Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of next week. This is forecast to include building larger-scale ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains, from the developing cyclone southward. Strongest forcing for ascent and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening. This may include a few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster. It currently appears that sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great Plains. A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week. This may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week. This might be accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

MD 1074 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... FOR NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...northwest TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351... Valid 300702Z - 300830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to be diminishing within WW 351, while an isolated severe hail/wind threat should persist farther east in a portion of northwest Texas. DISCUSSION...The longer-lived supercell that produced significant severe in east-central NM, weakened substantially as it shifted eat into the TX South Plains. This appears to be in response to impinging on greater MLCIN, despite larger buoyancy to its southeast. Meanwhile, a cluster flare-up has occurred downstream towards the southeast TX Panhandle. This cluster has shown some organization, although the cluster mode appears to be limiting hail magnitudes. Isolated severe hail will probably remain most prominent within the southwest portion of this cluster development back to the remnant supercell. Localized severe wind gusts may become the overarching threat as the cluster gradually shifts east. How long this threat will last is uncertain, but it's plausible it will continue through the rest of pre-dawn. ..Grams.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34190267 34280186 34610113 34800071 34810037 34679993 34279983 34029997 33880033 33780133 33740216 33900275 34190267 Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LBB TO 40 W LBB TO 40 WNW PVW. ..GRAMS..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC279-300940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAMB THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 351 SEVERE TSTM TX 300555Z - 301000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 351 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Texas South Plains * Effective this Thursday morning from 1255 AM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell may persist for a few more hours while moving slowly southeastward into Texas from New Mexico. The storm environment suggests the storm could maintain intensity, with the potential to produce isolated large hail to 2 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west northwest of Lubbock TX to 10 miles north northeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31015. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074. ..GRAMS..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC017-079-219-279-369-300840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY COCHRAN HOCKLEY LAMB PARMER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1073 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Areas affected...TX South Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351... Valid 300553Z - 300800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 351 continues. SUMMARY...Slow-moving, but potentially long-lived supercell should persist across a portion of the Texas South Plains as it likely tracks east-southeast through the pre-dawn hours. A narrow swath of occasional significant severe wind and hail is possible. DISCUSSION...A slow-moving supercell centered on northeast Roosevelt County, NM appears to have finally be turning to the east-southeast from its initial south-southeast track. This storm has a history of reported very large hail to 2.5 inches at Cannon AFB last hour. West TX Mesonet obs confirm a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points immediately ahead of this supercell across the TX South Plains. With larger buoyancy and a stronger low-level jet relative to last night's intense supercell that similarly tracked across the region, it is plausible that this supercell may become a long-lived one as it moves toward the I-27/US-87 corridor. A narrow swath of significant severe hail is possible early, with an increasing risk for significant severe wind as supercell bowing structures potentially develop. ..Grams/Thompson.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34340307 34280179 34030118 33430097 33090114 33050150 33220249 33760317 34120328 34340307 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms, including a few supercells, may develop to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... In the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing forecast to continue slowly shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, stronger westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S. may trend more zonal Saturday through Saturday night. As ridging across the subtropics remains suppressed, weak zonal flow appears likely to persist across the southern tier of the U.S., gradually developing into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath this regime, seasonably high moisture content air will likely remain confined to the lee of the southern Rockies, but gradually continue advecting eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a lead low-amplitude short wave forecast to approach the southern Appalachians. Downstream of troughing advancing inland of the Pacific coast within both streams, models indicate at least one initially subtle perturbation may undergo amplification, perhaps enhanced by convective development, as it progresses to the east of the Front Range Saturday afternoon and evening. It is possible that another wave may similarly impact the Pecos Valley/Texas Big Bend vicinity, but this potential appears more uncertain due to greater model differences. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... It appears that large-scale mid/upper forcing for ascent will become conducive thunderstorm initiation off the higher terrain Saturday afternoon. This activity is expected to intensify as it propagates into slowly deepening lee surface troughing, where boundary-layer moistening may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Veering wind profiles with height beneath modest westerly mid-level flow probably will contribute to sufficient shear for a few supercells, initially, posing a risk for severe hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. It appears that this convection will gradually grow upscale in the presence of forcing aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, with evolving clusters posing increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts deeper into the plains, before weakening by late Saturday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southwest Texas... Potential storm coverage remains uncertain in the wake of the lead short wave perturbation progressing to the east of the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights may tend to rise during the day. However, mid-level inhibition might not be prohibitive to thunderstorm initiation, at least initially, particularly across parts of southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear probably will remain modest to weak, but destabilization and approach of convective temperatures with insolation may support widely scattered to scattered storms posing at least some risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024 Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073. ..GRAMS..05/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC017-079-219-279-369-300740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY COCHRAN HOCKLEY LAMB PARMER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low fire spread potential is expected Friday. A belt of higher sustained westerly surface winds (15-20 mph), under the base of a mid to upper-level trough, and lower RH will develop across southern WY during the afternoon. However, this region is well displaced from the more receptive fuels found across the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 05/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more