Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks... A potentially significant severe-weather episode is possible on Saturday, especially from near the Red River northward across much of OK and into eastern KS. All severe hazards are expected. An upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to shift east over the Plains. As this occurs, deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase over the region. A 500 mb jet around 60-70 kt is forecast along with an area of strong upper divergence. At the surface, a warm front is expected to lift quickly northward as southerly low-level flow increases in response to deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. The warm front should impinge on southeast NE by 00z, extending east/southeast along the I-70 corridor. The warm front will continue to lift northward into IA overnight. Meanwhile, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from west-central KS to western OK and central TX. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F will extend north into southern KS (and east across the Ozarks), with 60s F into southern NE/IA. Very steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong to extreme destabilization. By 21-00z large-scale ascent is expected to overspread the dryline and northward-advancing warm front. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but at least widely scattered storms are expected. Nevertheless, an increasing low-level jet (850 mb southwesterly winds 45-60 kt) and vertically veering wind profiles will support supercells. Given expected instability, development may be rapid and intense, with storms quickly becoming severe. Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts are all possible, particularly from near the Red River into OK and eastern KS. It is possible with time that one or more bowing segments will develop by late evening into the overnight hours as convection spreads east into the Ozarks. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential will accompany this activity. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region on Saturday. A very moist and unstable airmass will present, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity. Deep boundary-layer mixing and effective shear around 20-30 kt amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support sporadic strong storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks... A potentially significant severe-weather episode is possible on Saturday, especially from near the Red River northward across much of OK and into eastern KS. All severe hazards are expected. An upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to shift east over the Plains. As this occurs, deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase over the region. A 500 mb jet around 60-70 kt is forecast along with an area of strong upper divergence. At the surface, a warm front is expected to lift quickly northward as southerly low-level flow increases in response to deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. The warm front should impinge on southeast NE by 00z, extending east/southeast along the I-70 corridor. The warm front will continue to lift northward into IA overnight. Meanwhile, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from west-central KS to western OK and central TX. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F will extend north into southern KS (and east across the Ozarks), with 60s F into southern NE/IA. Very steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong to extreme destabilization. By 21-00z large-scale ascent is expected to overspread the dryline and northward-advancing warm front. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but at least widely scattered storms are expected. Nevertheless, an increasing low-level jet (850 mb southwesterly winds 45-60 kt) and vertically veering wind profiles will support supercells. Given expected instability, development may be rapid and intense, with storms quickly becoming severe. Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts are all possible, particularly from near the Red River into OK and eastern KS. It is possible with time that one or more bowing segments will develop by late evening into the overnight hours as convection spreads east into the Ozarks. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential will accompany this activity. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region on Saturday. A very moist and unstable airmass will present, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity. Deep boundary-layer mixing and effective shear around 20-30 kt amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support sporadic strong storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks... A potentially significant severe-weather episode is possible on Saturday, especially from near the Red River northward across much of OK and into eastern KS. All severe hazards are expected. An upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to shift east over the Plains. As this occurs, deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase over the region. A 500 mb jet around 60-70 kt is forecast along with an area of strong upper divergence. At the surface, a warm front is expected to lift quickly northward as southerly low-level flow increases in response to deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. The warm front should impinge on southeast NE by 00z, extending east/southeast along the I-70 corridor. The warm front will continue to lift northward into IA overnight. Meanwhile, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from west-central KS to western OK and central TX. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F will extend north into southern KS (and east across the Ozarks), with 60s F into southern NE/IA. Very steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong to extreme destabilization. By 21-00z large-scale ascent is expected to overspread the dryline and northward-advancing warm front. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but at least widely scattered storms are expected. Nevertheless, an increasing low-level jet (850 mb southwesterly winds 45-60 kt) and vertically veering wind profiles will support supercells. Given expected instability, development may be rapid and intense, with storms quickly becoming severe. Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts are all possible, particularly from near the Red River into OK and eastern KS. It is possible with time that one or more bowing segments will develop by late evening into the overnight hours as convection spreads east into the Ozarks. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential will accompany this activity. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region on Saturday. A very moist and unstable airmass will present, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity. Deep boundary-layer mixing and effective shear around 20-30 kt amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support sporadic strong storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks... A potentially significant severe-weather episode is possible on Saturday, especially from near the Red River northward across much of OK and into eastern KS. All severe hazards are expected. An upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to shift east over the Plains. As this occurs, deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase over the region. A 500 mb jet around 60-70 kt is forecast along with an area of strong upper divergence. At the surface, a warm front is expected to lift quickly northward as southerly low-level flow increases in response to deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. The warm front should impinge on southeast NE by 00z, extending east/southeast along the I-70 corridor. The warm front will continue to lift northward into IA overnight. Meanwhile, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from west-central KS to western OK and central TX. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F will extend north into southern KS (and east across the Ozarks), with 60s F into southern NE/IA. Very steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong to extreme destabilization. By 21-00z large-scale ascent is expected to overspread the dryline and northward-advancing warm front. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but at least widely scattered storms are expected. Nevertheless, an increasing low-level jet (850 mb southwesterly winds 45-60 kt) and vertically veering wind profiles will support supercells. Given expected instability, development may be rapid and intense, with storms quickly becoming severe. Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts are all possible, particularly from near the Red River into OK and eastern KS. It is possible with time that one or more bowing segments will develop by late evening into the overnight hours as convection spreads east into the Ozarks. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential will accompany this activity. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region on Saturday. A very moist and unstable airmass will present, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity. Deep boundary-layer mixing and effective shear around 20-30 kt amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support sporadic strong storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

MD 0906 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...south-central and southeastern Oklahoma...and into western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230707Z - 230900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/locally severe storms will likely persist over the next few hours. Hail in the 1" to 1.75" range, and possibly a strong/damaging gust or two, will be possible with the strongest storms. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a gradually expanding cluster of storms over south-central Oklahoma. The storms are not well-depicted by any recent CAM runs, but are occurring in tandem with a weak cyclonic mid-level circulation evident in water vapor imagery, and near the nose of an associated 40 kt southerly low-level jet. The resulting QG forcing, co-located with an axis of 1500 to 2000 J/kg slightly elevated CAPE, should allow continuance of the ongoing storms, and possibly a minor increase in storm coverage. Latest area VWP data shows weakly veering flow through the cloud-bearing layer (roughly 850mb to 150 mb), that increases with height -- particularly at mid to upper levels. The resulting effective-layer (LCL to mid-cloud depth) supports potential for organized/rotating storms. With storms slightly elevated atop a modestly stable layer, primary risk should remain large hail, though a stronger gust or two cannot be ruled out. Overall, with risk expected to remain isolated to a couple of the strongest storms, current expectations are that wW issuance should remain unnecessary. ..Goss/Edwards.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34389803 34829789 35359650 35959465 35749371 35019372 34669365 34169318 33539344 33759562 34389803 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will progress eastward across the central and western CONUS Friday, while a related belt of moderate westerlies aloft overspreads a dry and deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest. A mid-level shortwave trough digging near the Pacific coastline will move onshore near central CA and the Great Basin, promoting a deepening surface low just ahead of it. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield breezy surface winds late Friday afternoon into early Friday evening, and combine with low RH across much of AZ and NM. The highest chances for a few hours of critical fire weather conditions will likely develop over northeast AZ and far western NM. However, these conditions will only overlap a small area of receptive fuels. Therefore, the Critical area has been removed for the aforementioned region. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Confidence continues to increase with regards to sustained wind speeds reaching and exceeding 20 mph across several areas this afternoon. The Critical area has been expanded eastward slightly across more of the western TX Panhandle, where higher wind speeds appear likely. This increased southwest surface flow is anticipated as a lee surface trough deepens this afternoon, and momentum transfer from aloft occurs in a deeply mixed air mass. The Critical area was also expanded northwestward near the Zuni Mountains. Widespread single-digit RH will also accompany the breezy conditions. Fuels across the region are likely becoming more receptive given a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent warm, dry conditions. ..Barnes.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley vicinity on Friday. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... Shortwave upper ridging is forecast over the upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early on Friday. To the west, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will pivot northeast across the Upper Midwest. This will result in height falls across the Midwest. At the same time, a surface low over MN will lift north/northeast into western Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east through the period. The front is expected to be oriented from the eastern Dakotas/lower MO Valley/eastern KS Friday morning, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to southern IL/MO by Saturday morning. The southern/western extent of this boundary will stall over northwest TX into central OK as a weak low develops over northwest TX. A dryline will extend southward from this low across central TX. Across the southern/southeast U.S., upper flow will generally be westerly, but also around 50 kt at 500 mb. Some guidance suggest convection may be ongoing across the Mid-South vicinity. A convectively enhanced MCV associated with this remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could focus thunderstorm potential across parts of TN into northern portions of MS/AL/GA. ...Midwest... A seasonally moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be in place ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing along the front Friday morning across central IA into northeast KS/northwest MO. As this convection spreads east into strong instability, storm intensification is expected. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard given a likely more linear storm mode. With stronger cells within the line, or any semi-discrete convection that can develop, large hail will be possible. The timing and eastward extent of severe potential is a bit uncertain into the evening and some eastward adjustments to the Slight risk area is possible in subsequent outlooks. ...Mid-South/TN Valley to GA/SC... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region on Friday. Some guidance also suggest an MCV related to remnant convection in the Day 1/Thu period of AR/MS will migrate across the TN Valley. These features will enhance vertical shear amid a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will also be spread across TN/MS/AL/GA. Elongated hodographs and marginal supercell wind profiles suggest hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Damaging gusts also will be possible given steep low-level lapse rates and a fairly dry EML. If trends continue, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast OK into the ArkLaTex Vicinity... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that isolated to widely scattered storms will develop near the dryline during the late afternoon/early evening. A very moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will result in strong instability (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg). Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with long/straight hodographs present. Large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. With time, one or more cluster of storms may develop and shift east/southeast during the evening/early overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging gusts and hail. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Read more