Severe Storms

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0231 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0231 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri May 10 17:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more