Severe Storms

MD 1105 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0902 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...South-central TX into the middle/upper TX coast vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011402Z - 011600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind possible this morning. DISCUSSION...Storms have intensified this morning from south-central TX into the middle TX coast vicinity, mainly to the north of a weak surface boundary draped across the region. Very rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting strong buoyancy across the region, and additional elevated storm development/intensification will be possible through mid morning. Relatively strong mid/upper-level west-northwesterlies are supporting sufficient effective shear (40+ kt) for some storm organization, including the potential for a supercell or two. Severe storm longevity and coverage remain somewhat uncertain through the morning, but isolated hail and localized damaging gusts will be possible. If trends support an uptick in severe-storm coverage, then watch issuance will be considered. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28759826 29049730 29639566 29979476 29539437 29219474 29039509 28799542 27659669 27679728 27879879 28249899 28559905 28759826 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NE TO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected to develop across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas, this afternoon. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...Central and southern High Plains through tonight... Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across western NE, near the KS/OK border, and along the NM/TX border. Weak low-level warm advection and/or remnant MCVs appear to be driving this convection, though each of the clusters are likely to weaken later this morning. In the wake of this morning convection, a surface front will persist across western NE, with weak lee troughing farther to the south across eastern CO/NM in response to modest westerly midlevel flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by mid afternoon along the surface boundaries and immediately east of the higher terrain, and then move eastward/southeastward onto the Plains through tonight. The environment across southwest TX will favor splitting supercells immediately east of the mountains, where long/straight hodographs (with effective bulk shear 40-50 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg will support very large hail of baseball size (2.75 inches) or larger. Isolated severe outflow gusts will also be possible. Farther north, a few supercells may also form across eastern CO into western NE, where large hail up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible. Upscale growth into a storm cluster or two is also expected later this evening into tonight from southwest NE into western KS and the TX Panhandle, in response to a nocturnal low-level jet and a related increase in low-level warm advection. Large hail will be possible with the initial storms, but the threat should evolve more to severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph with the upscale growth. ...South central/southeast TX into southwest LA this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected today along a stalled front extending from south central TX into southwest LA. Regional 12z soundings revealed strong buoyancy along and south of the boundary, with moderately strong westerly flow above the 500 mb pressure level. A mix of multicell clusters and, perhaps, some weak supercell structures will be possible, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and wind damage. This area may need to be monitored for a little higher wind/hail probabilities this afternoon. ...MS/AL/TN area today... A midlevel trough over the middle and lower MS Valley will move slowly eastward to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight. A couple of different storm clusters will be possible today near and just east of the midlevel trough where the surface warm sector across MS/AL/TN. Deep-layer vertical shear is relatively weak per regional VWPs, but there is some low-level hodograph curvature within a warm advection regime. Given weak-moderate buoyancy where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the upper 60s or greater, and later pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks, a few storm clusters may include embedded, weakly rotating storms capable of producing a brief tornado or two, along with isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/01/2024 Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW LBF TO 50 ESE AIA TO 45 WNW MHN. WW 364 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 011300Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-075-091-111-113-117-171-011300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR GRANT HOOKER LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW LBF TO 50 ESE AIA TO 45 WNW MHN. WW 364 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 011300Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-075-091-111-113-117-171-011300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR GRANT HOOKER LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW LBF TO 50 ESE AIA TO 45 WNW MHN. WW 364 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 011300Z. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-075-091-111-113-117-171-011300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR GRANT HOOKER LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 364 SEVERE TSTM NE 010840Z - 011300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska * Effective this Saturday morning from 240 AM until 700 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few elevated supercells may persist through about sunrise with the potential to produce occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Alliance NE to 20 miles northeast of North Platte NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1104 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... FOR WESTERN TO CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...Western to central NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364... Valid 011108Z - 011245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364 continues. SUMMARY...A marginal and isolated severe hail threat should persist across the southeast portion of WW 364 as it shift towards the US-83 corridor, north of I-80. An additional severe thunderstorm watch farther east is unlikely. DISCUSSION...While the number of supercells has subsided, one probable severe hailer is ongoing over eastern Garden County along with a couple strong cells farther east. Overall environment should support potential for an isolated, lower-end severe hail threat (i.e., 1-1.5 inches in diameter) into mid-morning. With low-level flow becoming more veered in upstream VWPs (GLD and FTG), subsiding moist advection is anticipated. This in combination with eastward expansion of the central High Plains elevated mixed layer should yield eventually diminishing elevated supercell potential later in the morning. ..Grams.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42040195 42000042 41719938 41309906 40729926 40669929 40659988 40690042 40930122 41720223 42040195 Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E SNY TO 30 NE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-075-091-101-111-113-117-171-011240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SNY TO 20 S CDR. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-045-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-161-171-011140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR DAWES GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-013-045-069-075-091-101-111-113-117-123-161-171-011040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BOX BUTTE DAWES GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON MORRILL SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1103 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010811Z - 011015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Potential for isolated large hail should persist through sunrise with a few elevated supercells across the western Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. DISCUSSION...A trio of elevated supercells have formed as a result of a well-advertised overnight increase in low-level moisture northward over the central High Plains. The northwestern most of this trio, near Alliance, appears to be the deepest updraft. With MUCAPE having increased to about 1000 J/kg coupled with moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear, the threat for large hail will probably persist for a few hours through at least sunrise. Low-level flow appears to be relatively modest, yielding some uncertainty on how long the severe hail threat will last. 00Z HREF signal suggests relatively shorter-lived supercells should be expected, although the 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs indicated potential for a longer-lived, more intense storm occurring. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42660296 42330220 41930131 41520105 41100092 40930121 40970205 41140265 41730336 42100373 42470385 42660296 Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0364 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more