Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible to the east of the southern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will continue to become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains. In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. Inland of the California/Baja coast into the lower Mississippi Valley, it appears that this regime will include at least a couple of embedded low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is forecast to generally remain confined to the southern Great Plains into the northwestern Gulf coast and lower Rio Grande vicinity, but modest low-level moistening is possible ahead of the lead wave, across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z Sunday. Beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air continuing to advect eastward into the southern Great Plains, moderate to large CAPE may once again develop across much of Texas, particularly to the east of the South Plains. ...South Central U.S... Latest model output is not much clearer concerning potential convective evolution for Friday through Friday night. A large portion of the southern Great Plains vicinity may be impacted by convection today through tonight, and it remains uncertain how much of a stabilizing influence this may for Friday. In general, models continue to suggest that a prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex may evolve and be in the process of migrating eastward near/north of the Red River Valley by 12Z Friday. This may be preceded by weak low/mid-level warm advection driven storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, with renewed convective development also occurring in a trailing warm advection regime across northwest Texas. Much more uncertain is the extent of associated convective outflow and continuing convective development potentially surging southward across north central/central and/or southeast Texas. Convection allowing output is rather diverse. Some model output continues to suggest potential for the northwest Texas convection to grow upscale and organize along the modifying trailing flank of the initial convective outflow during the day. There would seem to be potential for this activity to acquire inflow of moist air characterized by large CAPE as it propagates through south central/possibly southeast Texas, but it also possible that warming elevated mixed-layer air may prove inhibitive. It is also possible that convection on the leading edge of the initial forward propagating outflow could reintensify in a less strongly capped, and destabilizing environment with heating, across the mid/upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain. Destabilization ahead of the initial MCV may also become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development as it migrates across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas during the day. Regardless of the particular evolution, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe wind and hail, given the conditional/potential convective instability. Deep-layer flow and shear will remain modest, but upscale growing clusters may include evolving mesoscale vortices accompanied strengthening rear inflow with potential to produce sustained strong to severe surface gusts. ...Lee of Southern Rockies... Downstream of a low-amplitude wave progressing into the Southwest, moistening easterly upslope flow may become characterized by modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/jg by early Friday evening. Although shear may be modest as well, scattered thunderstorm development off the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains could intensify while spreading into the adjacent plains, and pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind before weakening Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains and central High Plains, where large hail and wind damage will be possible. The greatest severe threat should be in parts of west Texas, where hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur. A more isolated severe threat is expected further east across parts of the central Plains, Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northern High Plains today, as west-northwesterly mid-level flow remains over much of the southern and central Plains. An MCS is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over parts of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. This convection is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex during the day, and could be accompanied by a marginal severe threat. Further to the west, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern High Plains during the day. A moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the shortwave trough across much of the region. During the afternoon, a dryline will likely become focused from southeast Colorado extending southward across far eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm during the afternoon, scattered convective initiation is expected along and to the east of the dryline. As storm coverage increases during the late afternoon and early to mid evening, MCS development will become likely. The airmass to the east of the dryline is forecast to become moderately to strongly unstable by afternoon. The deterministic models suggest that MLCAPE will reach the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings during the late afternoon near the western edge of the moist sector have surface dewpoints in the upper 50s F with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. As cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening, hailstones over 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant storms. The greatest threat for large hail is expected from near Amarillo southward to near Lubbock, where the combination of mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be most favorable. An isolated tornado threat could also develop, and will be dependent upon mesoscale factors. As an MCS organizes and moves eastward into western Oklahoma and the Texas Low Rolling Plains during the evening, a mixed mode is expected with supercell structures and short line segments. A threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail appears likely to continue through much of the evening. An isolated and marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as the MCS moves southeastward across central and east Texas. ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Westerly to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across much of the north-central U.S. Low-level moisture advection will take place across much of the region. Surface dewpoints should increase into the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s F from parts of northeastern Colorado east-northeastward into eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. As surface temperatures warm across this moist airmass, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. A few clusters may persist and have potential for a severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP forecast soundings from near North Platte eastward into northeast Nebraska have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. In addition, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible with the stronger storms. However, the lack of large-scale ascent will likely keep convective coverage more isolated, with any severe threat remaining widely spaced. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/30/2024 Read more