Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will overspread much of the western U.S. while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies today. Multiple embedded mid-level impulses will traverse the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies during the afternoon, encouraging dry and breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region, as well as thunderstorm development into the Pacific Northwest. By afternoon peak heating, southwesterly sustained surface winds will reach 15-25 mph as RH dips to 10-20 percent across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners. Elevated highlights have been maintained given the presence of dry fuels. Farther to the northwest, from Northeast California to the Idaho/Montana border, adequate mid-level moisture and deep-layer ascent will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms will produce a mix of wet and dry strikes atop receptive fuels, warranting the continuation of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi Valley as well as across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England region. ...Dakotas into Upper Midwest... Forecast uncertainty remains high across these areas. Convection within the Dakotas late Saturday is generally expected to progress into portions of early Sunday morning. The timing and intensify of this early convection is not clear, but will be one of key factors for what occurs in the afternoon. Current guidance would suggest this activity will most likely move through northern parts of Minnesota. Depending on the timing, enough destabilization could occur ahead of it and lead to an increased threat for severe winds into Arrowhead. To the west/south of this activity, a weak surface front/surface trough will likely intersect with outflow from morning activity. This is more likely to be positioned from eastern parts of the Dakotas into central Minnesota. Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop south of the outflow (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). The broader region will have 40-50 kts of effective shear. Convergence at the surface will be weak and temperatures aloft will be warm enough that capping will be a concern. Any lift from a mid-level perturbation has been rather variable in terms of strength and timing within guidance. While the environment will certainly be favorable for more than just a marginal threat of severe gusts, the above factors greatly limit confidence in highlighting the corridor of greatest risk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A small-scale shortwave trough is expected to move through these regions in the morning. Cloud cover and precipitation appears probable and will have impacts on where the greatest surface heating and destabilization can occur by the afternoon. Portions of southern New England appear most likely to struggle to destabilize, though shear would be sufficient for strong to marginally severe storms. In the Mid-Atlantic, surface heating is more likely and storms will be able to develop within the Blue Ridge and move southeastward. Some clustering may occur given around 20 kts of effective shear. Temperatures in the 90s F and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities are possible if confidence increases in where clustering will occur. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper-level cyclone over the southeast U.S. will move little on Saturday, as a broad upper-level trough persists along the West Coast. A modest belt of stronger mid-level westerlies will extend across the northern CONUS. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend east-west across the northern Ohio Valley and southeast across the mid-Atlantic. ...MT east across the northern/central Plains... Embedded impulses within the western U.S. upper trough, most notably now moving northeast across UT, will pivot east across MT and the northern Plains during the day Saturday. Storms may be in progress Saturday morning, with additional development along a surface trough across western SD southward into the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads the area. Storms over western SD should evolve upscale over time while moving east/northeast, with an increasing risk for damaging winds, especially across the Slight Risk area, where strong instability with eastward extent (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg across) will be in place. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell potential with any semi-discrete storm that develops, with an attendant risk for large hail. More isolated storms that develop along the surface trough across western NE/northeast CO will also have the potential for strong/severe gusts within a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer. Isolated stronger storms will also be possible across MT, where weak instability and steep low-level lapse rates will promote some potential for strong/severe gusts. ...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region... A moist air mass (low-mid 70s surface dew points) will remain in place south of the quasi-stationary front during the day. Morning storms will likely be ongoing at 12z Saturday over northern portions of MO/IL/IN, with some diurnal uptick in coverage/intensity during the afternoon as a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moves east across this area. Twenty to 30 kts of deep-layer shear will result in organized updrafts with a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps hail during the afternoon. Isolated storms will also be possible across the mid-Atlantic, where moderate/strong mixed-layer instability and modest west-northwest mid-level flow will support the potential for strong gusts. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 07/26/2025 Read more

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BIS TO 30 W MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788. ..GRAMS..07/26/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC009-015-029-043-049-055-069-075-083-101-103-260640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN PIERCE RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BIS TO 30 W MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788. ..GRAMS..07/26/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC009-015-029-043-049-055-069-075-083-101-103-260640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN PIERCE RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1788 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543... FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Areas affected...Central into northeast ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543... Valid 260424Z - 260600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543 continues. SUMMARY...At least an isolated threat for severe wind and hail may continue overnight. DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster that earlier weakened across southwest ND has recently intensified west of Bismarck. A strengthening low-level jet observed on recent VWPs from KBIS may be aiding the recent intensification of both the eastward-moving storm cluster, and an area of midlevel convection that has recently deepened north of Bismarck. Ongoing storms remain relatively disorganized with a tendency for outflow to undercut convection, but steep midlevel lapse rates and large MUCAPE (2500 J/kg or greater) will continue to support some potential for hail with the strongest cores, along with strong to severe gust potential, especially with the cluster approaching Bismarck. Farther north, an earlier intense storm cluster has mostly dissipated across northwest ND, but some recent intensification of new updrafts has been noted east of Minot, just behind the remnant eastward-moving outflow. Very strong buoyancy (MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) remains in place into northeast ND. Given the favorable MUCAPE and midlevel lapse rates, an uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible into the overnight hours. With CINH increasing and deep-layer shear expected to remain rather modest, potential for longer-lived cells and/or organized upscale growth remains uncertain. The potential for any downstream watch issuance will depend on short-term trends regarding storm coverage and organization. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46950205 47240179 47620092 48930031 49149892 49119802 48709755 47819838 46589956 46080087 45970174 46950205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 543 SEVERE TSTM ND 260035Z - 260700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central North Dakota * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 735 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight within the very unstable airmass in place across western and central ND. Large to very large hail is possible with the more cellular, early-stage thunderstorms. Upscale growth into a more linear convective system is possible, with the primary hazard transitioning to strong wind gusts if this line materializes. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northeast of Bismarck ND to 60 miles west northwest of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 542... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more