Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...ArkLaMiss... Daytime heating has been limited across the ArkLaMiss with extensive cloudcover in the area. This limited instability, combined with weak shear, is sufficient to remove the slight risk across the region. See MCD #1094 for discussion regarding the isolated severe threat which remains across Mississippi. ...Eastern Nebraska... A few weakly rotating storms are present across eastern Nebraska with reports of a few landspouts/weak tornadoes. This threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Therefore, 2% tornado probabilities have been added to a confined area of northeast Nebraska to address the potential for a brief tornado or two. ...Southwest into south-central Texas... The outflow boundary from morning convection has moved mostly into Mexico and continues to move south. North of this boundary there is some heating and remnant moisture. Forcing will be limited and thus the severe threat should remain isolated. Therefore, the slight risk has been removed from the Texas Gulf Coast Region. The better potential for a few severe storms remains across the Trans Pecos and Southwest Texas where terrain circulations near the Davis Mountains and heating along the dryline create an environment more favorable for storm development. ...Central into the southern High Plains... The slight risk remains on track from eastern New Mexico into eastern Colorado and vicinity. See MCD #1095 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0360 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0360 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri May 31 20:36:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, may develop across the central and southern High Plains Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will extend from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast Saturday with a series of weak mid-level shortwave troughs extending west from there across the central and western CONUS. The strongest of these will be near the Mid-Mississippi Valley with an associated weak surface low moving northward near the Mississippi River during the day and through the Lower Ohio River Valley during the evening and overnight period. Farther west, some weak lee troughing will occur from the central to the northern High Plains as a shortwave crosses the Mountains, particularly Saturday night. ...Central High Plains... A relatively diffuse dryline will be present across eastern Colorado and Southwest Wyoming during the day with some sharpening and increasing convergence during the afternoon as lee troughing strengthens. Strong heating should erode inhibition by early afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Therefore, expect high-based thunderstorm development across most of the dryline from eastern Wyoming/NE Panhandle to southeast Colorado amid 35 to 40 knots of effective shear. Supercell storm mode will be favored initially, but should transition into one or more clusters by late afternoon/early evening given the deeply mixed thermodynamic profile favorable for strong downbursts. There is an increased signal for a forward propagating MCS to persist into northwest Oklahoma during the late evening, particularly from the HRRR and WRF-ARW. In fact, the HRRR indicates a continued threat through the overnight period into central Oklahoma. However, this is contingent on upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advecting northward and resulting in increasing instability Saturday night across western and central Oklahoma. While possible, the presence of this better quality moisture is quite uncertain given Day 1 outflow boundaries continue to move south across Texas near mid-day Friday and additional convection Friday afternoon/evening which will impact moisture quality. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating will result in an uncapped airmass along the dryline from eastern New Mexico to Far West Texas by early afternoon. A relative weakness in the mid-level flow across eastern New Mexico may limit storm organization somewhat in this region. However, the deeply-mixed airmass and moderate instability will support a large hail and severe wind threat. A more organized storm threat is likely from the Trans Pecos to the Big Bend where a stronger (35-40 knot) subtropical jet streak overspreads the region. A few supercells are expected in this area with the potential for severe wind gusts, 2+ inch hail, and perhaps a tornado. ...Southeast Texas into the Southeast... A moist airmass will be present from Southeast Texas to southern Mississippi on Saturday with strong instability developing by mid afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the sea breeze by mid afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak (~25 knots), but may be sufficient for some multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Better shear will be present closer to the remnant mid-level shortwave trough MCV moving through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but surface heating will be limited in this region which will likely prevent more robust updraft development capable of utilizing this more favorable shear. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, may develop across the central and southern High Plains Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will extend from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast Saturday with a series of weak mid-level shortwave troughs extending west from there across the central and western CONUS. The strongest of these will be near the Mid-Mississippi Valley with an associated weak surface low moving northward near the Mississippi River during the day and through the Lower Ohio River Valley during the evening and overnight period. Farther west, some weak lee troughing will occur from the central to the northern High Plains as a shortwave crosses the Mountains, particularly Saturday night. ...Central High Plains... A relatively diffuse dryline will be present across eastern Colorado and Southwest Wyoming during the day with some sharpening and increasing convergence during the afternoon as lee troughing strengthens. Strong heating should erode inhibition by early afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Therefore, expect high-based thunderstorm development across most of the dryline from eastern Wyoming/NE Panhandle to southeast Colorado amid 35 to 40 knots of effective shear. Supercell storm mode will be favored initially, but should transition into one or more clusters by late afternoon/early evening given the deeply mixed thermodynamic profile favorable for strong downbursts. There is an increased signal for a forward propagating MCS to persist into northwest Oklahoma during the late evening, particularly from the HRRR and WRF-ARW. In fact, the HRRR indicates a continued threat through the overnight period into central Oklahoma. However, this is contingent on upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advecting northward and resulting in increasing instability Saturday night across western and central Oklahoma. While possible, the presence of this better quality moisture is quite uncertain given Day 1 outflow boundaries continue to move south across Texas near mid-day Friday and additional convection Friday afternoon/evening which will impact moisture quality. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating will result in an uncapped airmass along the dryline from eastern New Mexico to Far West Texas by early afternoon. A relative weakness in the mid-level flow across eastern New Mexico may limit storm organization somewhat in this region. However, the deeply-mixed airmass and moderate instability will support a large hail and severe wind threat. A more organized storm threat is likely from the Trans Pecos to the Big Bend where a stronger (35-40 knot) subtropical jet streak overspreads the region. A few supercells are expected in this area with the potential for severe wind gusts, 2+ inch hail, and perhaps a tornado. ...Southeast Texas into the Southeast... A moist airmass will be present from Southeast Texas to southern Mississippi on Saturday with strong instability developing by mid afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the sea breeze by mid afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak (~25 knots), but may be sufficient for some multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Better shear will be present closer to the remnant mid-level shortwave trough MCV moving through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but surface heating will be limited in this region which will likely prevent more robust updraft development capable of utilizing this more favorable shear. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, may develop across the central and southern High Plains Saturday afternoon, before evolving into organizing clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains through Saturday evening. These may pose a risk for severe wind, hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will extend from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast Saturday with a series of weak mid-level shortwave troughs extending west from there across the central and western CONUS. The strongest of these will be near the Mid-Mississippi Valley with an associated weak surface low moving northward near the Mississippi River during the day and through the Lower Ohio River Valley during the evening and overnight period. Farther west, some weak lee troughing will occur from the central to the northern High Plains as a shortwave crosses the Mountains, particularly Saturday night. ...Central High Plains... A relatively diffuse dryline will be present across eastern Colorado and Southwest Wyoming during the day with some sharpening and increasing convergence during the afternoon as lee troughing strengthens. Strong heating should erode inhibition by early afternoon along and ahead of the dryline. Therefore, expect high-based thunderstorm development across most of the dryline from eastern Wyoming/NE Panhandle to southeast Colorado amid 35 to 40 knots of effective shear. Supercell storm mode will be favored initially, but should transition into one or more clusters by late afternoon/early evening given the deeply mixed thermodynamic profile favorable for strong downbursts. There is an increased signal for a forward propagating MCS to persist into northwest Oklahoma during the late evening, particularly from the HRRR and WRF-ARW. In fact, the HRRR indicates a continued threat through the overnight period into central Oklahoma. However, this is contingent on upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advecting northward and resulting in increasing instability Saturday night across western and central Oklahoma. While possible, the presence of this better quality moisture is quite uncertain given Day 1 outflow boundaries continue to move south across Texas near mid-day Friday and additional convection Friday afternoon/evening which will impact moisture quality. ...Southern High Plains... Strong heating will result in an uncapped airmass along the dryline from eastern New Mexico to Far West Texas by early afternoon. A relative weakness in the mid-level flow across eastern New Mexico may limit storm organization somewhat in this region. However, the deeply-mixed airmass and moderate instability will support a large hail and severe wind threat. A more organized storm threat is likely from the Trans Pecos to the Big Bend where a stronger (35-40 knot) subtropical jet streak overspreads the region. A few supercells are expected in this area with the potential for severe wind gusts, 2+ inch hail, and perhaps a tornado. ...Southeast Texas into the Southeast... A moist airmass will be present from Southeast Texas to southern Mississippi on Saturday with strong instability developing by mid afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely develop along the sea breeze by mid afternoon. Shear will be relatively weak (~25 knots), but may be sufficient for some multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Better shear will be present closer to the remnant mid-level shortwave trough MCV moving through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but surface heating will be limited in this region which will likely prevent more robust updraft development capable of utilizing this more favorable shear. ..Bentley.. 05/31/2024 Read more