Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

MD 0750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0750 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110012Z - 110115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust could accompany any ongoing storms over the next few hours, and a waterspout cannot be ruled out along coastal areas. The severe risk should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is currently traversing the Big Bend area of northern FL amid a warm and moist low-level airmass. Surface temperatures in the low 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints yield over 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE on the cool side of a residual baroclinic boundary, where storm maturation could occur. Given the presence of 50+ kt effective bulk shear values (driven by elongated hodographs with modest low-level curvature), transient supercells may develop from the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms. Confidence in this scenario is modest at best. However, any storm that can mature in this environment could produce a damaging gust or two, and a waterspout could also form close to the coastline. The best chance for a gust or waterspout would be in the next few hours, before nocturnal cooling will support boundary layer stabilization and a decrease in thunderstorm potential. Since the severe threat should be sparse at best, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30168460 30068314 29558184 28968114 28448124 28108182 28008230 28138271 28688320 29358374 29718439 30168460 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue across the coastal Carolinas for another couple of hours this evening before moving offshore. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over north or central Florida this evening, posing a risk for gusty winds and hail. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been lowered and trimmed with 01z update to focus on isolated thunderstorms across the coastal Carolinas. These storms will move offshore over the next couple of hours, but may briefly produce gusty winds or marginal hail before doing so. A couple of storms may develop inland across northern/central Florida this evening/overnight. While potential appears low given weak low-level convergence, if a storm can develop and be sustained, 00z RAOBs from JAX and TBW indicate an environment capable of supporting strong gusts and hail. the Marginal risk will be maintained for this condition risk. The Marginal risk has been removed from the Upper Midwest where only weak convection has been ongoing this evening. With loss of daytime heating, any strong gust potential should further wane over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue across the coastal Carolinas for another couple of hours this evening before moving offshore. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over north or central Florida this evening, posing a risk for gusty winds and hail. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been lowered and trimmed with 01z update to focus on isolated thunderstorms across the coastal Carolinas. These storms will move offshore over the next couple of hours, but may briefly produce gusty winds or marginal hail before doing so. A couple of storms may develop inland across northern/central Florida this evening/overnight. While potential appears low given weak low-level convergence, if a storm can develop and be sustained, 00z RAOBs from JAX and TBW indicate an environment capable of supporting strong gusts and hail. the Marginal risk will be maintained for this condition risk. The Marginal risk has been removed from the Upper Midwest where only weak convection has been ongoing this evening. With loss of daytime heating, any strong gust potential should further wane over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue across the coastal Carolinas for another couple of hours this evening before moving offshore. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over north or central Florida this evening, posing a risk for gusty winds and hail. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been lowered and trimmed with 01z update to focus on isolated thunderstorms across the coastal Carolinas. These storms will move offshore over the next couple of hours, but may briefly produce gusty winds or marginal hail before doing so. A couple of storms may develop inland across northern/central Florida this evening/overnight. While potential appears low given weak low-level convergence, if a storm can develop and be sustained, 00z RAOBs from JAX and TBW indicate an environment capable of supporting strong gusts and hail. the Marginal risk will be maintained for this condition risk. The Marginal risk has been removed from the Upper Midwest where only weak convection has been ongoing this evening. With loss of daytime heating, any strong gust potential should further wane over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue across the coastal Carolinas for another couple of hours this evening before moving offshore. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over north or central Florida this evening, posing a risk for gusty winds and hail. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been lowered and trimmed with 01z update to focus on isolated thunderstorms across the coastal Carolinas. These storms will move offshore over the next couple of hours, but may briefly produce gusty winds or marginal hail before doing so. A couple of storms may develop inland across northern/central Florida this evening/overnight. While potential appears low given weak low-level convergence, if a storm can develop and be sustained, 00z RAOBs from JAX and TBW indicate an environment capable of supporting strong gusts and hail. the Marginal risk will be maintained for this condition risk. The Marginal risk has been removed from the Upper Midwest where only weak convection has been ongoing this evening. With loss of daytime heating, any strong gust potential should further wane over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E OGB TO 20 SSE FAY TO 30 S ECG. WW 231 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110100Z. ..DEAN..05/11/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...GSP...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-055-061-095-103-129-133-137-141-177- 110100- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL SCC043-051-089-110100- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGETOWN HORRY WILLIAMSBURG AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-231-250-252-254-256- 110100- Read more

WW 231 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 101750Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and eastern North Carolina Northern and northeastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of a weak cold front/surface trough, starting near the North Carolina/South Carolina border and then spreading eastward and southeastward through the evening. The storm environment will favor a mix of supercells and bowing segments capable of producing large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south of Charlotte NC to 30 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0749 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0749 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western and central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102332Z - 110030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A severe gust or two may accompany the stronger storms until around sunset. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped, high based thunderstorms have percolated in intensity behind the surface cold front over the past few hours, and these storms continue to move southeast atop a dry/mixed boundary layer. 23Z mesoanalysis shows 8.5+ C/km 0-3 km lapse rates preceding the storms, which may foster adequate evaporative cooling beneath the stronger storm cores to support a couple of damaging gusts until around sunset. However, since the severe risk is expected to be sparse, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46969257 45178984 43678921 42909002 42899091 43429206 44349330 45229410 45859432 46469414 46969257 Read more

MD 0749 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0749 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western and central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102332Z - 110030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A severe gust or two may accompany the stronger storms until around sunset. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped, high based thunderstorms have percolated in intensity behind the surface cold front over the past few hours, and these storms continue to move southeast atop a dry/mixed boundary layer. 23Z mesoanalysis shows 8.5+ C/km 0-3 km lapse rates preceding the storms, which may foster adequate evaporative cooling beneath the stronger storm cores to support a couple of damaging gusts until around sunset. However, since the severe risk is expected to be sparse, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46969257 45178984 43678921 42909002 42899091 43429206 44349330 45229410 45859432 46469414 46969257 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 10 23:27:04 UTC 2024.

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CAE TO 35 NE CAE TO 35 SSW SOP TO 30 ESE RWI TO 35 W ECG. ..DEAN..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...GSP...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-079-093-095-103-107-117- 129-133-137-141-147-155-163-165-177-187-191-110040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN GREENE HOKE HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE SCC017-025-027-031-033-041-043-051-055-061-063-067-069-079-085- 089-110040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON DARLINGTON DILLON FLORENCE Read more

WW 231 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 101750Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and eastern North Carolina Northern and northeastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of a weak cold front/surface trough, starting near the North Carolina/South Carolina border and then spreading eastward and southeastward through the evening. The storm environment will favor a mix of supercells and bowing segments capable of producing large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south of Charlotte NC to 30 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0748 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231... FOR PARTS OF SC INTO EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0748 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of SC into eastern NC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231... Valid 102148Z - 102315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for hail and damaging gusts will spread southeastward toward the coast into this evening. DISCUSSION...Numerous small cells (some exhibiting supercell characteristics) have produced scattered hail reports in the 1.0 - 1.75 inch diameter range through the afternoon, within an environment characterized by MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear. Any remaining discrete cells will be capable of producing hail of a similar size into this evening. There has been some tendency for gradually increasing outflow and clustering of storms, which could result in a somewhat greater threat for damaging wind, especially in areas from SC into southeast NC, where warmer temperatures and relatively greater instability remain in place. The primary severe threat should continue to spread toward the coast, though a couple stronger cells could trail the primary band of convection with an isolated severe threat into this evening. ..Dean.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34788124 34877893 35867712 36077606 36037549 35497535 34667609 33737785 33257870 33227918 33417998 33608065 33768123 33868143 34148166 34788124 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more