Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

MD 0915 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 295... FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Western and Northern Nebraska...Central and Eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295... Valid 232254Z - 240100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected to continue for several more hours from western and northern Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota. An isolated tornado threat may continue across parts of southwest Nebraska. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 997 mb low over central South Dakota with a cold front extending southward from western South Dakota into western Nebraska. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of the front. To the east of this line, surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F, and the RAP is analyzing a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings from North Platte northeastward into southern South Dakota generally have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat, with isolated large hail and wind damage possible. The wind damage threat will be the greatest along the most intense parts of the line. A potential for supercells will exist near the southern end of the line, to the west of North Platte. In this vicinity, LCL heights are a bit lower and surface dewpoints are near 60 F. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete this evening. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU... LAT...LON 42080215 41640252 41260251 41030238 40850200 40820160 40930102 41140077 41410055 42000009 43679862 44479810 44929794 45269795 45419823 45379895 44929935 44369979 43350065 42080215 Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW IML TO 45 SSW PIR TO 10 SE PIR TO 15 ENE PIR. ..BROYLES..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-063-071-075-085-089-091-101-103- 111-113-115-117-135-149-171-183-240140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS WHEELER NDC001-021-029-037-041-045-047-051-073-077-081-085-240140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DICKEY EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918 ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-039-055-057-065-075-129-141-149-240140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM CUSTER GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-049-059-075-081-083-095-101-151-155-197-207-253-269-275- 307-319-327-353-399-411-413-417-433-441-447-451-487-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CHILDRESS COKE COLEMAN CONCHO COTTLE FISHER FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL JONES KING KNOX MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STONEWALL Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 296 TORNADO TX 232255Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 555 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two will pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph for the next few hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Temple TX to 125 miles east northeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CSV TO 30 N CSV TO 20 SSE LEX TO 35 NE JKL. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-065-095-109-121-125-129-131-147-165-189-193-197- 199-203-231-235-237-240040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY ESTILL HARLAN JACKSON KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE MCCREARY MENIFEE OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE TNC001-013-025-049-057-067-093-105-129-145-151-173-240040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE FENTRESS GRAINGER HANCOCK KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT UNION Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CSV TO 30 N CSV TO 20 SSE LEX TO 35 NE JKL. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-065-095-109-121-125-129-131-147-165-189-193-197- 199-203-231-235-237-240040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY ESTILL HARLAN JACKSON KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE MCCREARY MENIFEE OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE TNC001-013-025-049-057-067-093-105-129-145-151-173-240040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE FENTRESS GRAINGER HANCOCK KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT UNION Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CSV TO 30 N CSV TO 20 SSE LEX TO 35 NE JKL. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-065-095-109-121-125-129-131-147-165-189-193-197- 199-203-231-235-237-240040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY ESTILL HARLAN JACKSON KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE MCCREARY MENIFEE OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE TNC001-013-025-049-057-067-093-105-129-145-151-173-240040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE FENTRESS GRAINGER HANCOCK KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT UNION Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CSV TO 30 N CSV TO 20 SSE LEX TO 35 NE JKL. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-065-095-109-121-125-129-131-147-165-189-193-197- 199-203-231-235-237-240040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY ESTILL HARLAN JACKSON KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE MCCREARY MENIFEE OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE TNC001-013-025-049-057-067-093-105-129-145-151-173-240040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE FENTRESS GRAINGER HANCOCK KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT UNION Read more

MD 0916 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 295... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0916 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western/southwestern Oklahoma...western north Texas...the western Low Rolling Plains...and the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Tornado Watch 295... Valid 232300Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 295 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete supercells, moving east off a dryline, from southwestern OK through the Edwards Plateau of TX remain capable of producing very large hail over 2.00" in diameter, damaging wind gusts over 70 mph, and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells have developed early this evening along a dryline, and should maintain their intensity over the next several hours. These thunderstorms have developed in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates ranging from 7 to 8 C/km south to north respectively. Surface temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s along with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are yielding a narrow axis of extreme buoyancy just ahead of the dryline. Further east, a more stable troposphere is noted via visible satellite imagery behind several outflow boundaries and convective debris. Ambient 0-1 km SRH can be estimated via SJT VAD and current mesoanalysis to be near 100-200 m2/s2. A corridor of stronger SSE surface flow juxtaposed with the instability axis, a slow increase in the LLJ through the evening, and enhanced backing near the dryline circulation across SW OK may lead to locally enhanced low level shear/a more favorable tornadic environment. In addition, very large CAPE through the hail growth zone (OUN 20Z observed sounding) and effective shear > 50 kt will continue to support very large hail. Localized severe damaging wind gusts will also remain possible ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 31560032 32920032 34770013 35619988 35799897 35529873 34619885 33489904 32249915 31609887 31159859 30999870 30949885 30689918 30719961 30840012 31120031 31560032 Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CSV TO 30 N CSV TO 20 SSE LEX TO 35 NE JKL. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-065-095-109-121-125-129-131-147-165-189-193-197- 199-203-231-235-237-240040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY ESTILL HARLAN JACKSON KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE MCCREARY MENIFEE OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE TNC001-013-025-049-057-067-093-105-129-145-151-173-240040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE FENTRESS GRAINGER HANCOCK KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT UNION Read more

WW 293 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA 231745Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky Middle and East Tennessee Extreme Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing across parts of central Kentucky and middle Tennessee. These storms will spread eastward across the watch area, with an occasional risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Nashville TN to 5 miles east southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more