Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to remain partially displaced across the southern third of the CONUS with an active subtropical jet through early next week. A mid-level ridge will slowly build over the western CONUS forcing flow aloft to trend northwesterly through midweek. Widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected over the central and eastern CONUS through the forecast period. This should keep fire-weather concerns limited, with a few exceptions. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... With cooler and wetter conditions likely to persist with northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week, fire-weather concerns appear limited. More sheltered parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, over southern NM and far west TX, may see occasional dry and breezy conditions. Some ensemble guidance suggests elevated to near-critical dry and breezy conditions will be possible D4-D6 Wed-Fri, though confidence in coverage and duration are low. Forecast uncertainty in the medium range is quite high owing to difference in the magnitude of the western US ridging. Greater fire-weather potential may evolve towards the end of the extended forecast period as stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to redevelop over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest into next weekend and week 2. ...Central/southern FL... Rapidly developing short-term drought is expected to worsen across portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula through mid week, possibly extending into next weekend. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase mid to late week as a dry cold front approaches. However, confidence on the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to remain partially displaced across the southern third of the CONUS with an active subtropical jet through early next week. A mid-level ridge will slowly build over the western CONUS forcing flow aloft to trend northwesterly through midweek. Widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected over the central and eastern CONUS through the forecast period. This should keep fire-weather concerns limited, with a few exceptions. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... With cooler and wetter conditions likely to persist with northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week, fire-weather concerns appear limited. More sheltered parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, over southern NM and far west TX, may see occasional dry and breezy conditions. Some ensemble guidance suggests elevated to near-critical dry and breezy conditions will be possible D4-D6 Wed-Fri, though confidence in coverage and duration are low. Forecast uncertainty in the medium range is quite high owing to difference in the magnitude of the western US ridging. Greater fire-weather potential may evolve towards the end of the extended forecast period as stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to redevelop over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest into next weekend and week 2. ...Central/southern FL... Rapidly developing short-term drought is expected to worsen across portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula through mid week, possibly extending into next weekend. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase mid to late week as a dry cold front approaches. However, confidence on the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to remain partially displaced across the southern third of the CONUS with an active subtropical jet through early next week. A mid-level ridge will slowly build over the western CONUS forcing flow aloft to trend northwesterly through midweek. Widespread cooler temperatures and precipitation are expected over the central and eastern CONUS through the forecast period. This should keep fire-weather concerns limited, with a few exceptions. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... With cooler and wetter conditions likely to persist with northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week, fire-weather concerns appear limited. More sheltered parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, over southern NM and far west TX, may see occasional dry and breezy conditions. Some ensemble guidance suggests elevated to near-critical dry and breezy conditions will be possible D4-D6 Wed-Fri, though confidence in coverage and duration are low. Forecast uncertainty in the medium range is quite high owing to difference in the magnitude of the western US ridging. Greater fire-weather potential may evolve towards the end of the extended forecast period as stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to redevelop over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest into next weekend and week 2. ...Central/southern FL... Rapidly developing short-term drought is expected to worsen across portions of the central and southern FL Peninsula through mid week, possibly extending into next weekend. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase mid to late week as a dry cold front approaches. However, confidence on the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0760 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0760 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121951Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed along the dryline as mid-level ascent has increased this afternoon. With low-level easterly flow and copious cloud cover ahead of this activity, a very narrow zone of modest buoyancy has developed. Shear is not particularly strong with northern extent, but does increase in the South Plains. The primary risk with these strong to marginally severe storms will be isolated large hail and severe gusts. Storms will likely weaken relatively quickly as they encounter the stable conditions to the east. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34440154 33860164 33240166 33080190 33100235 33080250 33380263 34000248 34970235 35090227 35990173 36460109 36320059 34440154 Read more

MD 0759 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 233... FOR FAR EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0759 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Areas affected...Far East Texas and Southwest Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 233... Valid 121904Z - 122100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 233 continues. SUMMARY...Large to hail to 2 inches will be possible with storms in WW 233. The tornado risk will focus along the Louisiana coast as a storm tracks along and just south of the warm front. DISCUSSION...Storms north of the warm front will continue to pose primarily a threat for large hail up to 2 inches as these storms will remain elevated. Farther south, a storm in far southwest Louisiana has produced 2 inch hail and a 49 kt wind gust in the Beaumont, TX vicinity. This storm, which appears to be along or just south of the warm front, will also pose the greatest risk for a tornado over the next 1-2 hours. This storm has shown varying degrees of low-level organization over the past hour. ..Wendt.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH... LAT...LON 29849403 30189418 30799429 31049408 31069400 31229316 31089267 30789232 29829205 29609206 29489204 29399290 29699366 29849403 Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-053-079-113-115-122140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS RAPIDES VERMILION VERNON TXC071-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373-407-457-473-122140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMBERS HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WALLER GMZ430-432-122140- CW Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-053-079-113-115-122140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS RAPIDES VERMILION VERNON TXC071-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373-407-457-473-122140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMBERS HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WALLER GMZ430-432-122140- CW Read more

MD 0758 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0758 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern Colorado...western Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121832Z - 122030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Landspouts along with marginally severe hail/wind gusts are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is developing in the Raton Mesa vicinity. As surface temperatures continue to rise, low-level buoyancy will maximize within the next few hours. The vertically stacked surface/upper-level lows will provide ambient vorticity. A few landspouts will be possible as storms develop through the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates through the troposphere will also promote some risk for marginally severe hail and wind gusts. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 36680250 37540267 38910231 39560197 39610142 39080095 37050105 36580150 36500188 36680250 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHWEST MS...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST WI/SOUTHERN U.P. OF MI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated very large hail will be possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible this evening across northeast Wisconsin and the southern Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20z Update... No changes were needed at 20z to the existing outlook. ...East TX/LA/MS... Scattered severe thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and south of the warm front into eastern Texas and Louisiana, with hail reports up to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop through the late afternoon/evening with further severe potential continuing late into the period. See MCD#759 for more information. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... Air mass recovery has been slow across the region near the Edwards Plateau in Texas with persistent mid-level cloud cover limiting daytime heating. CAM solutions are spread on potential for a supercell or two to develop through the evening. RAP forecast soundings indicate a conditional threat for very large hail and a tornado, given strong deep layer shear and elongated hodographs with increasing mid-level flow. Given the conditional potential for large hail, the Slight Risk was maintained with this outlook. A Slight Risk continues across WI/MI this afternoon through the evening. High-based storms with damaging wind and hail will be possible. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/ ...East TX/LA/MS through early Monday morning... A midlevel trough will move slowly eastward from CO/NM to KS/OK/northwest TX through tonight, with only a weak surface reflection of the midlevel trough across OK/KS. Farther south, a warm front will make slow progress northward into southeast TX and southern LA, though the position of the surface front will be modulated by the effects of ongoing/slightly elevated convection moving toward east TX. This early convection will pose a continued threat for occasional large hail and damaging outflow gusts into early afternoon. By mid afternoon and through late evening, the potential for near-surface-based storms will increase along the warm front in southeast TX/southwest LA where low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for supercells with a few tornadoes. There is some potential for a larger storm cluster to evolve from the warm frontal storms by this evening, and storms could persist through the overnight/early morning hours as far east as MS. ...Edwards Plateau in TX this afternoon/evening... A couple of supercells will be possible later this afternoon/evening near the front/dryline triple point roughly in the vicinity of San Angelo. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse rates and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) as the main threat for a few hours into this evening. ...WI/MI this afternoon through early tonight... The southeast fringe of the midlevel height falls and a surface cold front will help focus thunderstorm development after about 21z, and storms will spread southeastward through late evening/early overnight. Afternoon surface temperatures of 75-80 F and dewpoints of 45-52 F in WI will drive steep low-level lapse rates and SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which combined with modest deep-layer shear will support the potential for high-based storms capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The convection will likely become elevated over Lower MI by late evening/early tonight with some continued potential for isolated large hail. ...Extreme southwest KS/southeast CO/OK Panhandle this afternoon... Cloud breaks will allow surface heating and steepening low-level lapse rates in the vicinity of a weak surface cyclone across extreme southeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be weak close to the midlevel trough, but sufficient buoyancy/minimal inhibition and a vertical vorticity source will support the potential for a few landspouts mid-late afternoon. Read more