Severe Storms

MD 1118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...parts of the northern TX Panhandle into western OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 020035Z - 020200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms in southern KS may eventually cluster and move south into parts of the Panhandles and western OK. Additional storms are also possible farther south with a risk primarily for damaging winds and hail. A new WW will be issued shortly. DISCUSSION...As of 0035 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis showed a loose cluster of strong to severe storms ongoing near the KS/OK Panhandle border. Some new development was also noted farther south into TX. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt of effective shear which will likely support some risk for organized updrafts capable of severe wind and hail. Hi-res guidance suggests clustering should continue into this evening, though the southern extent of the severe risk remains unclear. While storms have been slow to organize early this evening, the broadly favorable environment will support a severe risk. A new WW will be issued shortly. ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 36990219 37050103 37040025 37050013 37009851 36959815 36699796 36399814 36029859 35519938 35509979 35520043 35670151 35760202 36050215 36990219 Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFK TO 50 WSW IER TO 15 WNW IER TO 25 ESE SHV TO 30 NNE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-043-049-059-069-073-085-119-127-020240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-403-405-020240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFK TO 50 WSW IER TO 15 WNW IER TO 25 ESE SHV TO 30 NNE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-043-049-059-069-073-085-119-127-020240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-403-405-020240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFK TO 50 WSW IER TO 15 WNW IER TO 25 ESE SHV TO 30 NNE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-043-049-059-069-073-085-119-127-020240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-403-405-020240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFK TO 50 WSW IER TO 15 WNW IER TO 25 ESE SHV TO 30 NNE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-043-049-059-069-073-085-119-127-020240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-403-405-020240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LFK TO 50 WSW IER TO 15 WNW IER TO 25 ESE SHV TO 30 NNE SHV. ..BROYLES..06/02/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 367 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC013-021-043-049-059-069-073-085-119-127-020240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE CALDWELL GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA SABINE WEBSTER WINN TXC005-403-405-020240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1117 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368... FOR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...West Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368... Valid 012329Z - 020130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to continue across parts of far west Texas over the next several hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Midland shows a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over far west Texas, with several embedded supercells. This cluster is located along the western edge of a strongly unstable airmass, where the RAP has MLCAPE estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this airmass, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Midland has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. In addition, forecasts soundings across far west Texas early this evening have some directional shear in the low-levels with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will favor supercells with large hail. The strongest of cells could produced hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The storms will gradually move eastward across far west Texas, and a severe threat will likely continue into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32000272 31950381 31750431 31410451 31060449 30470390 29590379 29140341 29200257 29580175 30150152 31190174 31680207 32000272 Read more

WW 367 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 012035Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 367 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster associated with an mid-level disturbance will likely continue east across eastern portions of Texas into northwest Louisiana this afternoon into the evening. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow coupled with a warm and unstable airmass ahead of these thunderstorms, will probably sustain this thunderstorm cluster into the evening. The stronger thunderstorm cores will be potentially capable of locally severe and damaging gusts and possibly large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Tyler TX to 20 miles north northeast of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected across the central and southern High Plains region, including portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes are the expected risks. ...01z Update... Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected risks for the next few hours. Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be noted with this convection. LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/02/2024 Read more