Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...17z Update... Morning observations show precipitation and overnight humidity recoveries are more expansive than previously expected. The backdoor cold front over the southern High Plains may be slow to mix farther east due to ongoing cloud cover and weak upslope flow. This suggests afternoon humidity values should remain somewhat higher than forecast. As such, the Critical area has been shifted westward and shrunk to cover areas where drier and windier conditions are more likely. While confidence in more widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is not overly high, several hours of gusty winds and low RH are possible behind the dryline/modifying front over southern/eastern NM and far west TX within mostly dry fuels. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains today, encouraging surface lee troughing and accompanying dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas this afternoon. 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating, warranting the continuation of Elevated/Critical highlights. Fire weather highlights for Day 1 have been modified from Day 2 based on recent observed precipitation. Nonetheless, the ongoing severe to extreme drought suggests that fuels should at least be receptive enough to support notable wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/12/2024 Read more