Severe Storms

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GPT TO 40 NNE GPT TO 20 NNW MOB. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC047-059-100940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GPT TO 40 NNE GPT TO 20 NNW MOB. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC047-059-100940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW GPT TO 40 NNE GPT TO 20 NNW MOB. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC047-059-100940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 227 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 100455Z - 101000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 227 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1155 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms over central Louisiana will track east-southeastward overnight across the watch area. Damaging winds will be possible with these storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west southwest of Mc Comb MS to 45 miles northeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 224...WW 225...WW 226... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129- 131-133-100940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-017-019-027-071-075-081-087-095-131-155-173-177-185-201- 205-253-261-275-277-287-315-321-100940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK CRISP DECATUR DOUGHERTY GRADY IRWIN LANIER LEE LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE SUMTER Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129- 131-133-100940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-017-019-027-071-075-081-087-095-131-155-173-177-185-201- 205-253-261-275-277-287-315-321-100940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK CRISP DECATUR DOUGHERTY GRADY IRWIN LANIER LEE LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE SUMTER Read more

MD 0744 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...226...227... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0744 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...Southern Alabama...Southwest Georgia...Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...226...227... Valid 100613Z - 100815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225, 226, 227 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage, hail and a brief tornado will be possible as an MCS moves southeastward across the central Gulf Coast region late tonight. New weather watch issuance will likely need to be considered as the MCS approaches the southeastern edge of the ongoing watches. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed MCS from south-central Alabama extending west-southwestward into southwest Mississippi. The MCS is located on the northern edge of a strongly unstable airmass centered over the central Gulf Coast. Across this airmass, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots which will be favorable for supercells and bowing line segments, in or ahead of the MCS. Wind damage will be likely along the more intense parts of the line. Also, the WSR-88D VWP in southeast Alabama has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. This should support an isolated tornado threat with supercells and with rotating cells embedded in the line. The threats should continue to move along the instability gradient, eventually affecting parts of far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. New weather watch issuance may be needed across this area late tonight. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30569021 30258888 30258739 30258563 30398479 30868437 31708435 32178474 32848613 32958675 32988756 32838804 32248841 31868926 31659055 31379104 31029106 30779088 30569021 Read more

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E MEI TO 30 NW AUO. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053-061-067- 069-085-087-099-101-109-113-129-131-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LOWNDES MACON MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC037-053-061-099-215-239-243-259-273-307-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY EARLY MUSCOGEE QUITMAN RANDOLPH STEWART TERRELL WEBSTER Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ASD TO 25 N ASD TO 20 SSW PIB TO 45 NNW MOB. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC103-100840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ST. TAMMANY MSC045-047-059-109-100840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE FLC033-091-113-100840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-100840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NORTH MOBILE BAY SOUTH MOBILE BAY Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE FLC033-091-113-100840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-100840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NORTH MOBILE BAY SOUTH MOBILE BAY Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE FLC033-091-113-100840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-100840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NORTH MOBILE BAY SOUTH MOBILE BAY Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE FLC033-091-113-100840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-100840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NORTH MOBILE BAY SOUTH MOBILE BAY Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE FLC033-091-113-100840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-100840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NORTH MOBILE BAY SOUTH MOBILE BAY Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE FLC033-091-113-100840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-100840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NORTH MOBILE BAY SOUTH MOBILE BAY Read more

WW 228 SEVERE TSTM AL FL CW 100655Z - 101200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning from 155 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Well-organized clusters of storms will continue to move east-southeastward into the region overnight, the most robust storms posing a severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Mobile AL to 10 miles south southeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...WW 226...WW 227... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more