Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0913 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 292... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN ME
Mesoscale Discussion 0913 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern ME Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 292... Valid 231929Z - 232100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 292 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and damaging wind will spread eastward through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms is ongoing from southern into northeast Maine this afternoon. The immediate downstream environment remains somewhat favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg and modestly favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 17Z/18Z CAR/GYX modified soundings and regional VWPs), and some threat for hail and damaging wind will continue into late afternoon. With cooler onshore flow noted over the Downeast Maine vicinity, some weakening will be possible with time as storms move into this region. However, sufficient elevated buoyancy may still support some threat for isolated marginal hail and/or a strong/damaging gust before storms move offshore. Isolated storm redevelopment also remains possible into southern ME behind the outflow, though at this time any severe threat with this redevelopment is currently expected to remain marginal and isolated. ..Dean.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 44466996 45846876 47016855 47236857 47266808 46866769 45846764 44756782 44256824 43856895 43756954 43796993 43927026 44177063 44466996 Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-171-183-232140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS WHEELER NDC021-029-045-047-051-073-077-081-232140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY EMMONS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-171-183-232140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS WHEELER NDC021-029-045-047-051-073-077-081-232140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY EMMONS LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061- 065-067-073-079-087-095-097-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137- 147-151-155-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-189-193-197-199-203-207- 209-213-215-217-227-229-231-235-237-239-232140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARLAN HARRISON HART JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LARUE LAUREL LEE LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SCOTT Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BHB TO 25 W HUL TO 25 NNE CAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC003-009-019-029-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AROOSTOOK HANCOCK PENOBSCOT WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BHB TO 25 W HUL TO 25 NNE CAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC003-009-019-029-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AROOSTOOK HANCOCK PENOBSCOT WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BHB TO 25 W HUL TO 25 NNE CAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC003-009-019-029-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AROOSTOOK HANCOCK PENOBSCOT WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BHB TO 25 W HUL TO 25 NNE CAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC003-009-019-029-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AROOSTOOK HANCOCK PENOBSCOT WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BHB TO 25 W HUL TO 25 NNE CAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC003-009-019-029-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AROOSTOOK HANCOCK PENOBSCOT WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0292 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BHB TO 25 W HUL TO 25 NNE CAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913 ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC003-009-019-029-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AROOSTOOK HANCOCK PENOBSCOT WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 292 SEVERE TSTM ME 231650Z - 232300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Maine * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying across western Maine, and should spread across the region through the afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Caribou ME to 25 miles east of Augusta ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0912 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHWEST KS...EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WESTERN OK...TX BIG COUNTRY...SOUTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0912 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Far Southwest KS...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles...Western OK...TX Big Country...Southwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231922Z - 232015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along the dryline from southwest Kansas into southwest Texas. Supercells capable of very large hail up to 2 to 3" and strong gusts are possible. One or more watches will likely be needed across portions of the area to address this severe potential. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a dryline from far southwestern KS southward through the eastern TX and OK Panhandles, TX Big County, and southwest TX. Visible satellite imagery shows some building cumulus in the vicinity of this dryline, with the most notable clusters currently in the eastern OK, the northeast TX Panhandle, and in southwest TX (about 20-30 miles east of BGS). Airmass to the east of this dryline is very warm and moist, with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s across southwest TX to the low 60s across eastern OK Panhandle and far southwest KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates exist atop these surface conditions, supporting very strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates around 3000 J/kg along much of the dryline, with lower values in the eastern OK Panhandle and southwest KS. Stronger low-level convergence exists from southwest KS into the southeast TX Panhandle, with a low-amplitude shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery approaching this region as well. Less low-level convergence is anticipated farther south, but the airmass is also more moist, with lower convective inhibition and less influence from dry-air entrainment. These factors are expected to support widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm initiation along the dryline with in the next hour or so. Supercells capable of very large hail up to 2 to 3" will likely be the primary risk, but strong gusts are possible as well. The tornado threat will likely be limited by weak low-level shear, although not zero given the expected supercellular mode. One or more watches will likely be needed across portions of the area to address this severe potential. ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 31790126 32680118 34730085 35880074 37140103 36869944 32769972 31860031 31790126 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...OVER PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND EASTERN MAINE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of particularly damaging winds is forecast from Nebraska into western Iowa this evening into tonight. ...NE into IA... Severe probabilities for wind have been nudged eastward into more of IA to account for an MCS accelerating a bit faster than shown by the models. ...Western OK and TX... A narrow north-south zone of hail potential exists near a dryline, however, confidence is not high regarding how many storms will occur. As such, will maintain overall Slight Risk with 15% SIG hail probabilities. For specific information on this regime, see mesoscale discussion 912. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024/ ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn't sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Read more