Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds remain possible across the central/southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Split westerly-flow regime continues across the CONUS this evening. Weak southern branch extends across the Four Corners region into the lower MS Valley, and within this low-latitude belt of modest flow several robust thunderstorm clusters have evolved early this evening. An apparent weak short-wave trough is progressing across the High Plains of CO/NM and this feature appears partly responsible for recent uptick in isolated robust thunderstorms. While west-northwest 500mb flow is modest across this portion of the Plains, low-level inflow is not particularly responsive to this short wave and is seasonally weak, but moist. Isolated thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening with an attendant risk for large hail and gusty winds. Farther south across the Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country of southwest TX, low-level confluence appears to be aiding a few thunderstorm clusters and isolated supercells from Burnet-Concho-MAF region. This activity should propagate slowly southeast this evening with hail being the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 06/01/2024 Read more

MD 1098 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361... Valid 312344Z - 010115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW361 with the risk of damaging winds and hail. Storm coverage could increase this evening though storm evolution is uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2330, UTC regional observations showed widely scattered clusters of strong to occasional severe storms ongoing across parts of eastern/southeastern CO. Thus far, severe storm coverage has remained somewhat limited within a modifying post-frontal upslope flow regime. Still the environment remains broadly favorable for damaging gusts and hail with ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear over much of the watch areas. Later this evening into tonight, additional storm development will remain possible along the I-25 corridor. Numerous weak updrafts are present over the mountains and eastern foothills of the Rockies. Recent hi-res guidance and some observational trend suggest a few of these updrafts may eventually move east and mature with the onset of additional forcing from the nocturnal low-level jet. While conditional, severe storm coverage may increase in the next couple of hours and into the early overnight within the aforementioned favorable environment. Should this occur, hail and damaging winds appear likely, especially over northern and central portions of WW361. However, significant uncertainty in storm evolution remains. ..Lyons.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37000383 36980514 38200489 39520454 39920399 40140366 40180334 40100304 39860270 39550225 39450217 38530205 37090205 37010273 37000383 Read more

MD 1097 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Western Oklahoma Panhandle...Western and Central Texas Panhandle...West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360... Valid 312225Z - 010030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase across the southern High Plains over the next few hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a meso-low over southern Colorado with a surface trough extending southward across east-central New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are developing in the higher terrain of northeast and east-central New Mexico. These storms will continue to move into the lower elevations over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints ahead of the storms generally range from the upper 40s to mid 50s F. This is contributing to about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, according to the RAP. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Tucumcari has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with considerable directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This should support a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts possible, as cells move southeastward into the Texas Panhandle and west Texas later this evening. If a cold pool can become organized, then the potential for severe wind gusts would increase. ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36930333 36610384 35960399 35090396 34350385 34120369 33950327 33930282 34010239 34310207 34790185 35530169 36780184 36930333 Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-041-059-010040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-010040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC017-069-111-117-205-279-341-359-369-375-381-421-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY LAMB MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1098 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361... Valid 312344Z - 010115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW361 with the risk of damaging winds and hail. Storm coverage could increase this evening though storm evolution is uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2330, UTC regional observations showed widely scattered clusters of strong to occasional severe storms ongoing across parts of eastern/southeastern CO. Thus far, severe storm coverage has remained somewhat limited within a modifying post-frontal upslope flow regime. Still the environment remains broadly favorable for damaging gusts and hail with ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear over much of the watch areas. Later this evening into tonight, additional storm development will remain possible along the I-25 corridor. Numerous weak updrafts are present over the mountains and eastern foothills of the Rockies. Recent hi-res guidance and some observational trend suggest a few of these updrafts may eventually move east and mature with the onset of additional forcing from the nocturnal low-level jet. While conditional, severe storm coverage may increase in the next couple of hours and into the early overnight within the aforementioned favorable environment. Should this occur, hail and damaging winds appear likely, especially over northern and central portions of WW361. However, significant uncertainty in storm evolution remains. ..Lyons.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37000383 36980514 38200489 39520454 39920399 40140366 40180334 40100304 39860270 39550225 39450217 38530205 37090205 37010273 37000383 Read more

MD 1097 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Western Oklahoma Panhandle...Western and Central Texas Panhandle...West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360... Valid 312225Z - 010030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase across the southern High Plains over the next few hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a meso-low over southern Colorado with a surface trough extending southward across east-central New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are developing in the higher terrain of northeast and east-central New Mexico. These storms will continue to move into the lower elevations over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints ahead of the storms generally range from the upper 40s to mid 50s F. This is contributing to about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, according to the RAP. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Tucumcari has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with considerable directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This should support a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts possible, as cells move southeastward into the Texas Panhandle and west Texas later this evening. If a cold pool can become organized, then the potential for severe wind gusts would increase. ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36930333 36610384 35960399 35090396 34350385 34120369 33950327 33930282 34010239 34310207 34790185 35530169 36780184 36930333 Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-041-059-010040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-010040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC017-069-111-117-205-279-341-359-369-375-381-421-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY LAMB MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-021-037-041-059-010040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION OKC025-139-010040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC017-069-111-117-205-279-341-359-369-375-381-421-010040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAILEY CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY LAMB MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN Read more