Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the Great Plains this afternoon into tonight, where a few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are probable. The most likely concentration of severe winds is expected across a portion of the central Great Plains this evening into tonight. Some of these should be significant from 75-85 mph. ...Central to northern Great Plains... The most synoptically evident region for severe storms is expected downstream of a shortwave trough ejecting from the Northwest into the northern Great Plains through 12Z Friday. A lee cyclone initially between the Bighorns and Black Hills will track east-northeast towards the Upper Red River Valley. A dryline/lee trough will initially emerge eastward, before being progressively overtaken from north to south by an accelerating cold front, especially this evening into tonight. With 60+ F surface dew points currently confined to the Ozarks and the Upper Red River of the South, boundary-layer moisture quality will be limited and spatially confined through this afternoon. Nevertheless, pronounced surface heating, coupled with the favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, will favor scattered thunderstorms near the surface cyclone and adjacent warm front. Additional storms will develop south along the surface trough/cold front. Deep-layer shear will support several high-based supercells. Significant severe hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary early threat. During the evening, most CAM guidance depicts upscale growth in the central to eastern NE vicinity. This should be favored by a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the increasingly convergent cold front, and earlier supercells impinging on the more buoyant air mass and broadening warm-moist sector advecting north. An east-southeast moving QLCS with embedded bows may emerge towards the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. This should yield potential for both significant severe wind and brief tornadoes. Guidance spread increases substantially with how long a severe MCS should persist overnight. ...Southern Great Plains... Outside of the dryline, large-scale ascent appears nebulous today. Isolated to scattered morning convection may persist/redevelop to the north of remnant outflow from central TX through the Mid-South. Greater differential heating across this corridor may provide a focus for sporadic thunderstorms downstream of the dryline. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies should persist across north to central TX through the afternoon. Large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg should become common across OK through central TX ahead of the dryline. Have maintained level 2-SLGT risk where either residual outflow and dryline storms capable of all hazards appear possible. ...TN Valley to the coastal New England/Mid-Atlantic States... A broad swath of the eastern CONUS will have at least isolated potential for strong to locally severe storms. Much of this area will be characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer, but weak low-level shear. Convective enhancements will likely be tied to upstream MCVs, as well as along corridors of greater morning to afternoon insolation. Have maintained a large level 1-MRGL risk for both severe wind and hail. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/23/2024 Read more

MD 0905 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290... FOR EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0905 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...East Texas...Northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290... Valid 230158Z - 230400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and isolated large hail will likely continue through late evening from east Texas into northern Louisiana. DISCUSSION...A large MCS is currently ongoing from east Texas into northern Louisiana and far southern Arkansas. The MCS is located within a moderately unstable airmass, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range across much of the Sabine River Valley. In addition, the RAP shows a belt of strong mid-level flow from north Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. This stronger flow is being sampled by the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Polk, LA, which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. RAP forecast soundings nearby have steep mid-level lapse rates with veering winds from the surface to near 700 mb. This should continue to support a severe threat with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. Wind damage will be the greatest threat, although isolated large hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31259274 31879204 32299178 32689177 32929196 33099223 33089264 32959287 32589335 32189417 31949512 31699551 31179562 30809543 30769452 30959356 31259274 Read more

WW 0290 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 290 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-027-057-073-091-099-103-139-230440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-043-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-127- 230440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC005-067-073-183-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-459- 230440- Read more

WW 290 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 222155Z - 230400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of supercells will persist and spread east-southeastward through the evening, with some upscale growth likely. While a tornado or two may occur with favorable storm interactions, very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow winds up to 75 mph will be the main threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Tyler TX to 30 miles east of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284...WW 285...WW 286...WW 287...WW 288...WW 289... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0290 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 290 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW TYR TO 15 NE TXK. ..BROYLES..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-027-057-073-091-099-103-139-230340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-043-049-061-073-081-085-111-119-127- 230340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE UNION WEBSTER WINN TXC005-067-073-183-203-315-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-459- 230340- Read more

WW 0291 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 291 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CLL TO 45 NW UTS TO 40 SSE TYR. ..BROYLES..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 291 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC225-313-339-373-407-455-471-230340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0291 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 291 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CLL TO 45 NW UTS TO 40 SSE TYR. ..BROYLES..05/23/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 291 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC225-313-339-373-407-455-471-230340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 291 TORNADO TX 222340Z - 230500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday night from 640 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A large supercell cluster with a history of severe wind gusts/hail will likely continue east-southeastward for the next few hours. The storm environment will favor gusts up to 80 mph and large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, in addition to the potential for a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles south of Temple TX to 50 miles north northeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 286...WW 287...WW 288...WW 289...WW 290... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0904 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290... FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0904 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southwest Arkansas...Northwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290... Valid 230024Z - 230230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and large hail will likely continue for a few more hours across parts of the Ark-La-Tex. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing from northeast Texas eastward into southwestern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. These storms are located on the northern edge of a strongly unstable airmass. Forecast soundings in the Ark-La-Tex from the RAP have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This should support supercell development, with a potential for large hail and wind damage. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the more intense line segments. This threat is expected to persist for a few more hours, but could become more isolated as instability begins to decrease across the Ark-La-Tex during the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32049272 31949360 32099432 32459514 32979583 33329590 33549544 33499375 33399275 33139231 32669224 32049272 Read more

MD 0902 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 286... FOR CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0902 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Central and East Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 286... Valid 222308Z - 230115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail will continue for a few more hours across parts of central and east Texas. As the severe threat moves toward the eastern edge of WW 286, a local extension or new watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Fort Worth shows a small cluster of intense storms in the northern Texas Hill Country, in Lampasas, Coryell, and McLennan counties. Multiple supercells are ongoing, and one of the storms has had a persistent circulation. This cluster of storms will continue to move eastward into a corridor of extreme instability, where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. The nearest WSR-88D VWP, located at Granger, TX has 0-6 km shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity fluctuating in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range over the last half hour. This environment should be favorable for supercells with a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. Supercells will also be capable of isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may accompany the most intense updrafts. Also, radar suggests that damaging winds will be likely near the strongest downdrafts, and winds could exceed 70 knots locally. ..Broyles.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30629884 30829975 31080006 31370011 31669994 31919953 31999788 31869614 31719559 31489529 31149528 30859538 30599566 30459616 30449694 30629884 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight from the Mid-South to the Northeast. ...01Z Update... Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA. Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into western PA. Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the more sustained updrafts. ..Grams.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight from the Mid-South to the Northeast. ...01Z Update... Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA. Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into western PA. Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the more sustained updrafts. ..Grams.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight from the Mid-South to the Northeast. ...01Z Update... Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA. Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into western PA. Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the more sustained updrafts. ..Grams.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight from the Mid-South to the Northeast. ...01Z Update... Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA. Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into western PA. Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the more sustained updrafts. ..Grams.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight from the Mid-South to the Northeast. ...01Z Update... Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA. Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into western PA. Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the more sustained updrafts. ..Grams.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight from the Mid-South to the Northeast. ...01Z Update... Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA. Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into western PA. Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the more sustained updrafts. ..Grams.. 05/23/2024 Read more