Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TRANS PECOS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 23 16:40:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 Read more