Severe Storms

WW 225 SEVERE TSTM LA MS TX 100115Z - 100800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Louisiana Central Mississippi Southeast Texas * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 815 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over East Texas and northern Louisiana will develop eastward through the evening across the watch area, large hail is possible early, with an increasing risk of damaging winds as storms organize into lines. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Fort Polk LA to 25 miles northeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 221...WW 222...WW 223...WW 224... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-013-021-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053- 061-063-065-067-069-085-087-091-099-101-105-109-113-119-129-131- 100740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA GREENE HALE HENRY HOUSTON LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC037-053-061-099-215-239-243-259-273-307-100740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY Read more

WW 0227 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 227 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-100740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-100740- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER PIKE WALTHALL WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level moisture across the southern High Plains. A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger, convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores. ...Southern High Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region, within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass destabilization amid filtered daytime heating. Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low, although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general, coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 Read more