Severe Storms

WW 294 SEVERE TSTM ND NE SD 232025Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast North Dakota Central Nebraska Central and Eastern South Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon across the watch area. Very large hail and damaging winds will be possible in the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Aberdeen SD to 40 miles southwest of North Platte NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 296 TORNADO TX 232255Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 555 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two will pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes, isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph for the next few hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Temple TX to 125 miles east northeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CSV TO 30 N CSV TO 20 SSE LEX TO 35 NE JKL. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-065-095-109-121-125-129-131-147-165-189-193-197- 199-203-231-235-237-240040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY ESTILL HARLAN JACKSON KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE MCCREARY MENIFEE OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE TNC001-013-025-049-057-067-093-105-129-145-151-173-240040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE FENTRESS GRAINGER HANCOCK KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT UNION Read more

WW 293 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA 231745Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky Middle and East Tennessee Extreme Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing across parts of central Kentucky and middle Tennessee. These storms will spread eastward across the watch area, with an occasional risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Nashville TN to 5 miles east southeast of Jackson KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0296 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 23 22:39:07 UTC 2024.

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-039-055-057-065-075-129-141-149-232340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM CUSTER GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-049-059-075-081-083-087-095-101-151-155-197-207-253-269- 275-307-319-327-353-399-411-413-417-433-441-447-451-483-487- 232340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CHILDRESS COKE COLEMAN COLLINGSWORTH CONCHO COTTLE FISHER FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL JONES KING KNOX MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-049-063-069-071-075-085-089-091- 101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-171-183-232340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS WHEELER NDC001-021-029-037-041-045-047-051-073-077-081-085-232340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DICKEY EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CHA TO 55 NNW CSV TO 15 NNW BWG. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-005-009-011-013-017-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061-065- 067-073-079-087-095-097-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137-147- 151-155-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-189-193-197-199-203-207-209- 215-217-229-231-235-237-239-232340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARLAN HARRISON HART JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LARUE LAUREL LEE LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SCOTT SPENCER TAYLOR WASHINGTON WAYNE Read more

WW 0293 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HSV TO 40 NW CSV TO 40 ESE BWG TO 25 WNW BWG. ..DEAN..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 293 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-061- 065-067-073-079-087-095-097-099-109-113-121-123-125-129-131-137- 147-151-155-165-167-169-171-173-179-181-189-193-197-199-203-207- 209-215-217-227-229-231-235-237-239-232240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARLAN HARRISON HART JACKSON JESSAMINE KNOX LARUE LAUREL LEE LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY MADISON MARION MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL SCOTT SPENCER TAYLOR WARREN Read more

MD 0914 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0914 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Western Nebraska into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 231953Z - 232200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon for parts of western Nebraska into central South Dakota. Very-large hail will be possible with initial supercells before a transition to a more linear mode. Severe wind gusts will then become the dominant threat. DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to increase along a surface trough/cold front in western Nebraska and south-central South Dakota. With the approach of the shortwave trough now in western/central Wyoming, these trends should continue. Moisture continues to increase ahead of the boundary, particularly into western Nebraska, where a corridor of upper 50s F dewpoints are noted farther southeast in surface observations. Objective mesoanalysis shows decreasing MLCIN. Initiation of storms seems probable in the next 1-3 hours. Storms will initially be supercells capable of very large hail. Upscale growth may occur relatively quickly given the linear forcing and larger T/Td spreads at the surface. Severe wind gusts will become increasing likely as this transition occurs. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 40680140 40710163 41450239 41870234 43410129 44180067 44759946 44459861 43219907 41060102 40680140 Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0295 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0911 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293... FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0911 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Middle/Eastern Tennessee into central/eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293... Valid 231916Z - 232115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage and isolated large hail remains possible this afternoon. Storm coverage should increase into more central/eastern Kentucky over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop ahead of a weak MCV in the Mid-South. Destabilization continues into eastern Kentucky where temperatures have risen to near 80 F. A cluster of storms west of Bowling Green will pose a more organized threat of wind damage, particularly as buoyancy increases ahead of this activity. Isolated large hail is possible in the most intense, discrete storms. ..Wendt.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... LAT...LON 35938574 36638671 36988702 37298700 37498695 37718621 37878560 37988452 38278370 38188343 37538249 36978318 35848507 35938574 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more