Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the critical area on the north and east fringes for the latest guidance. Widespread elevated, and a few hours of critical, fire-weather conditions appear likely Sunday. Please see the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the critical area on the north and east fringes for the latest guidance. Widespread elevated, and a few hours of critical, fire-weather conditions appear likely Sunday. Please see the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to the critical area on the north and east fringes for the latest guidance. Widespread elevated, and a few hours of critical, fire-weather conditions appear likely Sunday. Please see the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday), encouraging surface lee troughing across the southern High Plains as a low-level mass response. Across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas, surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times (with higher gusts) while RH drops to 10 percent for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. Critical highlights have been introduced where there is strong agreement among guidance members in these conditions occurring. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions may persist across the Florida Peninsula, but the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather highlights. Likewise, fire weather highlights have been withheld over portions of the northern Plains. Here widespread northerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph will be common, but with marginally supportive RH and fuels tempering the wildfire-spread threat to anything more than a localized threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more