Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress across the Baja Peninsula and much of northern Mexico on D4/Wednesday, continuing eastward across the southern High Plains and much of TX on D5/Thursday, and the Lower MS and TN Valleys, and much of the Southeast on D6/Friday. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible during each day of this sequence, beginning with the southern High Plains on D4/Wednesday. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern Plains, which will support airmass destabilization amid strong heating. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, and convective initiation will likely result from low-level convergence. Uncertainty regarding destabilization, limited coverage and low predictability preclude delineation any areas with this outlook on D4/Wednesday. Greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the southern Plains (particularly TX) on D5/Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins interacting with the moistening airmass over the region. Both vertical shear and buoyancy are expected to be sufficient for severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty regarding the evolution of preceding night's thunderstorms, as well as character and location of the warm sector, results in limited forecast confidence. Similar issues plague D6/Friday downstream from east/southeast TX across the Southeast, with even more uncertainty on how preceding precipitation evolves and its effect on the warm sector. After D6/Friday, guidance shows increasing variance, resulting in limited predictability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. ...Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast, with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary hazard. Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and some severe potential with any mature updrafts. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength. ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will progress toward the Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Monday), encouraging appreciable rainfall accumulations and/or moist low-level conditions across the south-central CONUS toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the surface cyclone, northwesterly low-level flow will transport relatively dry air southward across the northern Plains to the southern High Plains. However, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be on the lighter side, which should limit wildfire-spread potential to local scales. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more