Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

WW 0370 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0370 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0370 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0370 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0370 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0370 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0368 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 368 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ALM TO 40 NNE HOB. ..BROYLES..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-020140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC043-103-109-243-301-371-377-389-443-475-495-020140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE CULBERSON JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS PRESIDIO REEVES TERRELL WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0368 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 368 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ALM TO 40 NNE HOB. ..BROYLES..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-020140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC043-103-109-243-301-371-377-389-443-475-495-020140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE CULBERSON JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS PRESIDIO REEVES TERRELL WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UTS TO 35 N LFK TO 35 SSW SHV TO 5 S SHV TO 35 SSE TXK. ..LYONS..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-021-031-043-049-059-069-073-081-085-119-127-020140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-403-405-419-020140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 366 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 012000Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northeast New Mexico Western Oklahoma Panhandle Northwest part of the Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon into the early evening across the Watch area. The stronger storms, including the possibility for a few supercells, will potentially be capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. A few small clusters may eventually evolve towards late afternoon and early evening near the Colorado-Kansas border and pose an increasing threat for severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Clayton NM to 50 miles north of Akron CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1116 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TX AND WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0541 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern TX and western LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367... Valid 012241Z - 020015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds and some hail may continue into the early evening. Storms should gradually weaken to the east. DISCUSSION...Across WW367, the ongoing cluster of severe storms appears likely to continue posing a risk for damaging winds and hail for another couple of hours. The primary supercells responsible for the earlier significant hail reports have shown a tendency for clustering and upscale growth over the last couple of hours. Recent observational trends strongly suggest this will continue with the evolving cluster encountering outflow from another cluster of storms farther south and east. Continued upscale growth is likely as they track eastward toward the TX/LA border. Given the change in storm mode, the risk for damaging winds appears to be increasing, though some hail risk will likely remain possible. Storms should begin to slowly weaken as the continue eastward toward the eastern edge of WW367 this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31429532 31739558 32199556 32729494 32729338 32649300 32189291 31429300 31269314 31279358 31339490 31429532 Read more

WW 0369 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0369 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1117 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368... FOR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368... Valid 012329Z - 020130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to continue across parts of far west Texas over the next several hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Midland shows a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over far west Texas, with several embedded supercells. This cluster is located along the western edge of a strongly unstable airmass, where the RAP has MLCAPE estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this airmass, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Midland has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. In addition, forecasts soundings across far west Texas early this evening have some directional shear in the low-levels with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will favor supercells with large hail. The strongest of cells could produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The storms will gradually move eastward across far west Texas, and a severe threat will likely continue into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32000272 31950381 31750431 31410451 31060449 30470390 29590379 29140341 29200257 29580175 30150152 31190174 31680207 32000272 Read more

MD 1116 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TX AND WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0541 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern TX and western LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367... Valid 012241Z - 020015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds and some hail may continue into the early evening. Storms should gradually weaken to the east. DISCUSSION...Across WW367, the ongoing cluster of severe storms appears likely to continue posing a risk for damaging winds and hail for another couple of hours. The primary supercells responsible for the earlier significant hail reports have shown a tendency for clustering and upscale growth over the last couple of hours. Recent observational trends strongly suggest this will continue with the evolving cluster encountering outflow from another cluster of storms farther south and east. Continued upscale growth is likely as they track eastward toward the TX/LA border. Given the change in storm mode, the risk for damaging winds appears to be increasing, though some hail risk will likely remain possible. Storms should begin to slowly weaken as the continue eastward toward the eastern edge of WW367 this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31429532 31739558 32199556 32729494 32729338 32649300 32189291 31429300 31269314 31279358 31339490 31429532 Read more

MD 1115 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365... FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Far Southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365... Valid 012156Z - 020000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of southeast Louisiana and far southern Mississippi over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Slidell, LA shows scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms across southern Louisiana. These storms are located in a moderately unstable airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE generally from 2000 to 3000 J/kg. RAP forecasts late this afternoon for the same general area have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range, suggesting that the convection will remain unorganized. In spite of the limited shear, surface dewpoints are in the 70 to 75 F degree range, and low-level lapse rates are steep. This should be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail will also be possible. The threat is expected to become more isolated by early evening as the airmass gradually turns over. ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30339220 30799188 30949122 30578994 30118901 29688882 29228923 29118976 29329117 29739220 30339220 Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DAL TO 20 NNE TYR TO 15 N GGG TO 25 NE GGG TO 35 SSW TXK. ..LYONS..06/01/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-015-017-031-069-081-085-119-020040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO NATCHITOCHES RED RIVER SABINE WEBSTER TXC001-005-073-183-203-213-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-020040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 367 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 012035Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 367 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster associated with an mid-level disturbance will likely continue east across eastern portions of Texas into northwest Louisiana this afternoon into the evening. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow coupled with a warm and unstable airmass ahead of these thunderstorms, will probably sustain this thunderstorm cluster into the evening. The stronger thunderstorm cores will be potentially capable of locally severe and damaging gusts and possibly large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Tyler TX to 20 miles north northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more