move eastward from AZ/NM toward west TX by tonight, with associated downstream cyclogenesis occurring today across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Low-level moisture return will be limited in the warm sector, with boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from 40-45 F as surface temperatures warm into the 70s this afternoon along a surface trough/front across western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will support weak buoyancy, and weak ascent along the boundaries could result in a few storms with the potential to produce marginally severe hail and strong outflow gusts. There is also a low probability of a non-mesocyclone tornado with developing updrafts along the slow-moving front in northwest OK later this afternoon, given steep low-level lapse rates/vertical vorticity along the front. ...South central TX to the coastal plain late tonight... Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest by tonight as a maritime tropical air mass spreads northward from the Bay of Campeche (along the prior stalled front) to the TX coast. Near the end of the period, destabilization will become sufficient for elevated thunderstorm development in the warm advection zone atop a diffuse coastal front. MUCAPE could reach 1000-1500 J/kg as moisture increase below midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, in an environment with sufficiently long hodographs (and some low-level curvature) for a conditional supercell/large hail threat mainly 09-12z. ...Southern New England this afternoon... A deepening midlevel trough will move from ON to New England, as an associated cold front moves across New England later today and cyclogenesis occurs tonight near the ME coast. Moisture/buoyancy will be scant at best ahead of the cold front across southern New England, where some shallow/forced convection may occur along the cold front this afternoon. The convection could be associated with a few strong gusts, but the potential for convectively driven severe gusts appears too low to warrant introduction of an outlook area. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE TX COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible early Thursday morning near the Texas coast. ...Western OK/TX Panhandle this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will begin to move eastward from AZ/NM toward west TX by tonight, with associated downstream cyclogenesis occurring today across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Low-level moisture return will be limited in the warm sector, with boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from 40-45 F as surface temperatures warm into the 70s this afternoon along a surface trough/front across western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will support weak buoyancy, and weak ascent along the boundaries could result in a few storms with the potential to produce marginally severe hail and strong outflow gusts. There is also a low probability of a non-mesocyclone tornado with developing updrafts along the slow-moving front in northwest OK later this afternoon, given steep low-level lapse rates/vertical vorticity along the front. ...South central TX to the coastal plain late tonight... Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest by tonight as a maritime tropical air mass spreads northward from the Bay of Campeche (along the prior stalled front) to the TX coast. Near the end of the period, destabilization will become sufficient for elevated thunderstorm development in the warm advection zone atop a diffuse coastal front. MUCAPE could reach 1000-1500 J/kg as moisture increase below midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, in an environment with sufficiently long hodographs (and some low-level curvature) for a conditional supercell/large hail threat mainly 09-12z. ...Southern New England this afternoon... A deepening midlevel trough will move from ON to New England, as an associated cold front moves across New England later today and cyclogenesis occurs tonight near the ME coast. Moisture/buoyancy will be scant at best ahead of the cold front across southern New England, where some shallow/forced convection may occur along the cold front this afternoon. The convection could be associated with a few strong gusts, but the potential for convectively driven severe gusts appears too low to warrant introduction of an outlook area. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE TX COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible early Thursday morning near the Texas coast. ...Western OK/TX Panhandle this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will begin to move eastward from AZ/NM toward west TX by tonight, with associated downstream cyclogenesis occurring today across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Low-level moisture return will be limited in the warm sector, with boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from 40-45 F as surface temperatures warm into the 70s this afternoon along a surface trough/front across western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will support weak buoyancy, and weak ascent along the boundaries could result in a few storms with the potential to produce marginally severe hail and strong outflow gusts. There is also a low probability of a non-mesocyclone tornado with developing updrafts along the slow-moving front in northwest OK later this afternoon, given steep low-level lapse rates/vertical vorticity along the front. ...South central TX to the coastal plain late tonight... Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest by tonight as a maritime tropical air mass spreads northward from the Bay of Campeche (along the prior stalled front) to the TX coast. Near the end of the period, destabilization will become sufficient for elevated thunderstorm development in the warm advection zone atop a diffuse coastal front. MUCAPE could reach 1000-1500 J/kg as moisture increase below midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, in an environment with sufficiently long hodographs (and some low-level curvature) for a conditional supercell/large hail threat mainly 09-12z. ...Southern New England this afternoon... A deepening midlevel trough will move from ON to New England, as an associated cold front moves across New England later today and cyclogenesis occurs tonight near the ME coast. Moisture/buoyancy will be scant at best ahead of the cold front across southern New England, where some shallow/forced convection may occur along the cold front this afternoon. The convection could be associated with a few strong gusts, but the potential for convectively driven severe gusts appears too low to warrant introduction of an outlook area. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE TX COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible early Thursday morning near the Texas coast. ...Western OK/TX Panhandle this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will begin to move eastward from AZ/NM toward west TX by tonight, with associated downstream cyclogenesis occurring today across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Low-level moisture return will be limited in the warm sector, with boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from 40-45 F as surface temperatures warm into the 70s this afternoon along a surface trough/front across western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will support weak buoyancy, and weak ascent along the boundaries could result in a few storms with the potential to produce marginally severe hail and strong outflow gusts. There is also a low probability of a non-mesocyclone tornado with developing updrafts along the slow-moving front in northwest OK later this afternoon, given steep low-level lapse rates/vertical vorticity along the front. ...South central TX to the coastal plain late tonight... Low-level moisture return will occur in earnest by tonight as a maritime tropical air mass spreads northward from the Bay of Campeche (along the prior stalled front) to the TX coast. Near the end of the period, destabilization will become sufficient for elevated thunderstorm development in the warm advection zone atop a diffuse coastal front. MUCAPE could reach 1000-1500 J/kg as moisture increase below midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, in an environment with sufficiently long hodographs (and some low-level curvature) for a conditional supercell/large hail threat mainly 09-12z. ...Southern New England this afternoon... A deepening midlevel trough will move from ON to New England, as an associated cold front moves across New England later today and cyclogenesis occurs tonight near the ME coast. Moisture/buoyancy will be scant at best ahead of the cold front across southern New England, where some shallow/forced convection may occur along the cold front this afternoon. The convection could be associated with a few strong gusts, but the potential for convectively driven severe gusts appears too low to warrant introduction of an outlook area. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/20/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that blocking centered over the northeastern Pacific will break down this weekend, as a more progressive regime shifts across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, and gradually inland through much of the U.S. by the middle to latter portion of next week. Initially, flow downstream of the weakening blocking may undergo amplification, including mid-level troughing offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, and larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. Within the inland advancing troughing, there appears reasonable agreement between the ECENS/ECMWF, GEFS and GFS model output that a significant lead short wave perturbation will accelerate northeastward out of the Southwest across the southern Rockies late Sunday into Sunday night. As this occurs, a rather deep cyclone is forecast to continue to form to the lee of the Front Range during the day, before migrating southeastward then eastward into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return in the wake of prior low-level drying and cooling across the northern Gulf Basin may still be on the margins for vigorous thunderstorms, the development of steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may compensate. Coupled with potentially intense wind fields and strong forcing for ascent, organized severe thunderstorm development seems probable late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This may include supercells initially, then an evolving narrow squall line. Into the early through middle portion of next week, uncertainties concerning a subsequent short wave emerging from the Southwest increase. However, it appears probable that there will be at least narrow corridors of strong to severe thunderstorm development on following days across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley and perhaps parts of the Southeast. Read more