Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0351 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1072 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico and the southwestern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 300218Z - 300315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized threat of marginally severe hail around 1-1.75" in diameter and severe wind gusts will be possible over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has rapidly developed along an outflow boundary across portions of far eastern NM. Recent radar imagery from KFDX and KAMA indicates there are two significant updrafts very close to the KFDX radar, with the southern most one being a supercell. Maintenance of these updrafts should remain favorable for at least another 1-2 hours considering increasing deep layer shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and LLJ enhancement juxtaposed with a narrow instability axis just to their east. As these storms progress even further east later tonight, they will encounter increasing CINH and poorer mid-level lapse rates. A WW is not likely at this time as coverage should remain fairly limited. ..Barnes/Hart.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34640369 35240379 35560316 35590265 35520215 35170189 34730196 34310236 34300284 34340328 34430356 34640369 Read more

WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE RTN TO 20 NNW LHX TO 35 WSW SNY TO 15 ENE SNY TO 55 ENE CDR. ..MOORE..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-063-071-073-075-089-095-099-115-121-125- 300240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-300240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-029-049-057-069-075-101-135-300240- NE Read more

WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE RTN TO 20 NNW LHX TO 35 WSW SNY TO 15 ENE SNY TO 55 ENE CDR. ..MOORE..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-063-071-073-075-089-095-099-115-121-125- 300240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-300240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-029-049-057-069-075-101-135-300240- NE Read more

WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE RTN TO 20 NNW LHX TO 35 WSW SNY TO 15 ENE SNY TO 55 ENE CDR. ..MOORE..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-063-071-073-075-089-095-099-115-121-125- 300240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-300240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-029-049-057-069-075-101-135-300240- NE Read more

WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE RTN TO 20 NNW LHX TO 35 WSW SNY TO 15 ENE SNY TO 55 ENE CDR. ..MOORE..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-063-071-073-075-089-095-099-115-121-125- 300240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-300240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-029-049-057-069-075-101-135-300240- NE Read more

WW 350 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 292100Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Far Western Kansas Western Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the region, with bouts of large hail and locally damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Chadron NE to 15 miles south southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 349... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DGW TO 20 W 4BQ TO 25 SE OLF TO 35 WNW ISN TO 85 NNW ISN. ..MOORE..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-083-109-300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-300240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DGW TO 20 W 4BQ TO 25 SE OLF TO 35 WNW ISN TO 85 NNW ISN. ..MOORE..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-083-109-300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-300240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DGW TO 20 W 4BQ TO 25 SE OLF TO 35 WNW ISN TO 85 NNW ISN. ..MOORE..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-083-109-300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-300240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DGW TO 20 W 4BQ TO 25 SE OLF TO 35 WNW ISN TO 85 NNW ISN. ..MOORE..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-075-079-083-109-300240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-300240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-300240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 349 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 292010Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 349 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Western North Dakota Western South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and generally move northeastward across the region through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Wolf Point MT to 85 miles southwest of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W TAD TO 15 ENE PUB TO 30 NNW LIC TO 25 WSW SNY TO 30 NW CDR. ..LYONS..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-075-089-095-099-115-121- 125-300140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-181-199-300140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC005-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-123-135-161-300140- Read more

MD 1071 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350... FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...The High Plains of Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 350... Valid 292255Z - 300100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 350 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat of severe damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and possibly a land spout or two. DISCUSSION...A few clusters of robust updrafts continue to slowly progress eastward off the higher terrain of the NE Panhandle and eastern CO plains. These thunderstorms developed within a lee surface trough/dryline, within an environment characterized by very steep mid and low-level lapse rates, relatively weak deep layer shear, and enhanced surface vorticity. The latter, and localized pockets of enhanced stretching, will continue to support non-zero probabilities for landspouts. In addition, as the evening progresses, continued cell mergers combined with inverted V soundings/large downdraft CAPE could promote severe wind gusts via wet downbursts. Before then, isolated hail stones up to 1-1.75" in diameter will remain possible. ..Barnes.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37060302 37740344 39870402 41090409 42970378 42960215 37530148 37090205 37060302 Read more

WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SHR TO 10 S 4BQ TO 25 NE 4BQ TO 30 SSE GDV TO 15 N SDY TO 70 NNW ISN. ..LYONS..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-025-109-300140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER FALLON WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-023-025-033-041-053-087-089-105-300140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK WILLIAMS SDC019-033-047-063-081-093-102-103-105-300140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ...High Plains... At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500 mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening, which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe threat should gradually become marginal. Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 05/30/2024 Read more