Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ..Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the western Atlantic through this period. Within one branch, consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night. This may be accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday. Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing, but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale impulses. One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday through Wednesday night. A trailing perturbation may accelerate through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday. There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface troughing across the southern Great Plains. And low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin. Better low-level moistening may remain confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. ...Texas Panhandle Vicinity... To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon. But it still appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity center. Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may only become modest, at best, this environment could still support strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening. ...Southern Texas... A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg. Considerable uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by late Wednesday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, strong deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the western Atlantic through this period. Within one branch, consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night. This may be accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday. Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing, but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale impulses. One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday through Wednesday night. A trailing perturbation may accelerate through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday. There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface troughing across the southern Great Plains. And low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin. Better low-level moistening may remain confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. ...Texas Panhandle Vicinity... To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon. But it still appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity center. Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may only become modest, at best, this environment could still support strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening. ...Southern Texas... A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg. Considerable uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by late Wednesday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, strong deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the western Atlantic through this period. Within one branch, consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night. This may be accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday. Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing, but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale impulses. One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday through Wednesday night. A trailing perturbation may accelerate through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday. There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface troughing across the southern Great Plains. And low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin. Better low-level moistening may remain confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. ...Texas Panhandle Vicinity... To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon. But it still appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity center. Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may only become modest, at best, this environment could still support strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening. ...Southern Texas... A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg. Considerable uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by late Wednesday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, strong deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the western Atlantic through this period. Within one branch, consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night. This may be accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday. Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing, but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale impulses. One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday through Wednesday night. A trailing perturbation may accelerate through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday. There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface troughing across the southern Great Plains. And low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin. Better low-level moistening may remain confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. ...Texas Panhandle Vicinity... To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon. But it still appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity center. Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may only become modest, at best, this environment could still support strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening. ...Southern Texas... A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg. Considerable uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by late Wednesday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, strong deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the western Atlantic through this period. Within one branch, consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night. This may be accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday. Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing, but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale impulses. One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday through Wednesday night. A trailing perturbation may accelerate through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday. There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface troughing across the southern Great Plains. And low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin. Better low-level moistening may remain confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. ...Texas Panhandle Vicinity... To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon. But it still appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity center. Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may only become modest, at best, this environment could still support strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening. ...Southern Texas... A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg. Considerable uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by late Wednesday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, strong deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to NM during the period. A mid-level ridge will extend northward from northern CA into the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward through the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners. Surface high pressure centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to NM during the period. A mid-level ridge will extend northward from northern CA into the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward through the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners. Surface high pressure centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to NM during the period. A mid-level ridge will extend northward from northern CA into the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward through the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners. Surface high pressure centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to NM during the period. A mid-level ridge will extend northward from northern CA into the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward through the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners. Surface high pressure centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to NM during the period. A mid-level ridge will extend northward from northern CA into the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward through the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners. Surface high pressure centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States tonight. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a potent large-scale trough over the East. A strong belt of subtropical upper-level flow extends from Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the FL Peninsula will continue to move south this evening into the overnight hours and reach the FL Straits late. A couple of lingering thunderstorms this evening over the central and southern portion of the FL Peninsula will continue to wane in coverage and intensity. Farther west, a stationary mid to upper-level low and steep lapse rates will promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, before diminishing late tonight. Elsewhere, surface high pressure centered over the south-central U.S. will lead to tranquil conditions. ..Smith.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States tonight. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a potent large-scale trough over the East. A strong belt of subtropical upper-level flow extends from Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the FL Peninsula will continue to move south this evening into the overnight hours and reach the FL Straits late. A couple of lingering thunderstorms this evening over the central and southern portion of the FL Peninsula will continue to wane in coverage and intensity. Farther west, a stationary mid to upper-level low and steep lapse rates will promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, before diminishing late tonight. Elsewhere, surface high pressure centered over the south-central U.S. will lead to tranquil conditions. ..Smith.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States tonight. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a potent large-scale trough over the East. A strong belt of subtropical upper-level flow extends from Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the FL Peninsula will continue to move south this evening into the overnight hours and reach the FL Straits late. A couple of lingering thunderstorms this evening over the central and southern portion of the FL Peninsula will continue to wane in coverage and intensity. Farther west, a stationary mid to upper-level low and steep lapse rates will promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, before diminishing late tonight. Elsewhere, surface high pressure centered over the south-central U.S. will lead to tranquil conditions. ..Smith.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States tonight. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a potent large-scale trough over the East. A strong belt of subtropical upper-level flow extends from Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. A cold front over the FL Peninsula will continue to move south this evening into the overnight hours and reach the FL Straits late. A couple of lingering thunderstorms this evening over the central and southern portion of the FL Peninsula will continue to wane in coverage and intensity. Farther west, a stationary mid to upper-level low and steep lapse rates will promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, before diminishing late tonight. Elsewhere, surface high pressure centered over the south-central U.S. will lead to tranquil conditions. ..Smith.. 03/19/2024 Read more