Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Rockies into Mid-Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist across much of the central and southern CONUS on Monday. As this ridge amplifies into the Northwest, stronger mid-level winds will develop in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low will modestly deepen and become more well-defined in the central Plains. The intensification of the upper trough will help to push a modest surface cold front southward into Tuesday morning. A pseudo warm front will be attendant to the low and extend southeastward through southern Minnesota into northern Illinois. A very moist airmass will be in place south of this boundary. Farther west, modest low-level moisture will be pushed into the Northern Rockies. A zone of stronger mid-level winds will stretch from the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies. Convection is likely over the terrain. ...South Dakota into the Upper Midwest... Convective development during the afternoon will be possible from the Black Hills and eastward where the surface low will intersect the cold front. Given continued warm temperatures aloft and uncertain mid-level forcing, it is not clear where the favored corridor for development will be. The stronger surface low and modest westerlies aloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear near the boundary. Once again, strong to extreme buoyancy is possible. Given the temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface and the boundary-parallel shear, upscale growth would likely be quick. An MCS could then develop and progress along the boundary. By the evening, the cold front should begin to move south and a modest low-level jet will increase, directed into the boundary. Greater coverage of storms would then be possible where MLCIN remains weak. This is another scenario where higher wind probabilities may eventually be needed as uncertainty decreases. ...Montana... Though moisture will be somewhat modest (perhaps dewpoints in the 50s F), it should be sufficient at this elevation for storm development over the terrain. Low-level easterlies and modest westerlies aloft will similarly bring 40-50 kts of effective shear. Lack of greater moisture will likely limit how intense storms will be, but a cluster or two could produce severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

MD 1789 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...eastern ND and far northwest MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 260649Z - 260815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A swath of strong to severe gusts may occur across a portion of eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota before dawn. With the threat area likely to be confined, a watch is not currently planned. But it could be considered if greater intensification/organization becomes evident. DISCUSSION...A small cluster from Eddy to Stutsman Counties in east-central ND may be maintained to the east-northeast towards a portion of the Red River Valley before dawn. This cluster has evolved into a more north/south-orientation with recent convective development along its southern flank. This is nearly perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vector and enhanced 2-7 km AGL westerlies sampled in recent BIS VWP data. NDAWN observations confirm a 10-13 F temperature gradient within the small cold pool and unperturbed warm sector ahead of the outflow. This setup may yield a swath of strong to severe gusts in a focused corridor over the next 2-3 hours. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48349676 47999645 47569630 47219653 47059736 46979885 47269910 47809905 48139794 48349676 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more