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SPC May 31, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024 Read more