Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0746 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...230... FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Georgia...Northern and Central Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...230... Valid 101217Z - 101445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229, 230 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat are expected with an MCS, as it moves east-southeastward across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat could impact parts of north-central Florida later this morning, and that area will continue to be monitored for additional watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed MCS over southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The MCS will continue to move east-southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast over the next couple of hours. Ahead of the MCS, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the Jacksonville, FL WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots suggesting that the large-scale bowing line segment may remain organized. Wind damage will be possible along the leading edge of the more intense line segments. The VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150 m2/s2 which appears sufficient for an isolated tornado threat with rotating cells embedded in the line. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31968198 31648274 30958334 30328364 29788354 29258329 28698281 28438224 28398165 28538118 28838100 29348096 30538125 31618116 31968198 Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY TO 15 SSW GNV TO 30 E GNV TO 20 S JAX TO 15 W SSI TO 30 N SSI TO 35 E SAV. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC019-031-035-083-089-107-109-101440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS GAC039-127-191-101440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN GLYNN MCINTOSH AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more