Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. Additionally, the Indios Fire northwest of Santa Fe produced a pyroCb yesterday and could produce another one today given the similar environment. In Florida, locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible in central/south Florida away from the expected sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Relatively weak, quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft is expected over the receptive fuels of the Southwest this afternoon. Most locations will experience wind speeds less than 15 mph. Very localized meteorological fire spread conditions may develop across far southern NV, where sustained south winds will briefly approach or exceed 20 mph late in the afternoon/early evening. A few thunderstorms over western and southern FL today could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from rain cores, where fuels are becoming ever more receptive. The same will be true along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. Additionally, the Indios Fire northwest of Santa Fe produced a pyroCb yesterday and could produce another one today given the similar environment. In Florida, locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible in central/south Florida away from the expected sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Relatively weak, quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft is expected over the receptive fuels of the Southwest this afternoon. Most locations will experience wind speeds less than 15 mph. Very localized meteorological fire spread conditions may develop across far southern NV, where sustained south winds will briefly approach or exceed 20 mph late in the afternoon/early evening. A few thunderstorms over western and southern FL today could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from rain cores, where fuels are becoming ever more receptive. The same will be true along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. Additionally, the Indios Fire northwest of Santa Fe produced a pyroCb yesterday and could produce another one today given the similar environment. In Florida, locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible in central/south Florida away from the expected sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Relatively weak, quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft is expected over the receptive fuels of the Southwest this afternoon. Most locations will experience wind speeds less than 15 mph. Very localized meteorological fire spread conditions may develop across far southern NV, where sustained south winds will briefly approach or exceed 20 mph late in the afternoon/early evening. A few thunderstorms over western and southern FL today could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from rain cores, where fuels are becoming ever more receptive. The same will be true along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. Additionally, the Indios Fire northwest of Santa Fe produced a pyroCb yesterday and could produce another one today given the similar environment. In Florida, locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible in central/south Florida away from the expected sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Relatively weak, quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft is expected over the receptive fuels of the Southwest this afternoon. Most locations will experience wind speeds less than 15 mph. Very localized meteorological fire spread conditions may develop across far southern NV, where sustained south winds will briefly approach or exceed 20 mph late in the afternoon/early evening. A few thunderstorms over western and southern FL today could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from rain cores, where fuels are becoming ever more receptive. The same will be true along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. Additionally, the Indios Fire northwest of Santa Fe produced a pyroCb yesterday and could produce another one today given the similar environment. In Florida, locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible in central/south Florida away from the expected sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Relatively weak, quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft is expected over the receptive fuels of the Southwest this afternoon. Most locations will experience wind speeds less than 15 mph. Very localized meteorological fire spread conditions may develop across far southern NV, where sustained south winds will briefly approach or exceed 20 mph late in the afternoon/early evening. A few thunderstorms over western and southern FL today could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from rain cores, where fuels are becoming ever more receptive. The same will be true along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. Additionally, the Indios Fire northwest of Santa Fe produced a pyroCb yesterday and could produce another one today given the similar environment. In Florida, locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible in central/south Florida away from the expected sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Relatively weak, quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft is expected over the receptive fuels of the Southwest this afternoon. Most locations will experience wind speeds less than 15 mph. Very localized meteorological fire spread conditions may develop across far southern NV, where sustained south winds will briefly approach or exceed 20 mph late in the afternoon/early evening. A few thunderstorms over western and southern FL today could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from rain cores, where fuels are becoming ever more receptive. The same will be true along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Isolated dry thunderstorms remain possible along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. Additionally, the Indios Fire northwest of Santa Fe produced a pyroCb yesterday and could produce another one today given the similar environment. In Florida, locally elevated fire weather conditions remain possible in central/south Florida away from the expected sea breeze thunderstorms. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Relatively weak, quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft is expected over the receptive fuels of the Southwest this afternoon. Most locations will experience wind speeds less than 15 mph. Very localized meteorological fire spread conditions may develop across far southern NV, where sustained south winds will briefly approach or exceed 20 mph late in the afternoon/early evening. A few thunderstorms over western and southern FL today could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from rain cores, where fuels are becoming ever more receptive. The same will be true along and east of the central mountain chain in New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1093 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... FOR UPPER TX COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0857 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Upper TX Coast into southwest LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359... Valid 311357Z - 311530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated damaging-wind threat could spread into parts of extreme southwest Louisiana later this morning. DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a long-lived QLCS is moving slowly eastward near the upper TX coast this morning, with the stronger portion of the QLCS currently moving offshore farther southwest. The 12Z LCH sounding depicted moderate MUCAPE, but also near-surface stability and only modest low-level flow. Somewhat warmer and more unstable conditions are noted downstream near the immediate coast, where some increasing cumulus has been noted. In areas where continued modest pre-storm heating can occur, some damaging-wind threat could persist through mid morning, though the environment is expected to remain only marginally favorable for organized convection. With the short-term threat expected to remain relatively confined to near-coastal areas of southwest LA, new watch issuance is currently considered unlikely. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30429457 30249367 30149269 29949250 29679252 29349289 29279410 29329415 29449452 30429457 Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LBX TO 10 W BPT. WW 359 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311600Z. ..DEAN..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GMZ355-311600- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 359 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 310850Z - 311600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning from 350 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line with embedded bowing segments will likely persist through the morning as the storms move across Southeast Texas (including the College Station and Houston metro areas) to the upper Texas coast. Damaging winds of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. An isolated tornado or two may also occur with circulations embedded in the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of College Station TX to 15 miles north northeast of Galveston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 358... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31040. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N VCT TO 25 SW GLS TO 20 NNE GLS TO 30 SSE LFK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093 ..DEAN..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-167-321-311540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON MATAGORDA GMZ330-350-355-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MATAGORDA BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more