Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains. A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night's thunderstorms could initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity. Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible along the dryline in western OK. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Zonal mid-level flow is expected to continue this weekend as the short-wave trough over the Four Corners moves eastward. A lee low over southeast Colorado will support gusty winds over parts of the Southwest. With warm temperatures and limited precipitation, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southwest into parts of NM and SW Texas... With zonal flow aloft persisting into D2/Sunday, low-level westerly flow is expected to remain enhanced over much of the Southwest. A lee low will further bolster southwest surface winds through the afternoon hours with 15-20 mph gusts likely from parts of eastern AZ, into NM, and southwest TX. Fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. With another dry and hot day expected, widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. A few hours of locally critical fire-weather conditions are also possible with winds sustained closer to 20-25 mph. However, the strongest surface winds are likely to be near the surface low in eastern NM where recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. This should keep any critical conditions brief and relatively confined. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1102 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363... FOR WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...West and Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363... Valid 010454Z - 010700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and hail will exist across parts of west Texas over the next few hours. The severe threat could impact areas to the southeast of WW 363, where a new weather watch, or extension in area could be needed. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery across west Texas shows a well-developed linear MCS located on the Caprock. This line of strong to severe storms is on the northern edge of a strongly unstable airmass, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. This strong instability will likely help maintain convective intensity with the line over the next few hours. In addition, RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This environment will likely continue to be favorable for a wind-damage threat associated with the stronger elements near the leading edge of the linear MCS. The strong instability and steep mid-level lapse rates, evident on forecast soundings, will also support a threat for isolated large hail. ..Broyles.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 33130214 33070290 32880324 32450320 32040298 31770264 31630209 31610106 31809997 32229947 32909930 33859941 34549996 34760092 34410140 33730156 33130214 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS today as a strengthening shortwave trough moves eastward over the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will increase surface winds atop drying fuels over much of the Southern Great Basin and Southwest. High pressure off the east coast will also support relatively dry onshore flow over parts of the FL Peninsula. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. ...Southwest... Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually increase today ahead of a deepening shortwave trough over the Southwest and Four Corners. Bolstered by the strengthening flow aloft, low-level surface winds should respond with gusts of 15-25 mph likely during the afternoon along with minimum RH values below 15%. With little appreciable rainfall in recent weeks, fuels continue to become more receptive due to persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions are likely from portions of the southern Great Basin into the Four corners. ...Florida... High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will support persistent and relatively dry easterly flow over much of the FL Peninsula. With afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s F, RH values should fall to around 30-35%. The overlap of 10-15 mph surface winds, low RH and the lack of recent rainfall should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Confidence is highest that sustained elevated conditions will be most likely over western portions of the peninsula where the lowest humidity is expected. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more