Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across southern New Mexico and far West Texas. However, areal coverage should be rather limited. Additionally, elevated meteorological fire weather conditions may occur across southern Wyoming. However, here, fuels should remain unreceptive to fire starts or rapid fire spread. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM, where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be brief and fairly isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across southern New Mexico and far West Texas. However, areal coverage should be rather limited. Additionally, elevated meteorological fire weather conditions may occur across southern Wyoming. However, here, fuels should remain unreceptive to fire starts or rapid fire spread. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM, where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be brief and fairly isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across southern New Mexico and far West Texas. However, areal coverage should be rather limited. Additionally, elevated meteorological fire weather conditions may occur across southern Wyoming. However, here, fuels should remain unreceptive to fire starts or rapid fire spread. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM, where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be brief and fairly isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across southern New Mexico and far West Texas. However, areal coverage should be rather limited. Additionally, elevated meteorological fire weather conditions may occur across southern Wyoming. However, here, fuels should remain unreceptive to fire starts or rapid fire spread. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM, where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be brief and fairly isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across southern New Mexico and far West Texas. However, areal coverage should be rather limited. Additionally, elevated meteorological fire weather conditions may occur across southern Wyoming. However, here, fuels should remain unreceptive to fire starts or rapid fire spread. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM, where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be brief and fairly isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across southern New Mexico and far West Texas. However, areal coverage should be rather limited. Additionally, elevated meteorological fire weather conditions may occur across southern Wyoming. However, here, fuels should remain unreceptive to fire starts or rapid fire spread. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM, where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be brief and fairly isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across southern New Mexico and far West Texas. However, areal coverage should be rather limited. Additionally, elevated meteorological fire weather conditions may occur across southern Wyoming. However, here, fuels should remain unreceptive to fire starts or rapid fire spread. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM, where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be brief and fairly isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur across southern New Mexico and far West Texas. However, areal coverage should be rather limited. Additionally, elevated meteorological fire weather conditions may occur across southern Wyoming. However, here, fuels should remain unreceptive to fire starts or rapid fire spread. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM, where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be brief and fairly isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 29 17:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. ...Central/Southern High Plains... An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period, likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon. However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during the Day 1 period. More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward, should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around 25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear. Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening and into the overnight period. ...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest Minnesota... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota. Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/29/2024 Read more