Severe Storms

MD 1792 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1792 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262048Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity across the high terrain will move eastward into the evening with potential for damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been steadily developing across the high terrain in Colorado/Wyoming over the last couple of hours. Dew points in these regions are low in the mid 40s, with better moisture located across Nebraska into southern South Dakota. CAM guidance suggests that activity will develop along eastward moving outflow by late afternoon/evening. Downstream, temperatures have warmed into the upper 90s to 100s, with dew point spreads around 40-50 degrees. Though deep layer shear remains weak, large dew point spreads and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote some damaging wind potential. In addition, the low level jet is progged to increase through the evening with the deepening of a surface low across South Dakota. While watch issuance is not anticipated, trends in this area will be monitored. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40260402 41080408 41840406 42470402 43020290 43000219 42740161 41530106 40210064 39650105 39350162 39430319 40260402 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 26 20:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region, and across the central High Plains and much of Montana. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. The Marginal risk was expanded slightly eastward in northern MN, where an ongoing cluster of storms (preceding a remnant MCV) may pose a risk of strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe risks in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reference MCDs 1790/1791. ..Weinman.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Northern Plains... Ahead of an upper low over northern California/western Nevada, midday water vapor imagery reflects a lead shortwave trough moving northeastward over northern Utah/eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. In this regime, forcing for ascent and gradual cooling aloft will occur through late today over northern Wyoming and southern/eastern Montana. Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon. This will initially occur across southern Montana and toward the Big Horns/northeast Wyoming. Additional high-based storm development is expected near the surface low and southward-extending surface trough into the central High Plains. Storms that move into the western Dakotas will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized severe winds, aside from some continued hail potential. As least some late-night severe risk will probably persist across North Dakota/eastern South Dakota into Minnesota. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva... Multiple clusters of have persisted and/or reinvigorated early today in a corridor spanning north-central Illinois/northern Indiana, as well as central Pennsylvania. Moist/humid conditions will exist south of the convectively reinforced boundary and away from areas of persistent cloud debris (such as northward into Lower Michigan), with a reservoir of ample buoyancy contributing to a diurnal intensification of storms as multiple convectively enhanced mid-level disturbances interface with the effective front and nearby warm sector. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging winds, and a somewhat more favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms/wind damage appears to exist across the Mid-Atlantic States including south/southeast parts of Pennsylvania toward the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay. Read more

MD 1791 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1791 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...far eastern Missouri...central Illinois...far western Indiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261821Z - 262015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois and western Indiana is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon near multiple remnant MCVs and remnant outflow. Pockets of enhanced flow/modest shear along with daytime heating has allowed for the air mass to become favorable unstable and supportive of at least an isolated risk for a stronger storm or two capable of strong to severe wind. Given the generally weak forcing and modest shear for organization, this threat is likely to remain too localized for watch issuance. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 39409207 40029144 40599049 40968924 41098823 41168706 40458663 39978711 38339061 38519193 39409207 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...south-central Pennsylvania...much of Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261751Z - 262015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind gusts are forecast to develop through the afternoon, from southern Pennsylvania into Maryland. Expected severe coverage may not necessitate the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Storms are already developing over south-central PA, along the southern periphery of a weak MCV. Morning soundings and other sensors indicate PWAT values near 2.00", with relatively poor lapse rates aloft. However, the air mass ahead of the ongoing activity and southward into MD/VA continues to heat strongly, and this will both increase instability through the afternoon, and steepen low-level lapse rates. With time, ongoing activity over southern PA may effectively link with incipient development over the higher terrain of eastern WV/northern VA, with storms moving east/southeast across MD and northern VA. Tall moist profiles combined with modest northwest flow aloft around the upper high and increasing DCAPE over 1000 J/kg will favor a localized areas of strong to perhaps severe gusts. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38497666 38897800 39177835 39627830 40117802 40477758 40427689 40257624 40037585 39887578 39617575 39077569 38827573 38597584 38447608 38417628 38497666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Afternoon Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain likely from portions of northern CA and southern OR into the northern Rockies. While storm coverage should be scattered, inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings) show at least some lightning potential outside of the heavier wetting rain cores. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area for the latest guidance. ...Eastern Great Basin... On the western periphery of the upper ridge, slight enhancement of southwesterly flow loft will persist over eastern UT and parts of WY/CO. Deep mixing of the boundary layer will promote breezy afternoon surface winds of 15-20 mph. Low humidity of 15-20% will also be colocated with the stronger wind gusts. This could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Sunday. ..Lyons.. 07/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will persist along the West Coast as the upper ridge continues to build over the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Sunday). Mid-level moisture along the upper trough will overspread a dry boundary layer, characterized by inverted-v profiles (based on forecast soundings). As such, a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies. Given dry fuels over the region and associated potential for lightning induced ignitions, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more